1061 North Access Road, Calera, OK 74730 · CCN 375519 · chain BGM ESTATE LLC
Composite
18.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
82
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 18.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
BELT MIRANDA
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
PITTS JACI
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
TAYLOR SANDRA
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
BGM ESTATE LLC
12 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
14
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OK median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
1.60
2.78
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.04
0.18
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
1.54
2.72
3.11
—
Weekday total
1.62
2.80
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
76.5
1.60
0.04
0.57
1.00
1.54
0.0%
2025Q3
92
77.6
1.68
0.03
0.55
1.11
1.57
0.0%
2025Q2
91
75.2
1.63
0.00
0.48
1.15
1.35
0.0%
2025Q1
90
70.6
1.74
0.00
0.52
1.22
1.56
0.0%
2024Q4
92
86.7
1.52
0.01
0.42
1.09
1.42
0.0%
2024Q3
92
69.3
1.91
0.01
0.61
1.30
1.85
0.0%
2024Q2
91
64.3
1.92
0.01
0.51
1.41
1.94
0.0%
2024Q1
91
68.8
1.74
0.02
0.48
1.24
1.60
0.0%
2023Q4
92
65.1
2.16
0.08
0.57
1.51
2.01
0.0%
2023Q3
92
75.2
1.83
0.07
0.51
1.26
1.72
0.0%
2023Q2
91
72.5
2.27
0.06
0.52
1.68
2.09
0.0%
2022Q4
92
81.9
1.60
0.02
0.32
1.26
1.44
0.0%
2022Q2
91
76.8
1.38
0.01
0.37
0.99
1.42
0.0%
2022Q1
90
95.2
1.13
0.01
0.20
0.93
0.98
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
24
D × 13E × 8F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-06-12
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-07-21
2025-06-12
Health · complaint
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
E
2025-07-21
2025-06-12
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-07-21
2025-06-12
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-07-21
2025-06-12
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-07-21
2025-06-12
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2025-07-21
2024-01-11
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
E
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0809
Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times.
E
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-02-15
2022-10-21
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
E
2023-01-25
2022-10-21
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
E
2023-01-25
2022-10-21
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
F
2023-01-25
2022-10-21
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-01-25
2022-10-21
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2022-12-15
2022-10-21
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2023-01-01
2022-10-21
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2023-01-01
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
48
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ADVANCED WOUND THERAPY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BELT, MIRANDA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
BGM ESTATE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
CHANCE, GWENDOLYN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-12-28
current
pecos_ownership
CHANCE, GWENDOLYN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
DRENNAN, KAILEE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-06-19
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GILBERT GREEN FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
GRAY, ERIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-04
current
pecos_ownership
HUTCHINSON, DONNA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-29
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, BRYONNA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
KING, SHAWNA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
KING, SHAWNA
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-12-28
current
pecos_ownership
MCEWING, TORIE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
MOBILE WOUND CARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
NORVELL, TELISSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-30
current
pecos_ownership
NS GROUP CONSULTING DIVISION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHARMCAREOK OF DURANT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PITTS, JACI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
PLUMB, IMRAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROGERS, RIGGIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-17
current
pecos_ownership
SACKETT, KEITH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
SACKETT, KEITH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-25
current
pecos_ownership
STEIN ANCILLARY SERVICES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
SWEETEN, MELANIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-09-05
current
pecos_ownership
TAYLOR, SANDRA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-12-27
current
pecos_ownership
TINDAL, MICHELLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
TINDAL, MICHELLE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-12-28
current
pecos_ownership
GWENDOLYN CHANCE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2020-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE TINDAL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2020-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHAWNA KING
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2020-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TORIE MCEWING
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2025-12-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRYONNA JACKSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONNA HUTCHINSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIN GRAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GWENDOLYN CHANCE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
IMRAN PLUMB
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACI PITTS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAILEE DRENNAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-06-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEITH SACKETT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEITH SACKETT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELANIE SWEETEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-09-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE TINDAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MIRANDA BELT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RIGGIN ROGERS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SANDRA TAYLOR
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-12-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHAWNA KING
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TELISSA NORVELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$411,203
—
—
—
$27,701
2
—
2023-12-31
$416,975
—
—
—
$36,499
2
—
2022-12-31
$383,508
—
—
—
$36,081
2
—
2021-12-31
$392,660
—
—
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 40013
acs median gross
0
$658
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40013
fmr
0
$757
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40013
acs median gross
1
$682
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40013
fmr
1
$762
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40013
acs median gross
2
$920
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40013
fmr
2
$1,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40013
acs median gross
3
$1,115
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40013
fmr
3
$1,322
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40013
acs median gross
4
$1,524
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40013
fmr
4
$1,491
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40013
acs median gross
$960
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40013
acs recent mover gross
$984
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74730
acs median gross
2
$974
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74730
acs median gross
3
$1,236
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74730
acs median gross
4
$1,213
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74730
acs median gross
$1,050
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74730
acs recent mover gross
$1,029
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 74730
payment standard 110
0
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
payment standard 90
0
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
safmr
0
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
payment standard 110
1
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
payment standard 90
1
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
safmr
1
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
payment standard 110
2
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
payment standard 90
2
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
safmr
2
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
payment standard 110
3
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
payment standard 90
3
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
safmr
3
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
payment standard 110
4
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
payment standard 90
4
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74730
safmr
4
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.