Composite
25.2 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 88.1 | 58.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.33 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 60.0 | 51.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.85 | in index |
| staffing risk | 10.6 | 10.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 2.04 | in index |
| financial risk | 8.3 | 17.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 1.92 | in index |
| chow risk | 4.1 | 12.5 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 0.47 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 58.2 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 19.4 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 5.7 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 17.4 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 51.3 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 10.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 68.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 48.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 35.3 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 23.5 | A | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 51.1 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 51.1 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 10.7 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 10.7 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.95 | -0.72 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.33 | -0.26 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.50 | -0.18 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.95 | -0.83 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 12.00 | -0.80 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 9.12 | -0.49 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.33 | -0.47 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.56 | -0.29 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.50 | -0.24 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.33 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.31 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 4.13 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.41 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 230.1 | 4.33 | 0.31 | 1.47 | 2.55 | 4.13 | 0.5% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 230.6 | 4.29 | 0.32 | 1.40 | 2.56 | 4.09 | 0.2% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 232.5 | 4.12 | 0.28 | 1.34 | 2.50 | 3.91 | 0.3% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 230.8 | 4.17 | 0.22 | 1.39 | 2.56 | 3.98 | 1.5% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 231.7 | 4.05 | 0.22 | 1.40 | 2.43 | 3.89 | 4.8% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 231.9 | 4.07 | 0.25 | 1.32 | 2.50 | 3.96 | 5.8% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 230.9 | 4.00 | 0.21 | 1.28 | 2.50 | 3.92 | 7.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 228.2 | 4.02 | 0.22 | 1.27 | 2.54 | 3.97 | 7.8% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 217.9 | 4.09 | 0.23 | 1.33 | 2.52 | 4.03 | 7.7% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 220.8 | 4.04 | 0.23 | 1.33 | 2.48 | 3.92 | 4.4% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 225.1 | 3.98 | 0.19 | 1.28 | 2.51 | 3.87 | 4.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 227.2 | 3.88 | 0.19 | 1.20 | 2.49 | 3.81 | 5.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 224.4 | 3.90 | 0.21 | 1.20 | 2.49 | 3.85 | 6.1% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 222.4 | 0.37 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 100.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 221.5 | 4.09 | 0.21 | 1.35 | 2.52 | 3.88 | 11.4% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 218.2 | 4.05 | 0.20 | 1.26 | 2.58 | 3.85 | 10.6% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-27 | Fine | $9,110 | CMS provider data |
| 2025-08-27 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Health · complaint | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | D | 2026-03-13 |
| 2026-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | E | 2026-03-07 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0575 | Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency. | E | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2025-09-30 |
| 2025-08-27 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2025-09-27 |
| 2025-03-19 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-05-16 |
| 2024-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-09-19 |
| 2024-08-27 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-08-31 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-06-28 |
| 2022-04-25 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-25 | Health | F0646 | Notify the appropriate authorities when residents with MD or ID services has a significant change in condition. | D | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-25 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-25 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-25 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-25 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-25 | Health | F0710 | Obtain a doctor's order to admit a resident and ensure the resident is under a doctor's care. | D | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-25 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-25 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2022-05-19 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | E | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | E | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | D | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | D | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | D | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2021-11-30 |
| 2021-10-19 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2021-11-30 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAUREL AVENUE LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2015-04-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2015-04-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CHRISTENSEN, COVEY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2015-04-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| COVEY CHRISTENSEN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2015-04-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MADISON PARTNER | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06071 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,374 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06071 | fmr | 0 | $1,692 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06071 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,432 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06071 | fmr | 1 | $1,777 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06071 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,717 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06071 | fmr | 2 | $2,201 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06071 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,050 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06071 | fmr | 3 | $2,912 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06071 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,471 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06071 | fmr | 4 | $3,514 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06071 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,796 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06071 | acs median gross | $1,801 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06071 | acs recent mover gross | $2,184 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 92373 | acs median gross | 0 | $2,074 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92373 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,732 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92373 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,021 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92373 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,319 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92373 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,932 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92373 | acs median gross | $1,992 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 92373 | acs recent mover gross | $2,153 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 92373 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,266 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,854 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | safmr | 0 | $2,060 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,376 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,944 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | safmr | 1 | $2,160 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,948 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,412 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | safmr | 2 | $2,680 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,905 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,195 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | safmr | 3 | $3,550 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $4,708 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,852 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92373 | safmr | 4 | $4,280 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |