Composite
69.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 84.3 | 71.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.45 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 76.6 | 73.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.68 | in index |
| staffing risk | 41.6 | 41.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 8.00 | in index |
| chow risk | 58.1 | 56.5 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 6.70 | in index |
| billing conduct | 16.7 | 20.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 3.85 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 71% fined | CASTILLO NICOLE | 7 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 20.4 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 88.0 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 71.1 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.9 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 73.0 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 41.7 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 78.2 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 58.2 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 70.0 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 72.1 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 73.0 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 73.0 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 41.7 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 41.7 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.77 | +0.19 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 12.00 | +0.12 | |
| Occupancy | 0.74 | -0.12 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 12.00 | -0.80 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.77 | -0.41 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.11 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 4.82 | -0.10 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.43 | 3.39 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.77 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.29 | 3.26 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.48 | 3.44 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 90.8 | 3.43 | 0.77 | 0.55 | 2.11 | 3.29 | 6.9% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 92.3 | 3.40 | 0.78 | 0.55 | 2.08 | 3.30 | 9.4% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 91.8 | 3.27 | 0.68 | 0.56 | 2.04 | 3.21 | 6.6% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 95.2 | 3.32 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 2.09 | 3.31 | 9.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 91.2 | 3.51 | 0.68 | 0.61 | 2.22 | 3.41 | 10.4% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 85.4 | 3.44 | 0.71 | 0.61 | 2.12 | 3.17 | 3.1% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 85.2 | 3.74 | 0.74 | 0.72 | 2.28 | 3.56 | 14.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 84.1 | 3.55 | 0.68 | 0.70 | 2.17 | 3.50 | 21.1% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 88.2 | 3.32 | 0.59 | 0.65 | 2.07 | 3.15 | 12.7% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 90.3 | 3.43 | 0.56 | 0.84 | 2.02 | 3.26 | 17.4% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 94.9 | 2.83 | 0.29 | 0.71 | 1.83 | 2.47 | 14.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 94.8 | 2.90 | 0.36 | 0.76 | 1.77 | 2.64 | 17.6% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 92.3 | 3.27 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 1.86 | 3.01 | 22.9% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 85.3 | 3.58 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 2.21 | 3.21 | 28.7% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 85.5 | 3.48 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 2.20 | 3.17 | 27.7% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 80.6 | 3.58 | 0.77 | 0.58 | 2.24 | 2.60 | 23.6% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-24 | Fine | $9,496 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2025-12-25 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2025-12-25 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | D | 2025-12-25 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-12-25 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-12-25 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-12-25 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2025-12-25 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2025-12-25 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | D | 2025-12-25 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2025-12-25 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-12-25 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-12-25 |
| 2025-02-24 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2025-04-03 |
| 2024-10-10 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-11-24 |
| 2024-10-10 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2024-11-24 |
| 2024-10-10 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-11-24 |
| 2024-10-10 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-11-24 |
| 2024-10-10 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-11-24 |
| 2024-10-10 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-11-24 |
| 2024-10-10 | Health | F0685 | Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services. | D | 2024-11-24 |
| 2024-10-10 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | E | 2024-11-24 |
| 2024-10-10 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-11-24 |
| 2024-10-10 | Health | F0699 | Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent. | D | 2024-11-24 |
| 2024-10-10 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-11-24 |
| 2024-10-10 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-11-24 |
| 2024-10-10 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2024-11-24 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2023-11-18 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASTILLO, NICOLE | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2018-05-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| COVENANT HEALTH | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 1997-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NICOLE CASTILLO | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2018-05-18 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-29 | Hadley Pointe Nursing Rehab & Care | — | — | — | 154 | HADLEY CENTER LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Alliance Health at Coleman | — | — | — | 45 | ALLIANCE HEALTH OF NORTHBOROUGH INC |
| 2025-05-28 | PALM SPRINGS POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 124 | PALM SPRINGS OPERATOR LLC |
| 2025-05-28 | HAMPDEN POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 135 | HAMPDEN OPERATOR LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | BROCKTON POST ACUTE CARE | — | — | — | 169 | BROCKTON OPERATOR LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | HIGHLAND PARK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 195 | HIGHLAND PARK OPERATOR LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | THE CENTER AT ADVOCATE | — | — | — | 190 | THE CENTER AT ADVOCATE LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | Premier Healthcare at Harrington House | — | — | — | 90 | 160 MAIN STREET WALPOLE OPERATOR LLC |
| 2025-02-28 | PORT REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 123 | NEWBURYPORT SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-02-28 | MASCONOMET REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 123 | TOPSFIELD SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-02-28 | SIPPICAN REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 123 | MARION SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-02-28 | NEMASKET REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 102 | MIDDLEBOROUGH SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 25017 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,773 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 25017 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,807 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 25017 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,336 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 25017 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,612 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 25017 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,955 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 25017 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,755 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 25017 | acs median gross | $2,201 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 25017 | acs recent mover gross | $2,657 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 02453 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,390 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 02453 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,781 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 02453 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,346 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 02453 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,737 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 02453 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,673 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 02453 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,247 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 02453 | acs median gross | $2,115 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 02453 | acs recent mover gross | $2,491 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 02453 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,695 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $2,205 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | safmr | 0 | $2,450 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,838 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,322 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | safmr | 1 | $2,580 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $3,366 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,754 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | safmr | 2 | $3,060 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $4,037 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,303 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | safmr | 3 | $3,670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $4,455 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,645 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 02453 | safmr | 4 | $4,050 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |