Reads as: riskier than 83.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
BLACKROCK INC
303 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
VANGUARD GROUP INC
324 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.24
3.28
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.34
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.97
3.10
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.35
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
83.2
3.24
0.34
0.84
2.06
2.97
0.0%
2025Q3
92
84.5
3.43
0.33
0.83
2.27
3.19
0.0%
2025Q2
91
80.3
3.53
0.29
0.84
2.39
3.43
0.0%
2025Q1
90
82.2
3.20
0.30
0.83
2.07
3.15
0.0%
2024Q4
92
80.1
3.21
0.31
0.85
2.04
3.19
0.0%
2024Q3
92
77.5
3.09
0.30
0.91
1.88
2.90
0.0%
2024Q2
91
76.8
3.08
0.31
1.01
1.76
2.93
0.0%
2024Q1
91
80.2
2.96
0.32
1.02
1.61
2.84
0.0%
2023Q4
92
79.9
3.06
0.27
1.05
1.74
2.83
0.0%
2023Q3
92
83.3
2.60
0.26
1.00
1.35
2.38
0.0%
2023Q2
91
85.5
2.04
0.32
0.84
0.88
1.75
0.0%
2023Q1
90
84.5
2.14
0.32
0.87
0.95
1.78
1.2%
2022Q4
92
82.7
2.13
0.31
0.94
0.88
1.79
1.5%
2022Q3
92
83.2
2.23
0.31
0.90
1.02
1.90
4.2%
2022Q2
91
82.5
2.59
0.23
1.02
1.33
2.29
11.8%
2022Q1
90
79.8
2.85
0.25
1.08
1.53
2.48
12.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2025-03-03
2025-02-27
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-03-12
2024-04-11
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
K
2024-06-19
2024-04-11
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-04-30
2024-04-11
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
G
2024-05-02
2024-04-11
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-05-02
2024-04-11
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2024-05-02
2024-04-11
Health · complaint
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
D
2024-05-02
2024-04-11
Health · complaint
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2024-05-02
2018-10-31
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2018-11-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
31
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BIDWELL, GREGORY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLACKROCK INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-20
current
pecos_ownership
DODSON, VICKI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIDD, BRIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-02
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NHC-OP LP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NHC/DELAWARE INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PANTER, LORI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-05-18
current
pecos_ownership
SHERWOOD, WILLIAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHERWOOD, WILLIAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-30
current
pecos_ownership
USSERY, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
VADEN, RYAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-30
current
pecos_ownership
VADEN, RYAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-10-11
current
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-11-30
current
pecos_ownership
BLACKROCK INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2019-03-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2017-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CORPORATION
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2000-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2023-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-11-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN KIDD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY BIDWELL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2000-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORI PANTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-05-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT USSERY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RYAN VADEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RYAN VADEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-10-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICKI DODSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM SHERWOOD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM SHERWOOD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$930,313
—
$506,157
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$629,807
—
—
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$390,442
—
$246,816
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$1,041,927
—
—
$21,918
$31,017
1
—
2020-12-31
$1,347,275
—
—
$554,390
$53,211
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 47041
fmr
0
$722
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47041
acs median gross
1
$451
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47041
fmr
1
$726
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47041
acs median gross
2
$819
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47041
fmr
2
$953
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47041
acs median gross
3
$995
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47041
fmr
3
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47041
acs median gross
4
$1,688
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47041
fmr
4
$1,532
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47041
acs median gross
$839
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47041
acs recent mover gross
$1,042
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37166
acs median gross
1
$460
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37166
acs median gross
2
$779
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37166
acs median gross
3
$1,012
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37166
acs median gross
$813
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37166
acs recent mover gross
$964
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 37166
payment standard 110
0
$1,265
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
payment standard 90
0
$1,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
safmr
0
$1,150
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
payment standard 110
1
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
payment standard 90
1
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
safmr
1
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
payment standard 110
2
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
payment standard 90
2
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
safmr
2
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
payment standard 110
3
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
payment standard 90
3
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
safmr
3
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
payment standard 110
4
$2,222
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
payment standard 90
4
$1,818
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37166
safmr
4
$2,020
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.