Reads as: riskier than 26.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
12
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.4 vs natl
CAMPBELL STREET IA 10 LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.4 vs natl
NAP HOLDINGS LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.4 vs natl
BEAR CREEK SRAF GP HOLDINGS LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.3 vs natl
BIRCHWOOD FOUNDATION LLC
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.1 vs natl
BIRCHWOOD HEALTHCARE PARTNERS LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.7 vs natl
BEAR CREEK STRATEGIC REAL ASSETS FUND LP
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
BIRCHWOOD HEALTHCARE PARTNERS LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
NAP HOLDINGS LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
BEAR CREEK SRAF GP HOLDINGS LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
CAMPBELL STREET IA 10 LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
CAMPBELL STREET SERVICES LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
BIRCHWOOD FOUNDATION LLC
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.30
3.15
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.41
0.46
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.38
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.27
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
28.0
3.30
0.41
0.73
2.16
3.38
2.4%
2025Q3
92
28.4
3.16
0.25
0.90
2.01
2.91
0.0%
2025Q2
91
27.1
3.01
0.12
1.08
1.81
2.98
3.7%
2025Q1
90
27.7
3.18
0.00
1.08
2.10
3.31
0.0%
2024Q4
92
25.1
3.39
0.07
1.16
2.16
3.47
0.0%
2024Q3
92
26.5
3.17
0.14
0.92
2.10
3.18
1.6%
2024Q2
91
31.7
2.84
0.32
0.60
1.92
2.83
0.0%
2024Q1
91
33.5
2.75
0.40
0.60
1.76
2.64
0.0%
2023Q4
92
28.0
3.06
0.45
0.74
1.88
3.11
0.0%
2023Q3
92
28.5
2.78
0.39
0.58
1.80
2.87
0.0%
2023Q2
91
31.7
2.79
0.44
0.64
1.70
2.72
0.0%
2023Q1
90
27.3
2.83
0.55
0.42
1.85
2.92
0.0%
2022Q4
92
26.9
3.25
0.44
0.54
2.26
3.13
0.0%
2022Q3
92
30.3
3.53
0.40
0.65
2.48
3.30
0.1%
2022Q2
91
28.0
2.38
0.24
0.83
1.31
2.33
1.6%
2022Q1
90
31.1
2.80
0.20
0.79
1.81
2.80
1.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9
D × 7E × 1G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-10-23
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-11-04
2025-10-23
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-11-04
2025-07-03
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-07-11
2023-05-24
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2023-06-17
2023-05-24
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-06-17
2023-05-24
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-06-17
2023-05-24
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-06-17
2023-05-24
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-06-17
2023-05-24
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-06-17
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
5V+ SENIORS HEALTHCARE FUND GP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-09
current
pecos_ownership
5V+ SENIORS HEALTHCARE FUND, LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-09
current
pecos_ownership
ACD CONSOLIDATED LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEAR CREEK SRAF GP HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEAR CREEK STRATEGIC REAL ASSETS FUND LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BIRCHWOOD FOUNDATION LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BIRCHWOOD HEALTHCARE PARTNERS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BREWER, ANTHONY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAMPBELL STREET IA 10 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAMPBELL STREET SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS SQUARE HOLDINGS LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
DEFRANCO INVESTMENT CO LTD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOLE, ISAAC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOLDCO, IA, 10, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
IAGA SNF DENISON LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
IAGA SNF HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
IAGA SNF PORTFOLIO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-09
current
pecos_ownership
NAP HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
STURTEVANT, AMBER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
VIRTUS EQUITY LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
ISAAC DOLE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMBER STURTEVANT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY BREWER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$198,601
—
$198,601
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$221,629
—
$221,629
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$322,616
—
$322,616
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$78,631
—
$78,631
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$132,815
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 19047
fmr
0
$682
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19047
acs median gross
1
$622
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19047
fmr
1
$788
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19047
acs median gross
2
$745
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19047
fmr
2
$919
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19047
acs median gross
3
$919
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19047
fmr
3
$1,212
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19047
acs median gross
4
$744
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19047
fmr
4
$1,451
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19047
acs median gross
5
$777
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19047
acs median gross
$743
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19047
acs recent mover gross
$701
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 51442
acs median gross
1
$632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 51442
acs median gross
2
$752
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 51442
acs median gross
3
$951
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 51442
acs median gross
4
$524
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 51442
acs median gross
$755
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 51442
acs recent mover gross
$705
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 51442
payment standard 110
0
$781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
payment standard 90
0
$639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
safmr
0
$710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
payment standard 110
1
$902
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
payment standard 90
1
$738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
safmr
1
$820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
payment standard 110
2
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
payment standard 90
2
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
safmr
2
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
payment standard 110
3
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
payment standard 90
3
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
safmr
3
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
payment standard 110
4
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
payment standard 90
4
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51442
safmr
4
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.