Reads as: riskier than 85.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+33.0 vs natl
THE WRIGHT GROUP CONSULTING LLC
18 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
11
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
VA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.23
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.26
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.92
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.35
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
148.2
3.23
0.26
0.97
2.00
2.92
0.0%
2025Q3
92
143.2
3.31
0.27
1.04
1.99
3.05
0.0%
2025Q2
91
141.1
3.24
0.31
0.97
1.96
2.98
0.0%
2025Q1
90
136.5
3.32
0.25
0.99
2.08
3.05
1.9%
2024Q4
92
134.5
3.13
0.25
0.91
1.97
2.93
0.0%
2024Q3
92
115.3
3.28
0.30
0.94
2.04
3.08
0.0%
2024Q2
91
107.1
3.41
0.25
1.06
2.09
3.16
0.0%
2024Q1
91
99.5
3.34
0.23
1.11
2.00
3.15
0.1%
2023Q4
92
90.2
3.44
0.22
1.16
2.06
3.18
0.1%
2023Q3
92
74.7
3.60
0.15
1.34
2.12
3.25
5.3%
2023Q2
91
55.5
3.92
0.46
1.39
2.08
3.67
5.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
32
D × 26E × 3F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-23
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2026-06-05
2026-04-23
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-06-05
2026-04-23
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-06-05
2024-06-04
Health · complaint
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2024-05-31
2024-06-04
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-07-12
2024-02-22
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-04-01
2024-02-22
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-04-01
2024-02-22
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2024-04-01
2024-02-22
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-04-01
2024-02-22
Health · complaint
F0710
Obtain a doctor's order to admit a resident and ensure the resident is under a doctor's care.
D
2024-04-01
2024-02-22
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-04-01
2023-11-29
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-11-27
2023-11-29
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-11-27
2023-09-08
Health · complaint
F0573
Let each resident or the resident's legal representative access or purchase copies of all the resident's records.
D
2023-10-13
2023-09-08
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-10-13
2023-09-08
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-10-13
2023-09-08
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-10-13
2022-08-04
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0563
Honor the resident's right to receive visitors of his or her choosing, at the time of his or her choosing.
F
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0801
Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician.
F
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-09-12
2022-08-04
Health
F0888
Ensure staff are vaccinated for COVID-19
D
2022-09-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
19
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FALLS CHURCH OPCO HOLDCO
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DEREK R. VUCICH REVOCABLE TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
FALLS CHURCH PROPCO HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FALLS CHURCH PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
GANNON, COLIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-07
current
pecos_ownership
GANNON, COLIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-15
current
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH GIFT DYNASTY TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
PARKWAY FINANCIAL AND ACCOUNTING SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE WRIGHT GROUP CONSULTING, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VUCICH, DEREK
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
VUCICH, JOSEPH
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
VUCICH, LOIS
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
DEREK VUCICH
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2021-08-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VIERRA COMMUNITIES LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEREK R. VUCICH TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-08-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COLIN GANNON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COLIN GANNON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH VUCICH
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LOIS VUCICH
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,872,848
$158,949
—
—
$1,990
6
—
2023-12-31
$722,758
—
—
—
$3,134
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 51059
acs median gross
0
$1,968
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
fmr
0
$1,953
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51059
acs median gross
1
$1,954
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
fmr
1
$2,015
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51059
acs median gross
2
$2,273
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
fmr
2
$2,246
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51059
acs median gross
3
$2,735
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
fmr
3
$2,835
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51059
acs median gross
4
$3,260
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
fmr
4
$3,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51059
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
acs median gross
$2,276
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
acs recent mover gross
$2,341
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22043
acs median gross
0
$2,070
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22043
acs median gross
1
$1,747
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22043
acs median gross
2
$2,236
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22043
acs median gross
3
$3,026
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22043
acs median gross
4
$2,771
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22043
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22043
acs median gross
$2,174
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22043
acs recent mover gross
$2,200
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 22043
payment standard 110
0
$2,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
payment standard 90
0
$1,917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
safmr
0
$2,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
payment standard 110
1
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
payment standard 90
1
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
safmr
1
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
payment standard 110
2
$2,695
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
payment standard 90
2
$2,205
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
safmr
2
$2,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
payment standard 110
3
$3,399
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
payment standard 90
3
$2,781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
safmr
3
$3,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
payment standard 110
4
$3,993
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
payment standard 90
4
$3,267
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22043
safmr
4
$3,630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.