319 NORTH OWEN WALTERS BLVD, SALINA, OK 74365 · CCN 375322 · chain BGM ESTATE LLC
Composite
49.7 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
65
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 49.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
TAYLOR SANDRA
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
BGM ESTATE LLC
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
MITCHELL KELLY
17 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OK median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.19
2.78
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.14
0.18
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.90
2.72
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.31
2.80
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
37.8
3.19
0.14
0.93
2.12
2.90
0.0%
2025Q3
92
37.9
3.15
0.15
0.99
2.00
2.91
0.0%
2025Q2
91
36.6
2.18
0.14
0.75
1.30
2.16
0.0%
2025Q1
90
35.4
3.35
0.25
1.07
2.04
3.21
0.0%
2024Q4
92
34.6
3.38
0.34
0.90
2.15
3.23
0.0%
2024Q3
92
35.2
3.45
0.28
0.86
2.31
3.30
0.0%
2024Q2
91
35.9
3.06
0.24
0.89
1.93
2.89
0.0%
2024Q1
91
36.2
2.21
0.23
0.66
1.31
1.97
0.0%
2023Q4
92
38.4
3.00
0.15
1.02
1.82
2.67
0.2%
2023Q3
92
38.4
2.60
0.02
1.05
1.53
2.31
0.0%
2023Q2
91
39.2
2.27
0.00
1.01
1.25
2.00
0.0%
2023Q1
90
36.5
2.49
0.00
1.09
1.40
2.25
0.0%
2022Q4
92
35.6
2.41
0.01
1.11
1.30
1.84
0.0%
2022Q3
92
38.4
1.81
0.09
0.67
1.05
1.50
14.6%
2022Q2
91
38.2
1.92
0.08
0.71
1.13
1.54
14.2%
2022Q1
90
36.6
2.69
0.11
1.15
1.43
2.19
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
18
D × 10E × 6F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-12-18
Health
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2026-02-13
2025-12-18
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-02-13
2025-12-18
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2026-02-13
2025-12-18
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-02-13
2025-12-18
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-02-13
2025-12-18
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2026-02-13
2025-12-18
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2026-02-13
2025-12-18
Health
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
E
2026-02-13
2025-12-18
Health
F0801
Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician.
E
2026-02-13
2025-12-18
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2026-02-13
2025-12-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2026-02-13
2025-12-18
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
E
2026-02-13
2025-12-18
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
E
2026-02-13
2024-06-05
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
D
2024-07-10
2024-03-29
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-05-08
2024-03-29
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-05-08
2023-04-24
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2023-06-15
2023-04-24
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-06-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
10
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BGM ESTATE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2012-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, KELLY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2008-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BYPASS TR CU GILBERT F GREEN TR
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2021-12-06
current
pecos_ownership
TIFFANY SEAY EXEMPT TR
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2022-04-06
current
pecos_ownership
MRTL DEDUCTION TR CU GILBERT F GREEN TR
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2021-12-07
current
pecos_ownership
PHILIP MARION GREEN EXEMPT TR CU GILBERT F GREEN TR
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2021-12-08
current
pecos_ownership
TAYLOR, SANDRA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
PHILIP M. GREEN REVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2019-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLY MITCHELL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2008-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SANDRA TAYLOR
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2012-12-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$265,468
—
—
—
$22,764
4
—
2023-12-31
$270,483
—
—
—
$29,994
4
—
2022-12-31
$244,915
—
—
—
$29,651
4
—
2021-12-31
$305,684
—
—
—
$5,354
4
—
2020-12-31
$120,144
—
—
—
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 40097
acs median gross
0
$915
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40097
fmr
0
$731
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40097
acs median gross
1
$568
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40097
fmr
1
$736
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40097
acs median gross
2
$802
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40097
fmr
2
$937
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40097
acs median gross
3
$1,031
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40097
fmr
3
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40097
acs median gross
4
$836
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40097
fmr
4
$1,409
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40097
acs median gross
5
$538
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40097
acs median gross
$858
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40097
acs recent mover gross
$937
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74365
acs median gross
0
$615
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74365
acs median gross
1
$596
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74365
acs median gross
2
$679
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74365
acs median gross
3
$795
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74365
acs median gross
$678
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74365
acs recent mover gross
$817
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 74365
payment standard 110
0
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
payment standard 90
0
$657
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
safmr
0
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
payment standard 110
1
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
payment standard 90
1
$657
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
safmr
1
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
payment standard 110
2
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
payment standard 90
2
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
safmr
2
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
payment standard 110
3
$1,342
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
payment standard 90
3
$1,098
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
safmr
3
$1,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
payment standard 110
4
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
payment standard 90
4
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74365
safmr
4
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.