Reads as: riskier than 49.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
STARK JAMES
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
UMANSKIY REGINA
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.52
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.28
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.44
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.56
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
140.9
3.52
0.28
0.99
2.25
3.44
0.0%
2025Q3
92
139.2
3.63
0.32
1.01
2.29
3.46
0.0%
2025Q2
91
135.7
3.82
0.31
1.09
2.42
3.62
1.2%
2025Q1
90
142.7
3.52
0.33
1.06
2.13
3.40
3.7%
2024Q4
92
137.9
3.61
0.31
1.00
2.30
3.49
0.1%
2024Q3
92
143.2
3.35
0.37
0.86
2.11
3.27
2.6%
2024Q2
91
138.9
3.50
0.33
1.01
2.17
3.32
1.4%
2024Q1
91
143.0
3.63
0.38
1.01
2.24
3.38
1.6%
2023Q4
92
141.8
3.56
0.49
0.86
2.20
3.31
2.5%
2023Q3
92
133.8
3.72
0.74
0.75
2.23
3.39
4.5%
2023Q2
91
127.8
3.85
0.73
0.82
2.30
3.64
4.5%
2023Q1
90
130.5
3.87
0.73
0.88
2.26
3.65
7.9%
2022Q4
92
139.5
3.37
0.61
0.71
2.05
3.11
9.5%
2022Q3
92
135.2
3.71
0.69
0.71
2.32
3.58
13.0%
2022Q2
91
136.7
3.93
0.85
0.77
2.31
3.67
26.5%
2022Q1
90
131.4
3.71
0.35
1.06
2.30
3.70
37.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
20
C × 1D × 11E × 2F × 6
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-07-02
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-07-21
2024-12-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-01-31
2024-12-12
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-01-31
2024-11-05
Health · complaint
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2024-11-20
2024-11-05
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-11-20
2024-11-05
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-11-20
2024-09-03
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-09-18
2024-02-28
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-03-18
2023-12-14
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
F
2024-01-31
2023-12-14
Health · complaint
F0809
Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times.
F
2024-01-31
2022-06-09
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-07-15
2022-06-09
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2022-07-15
2019-07-18
Health
F0553
Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care.
D
2019-10-09
2019-07-18
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2019-10-09
2019-07-18
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2019-10-09
2019-07-18
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2019-10-09
2019-07-18
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
C
2019-10-09
2019-07-18
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2019-10-09
2019-07-18
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2019-10-09
2019-07-18
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
F
2019-10-09
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
21
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FRANCISCAN SISTERS OF CHICAGO SERVICES CORPORATION
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2009-01-07
current
pecos_ownership
FRANCISCAN COMMUNITIES, INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
FRANCISCAN COMMUNITIES, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-24
current
pecos_ownership
PARKHILL, ROBERTA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-05-18
current
pecos_ownership
PARKHILL, ROBERTA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-08-05
current
pecos_ownership
RAMIREZ-JUSTIN, ANDREA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-11-18
current
pecos_ownership
RAMIREZ-JUSTIN, ANDREA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
ROSENBERGER, ROBERT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-04-11
current
pecos_ownership
STARK, JAMES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-05-18
current
pecos_ownership
STARK, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-02-19
current
pecos_ownership
UMANSKIY, REGINA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-07-05
current
pecos_ownership
WELSH, PATRICK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2002-11-05
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES STARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
33%
2014-02-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES STARK
CORPORATE OFFICER
33%
2021-05-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REGINA UMANSKIY
CORPORATE OFFICER
33%
2022-07-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT ROSENBERGER
CORPORATE OFFICER
33%
2023-04-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERTA PARKHILL
CORPORATE OFFICER
33%
2021-05-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERTA PARKHILL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
33%
2016-08-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREA RAMIREZ-JUSTIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2020-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREA RAMIREZ-JUSTIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2015-11-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK WELSH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2002-11-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$2,423,769
—
—
—
$220,091
1
—
2024-06-30
$2,036,262
—
—
—
$560,528
1
—
2023-06-30
$1,956,072
—
—
—
$473,839
1
—
2022-06-30
$1,692,315
—
—
—
$362,637
1
—
2021-06-30
$1,345,340
—
—
—
$292,345
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39035
acs median gross
0
$792
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
fmr
0
$933
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39035
acs median gross
1
$859
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
fmr
1
$1,058
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39035
acs median gross
2
$1,106
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
fmr
2
$1,279
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39035
acs median gross
3
$1,290
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
fmr
3
$1,646
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39035
acs median gross
4
$1,442
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
fmr
4
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39035
acs median gross
5
$1,548
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
acs median gross
$1,060
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
acs recent mover gross
$1,218
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44134
acs median gross
0
$933
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44134
acs median gross
1
$856
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44134
acs median gross
2
$1,128
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44134
acs median gross
3
$1,348
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44134
acs median gross
4
$1,454
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44134
acs median gross
$1,132
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44134
acs recent mover gross
$1,205
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 44134
payment standard 110
0
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
payment standard 90
0
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
safmr
0
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
payment standard 110
1
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
payment standard 90
1
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
safmr
1
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
payment standard 110
2
$1,551
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
payment standard 90
2
$1,269
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
safmr
2
$1,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
payment standard 110
3
$1,991
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
payment standard 90
3
$1,629
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
safmr
3
$1,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
payment standard 110
4
$2,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
payment standard 90
4
$1,746
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44134
safmr
4
$1,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.