Composite
59.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 73.3 | 61.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 16.92 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 53.4 | 43.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.32 | in index |
| staffing risk | 44.1 | 44.1 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 8.48 | in index |
| billing conduct | 34.9 | 33.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 8.05 | in index |
| chow risk | 52.1 | 50.3 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 6.01 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 33.8 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 75.5 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 61.5 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 43.1 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 44.1 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 68.0 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 48.0 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 53.8 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 65.0 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 43.0 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 43.0 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 44.1 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 44.1 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.33 | -1.33 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.80 | -0.28 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.19 | +0.20 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | -0.11 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | +0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.92 | +0.40 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | +0.39 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.33 | -0.21 | |
| Occupancy | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | IA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.38 | 3.15 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.29 | 0.46 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.35 | 2.96 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.39 | 3.20 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 79.5 | 3.38 | 0.29 | 0.80 | 2.29 | 3.35 | 19.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 81.9 | 3.34 | 0.25 | 0.79 | 2.30 | 3.19 | 8.5% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 83.1 | 2.75 | 0.26 | 0.61 | 1.88 | 2.70 | 20.6% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 74.5 | 2.44 | 0.21 | 0.63 | 1.61 | 2.50 | 21.7% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 67.7 | 2.46 | 0.17 | 0.70 | 1.59 | 2.38 | 21.4% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 67.1 | 2.51 | 0.14 | 0.61 | 1.75 | 2.44 | 17.2% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 70.6 | 2.50 | 0.13 | 0.57 | 1.80 | 2.34 | 15.3% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 75.1 | 2.28 | 0.22 | 0.48 | 1.57 | 1.95 | 17.9% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 72.9 | 2.20 | 0.27 | 0.35 | 1.57 | 1.92 | 13.4% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 72.1 | 2.25 | 0.20 | 0.56 | 1.49 | 2.05 | 11.2% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 69.8 | 2.58 | 0.20 | 0.69 | 1.70 | 2.21 | 12.5% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 69.3 | 2.55 | 0.26 | 0.68 | 1.62 | 2.29 | 16.2% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 69.1 | 2.34 | 0.28 | 0.57 | 1.49 | 2.27 | 13.4% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 62.2 | 2.30 | 0.21 | 0.49 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 64.2 | 2.67 | 0.28 | 0.52 | 1.87 | 2.58 | 0.3% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 66.6 | 2.90 | 0.36 | 0.63 | 1.91 | 2.87 | 2.2% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-18 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | E | 2025-10-10 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health · complaint | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | E | 2025-12-19 |
| 2025-10-01 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2025-08-08 |
| 2025-07-16 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | G | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | E | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-01-24 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-01-24 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health · complaint | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2024-07-19 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2024-07-19 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2024-07-19 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | G | 2024-07-19 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2024-07-19 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-07-19 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-07-19 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-07-19 |
| 2024-02-27 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-03-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-06-16 |
| 2023-05-10 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-06-16 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOVETAIL OPCO HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2021-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AZRIA VENTURES LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2021-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HORNUNG, STEVEN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2021-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KAMINER, AARON | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2021-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WILLIAMS, DOUGLAS | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AARON KAMINER | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2021-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STEVEN HORNUNG | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2021-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DOUGLAS WILLIAMS | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-01 | — | DT VALLEY LLC | LONGVIEW HOME INC. | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | St Luke's Regional Medical Center SNF | — | — | — | 20 | NORTHWEST IOWA HOSPITAL CORPORATION |
| 2025-08-01 | Crystal Heights Care Center | — | — | — | 72 | CANFIELD RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | AMS Memorial-Greene | — | — | — | 31 | AMS MEMORIAL-GREENE LLC |
| 2025-02-05 | Chapters Living of Council Bluffs | — | — | — | 102 | CHAPTERS COUNCIL BLUFFS OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Osage Rehab and Health Care Center | — | — | — | 46 | OPCO OSAGE IA LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Iowa City Rehab & Health Care | — | — | — | 89 | OPCO IOWA CITY IA LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Accura Healthcare of Creston | — | — | — | 31 | ACCURA HEALTHCARE OF CRESTON LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Casa De Paz Health Care Center | — | — | — | 71 | OPCO 19TH ST SIOUX CITY IA LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Pleasant Acres Care Center | — | — | — | 46 | OPCO HULL IA LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Cedar Falls Health Care Center | — | — | — | 70 | OPCO CEDAR FALLS IA LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Accura Healthcare of Onawa | — | — | — | 46 | ACCURA HEALTHCARE OF ONAWA LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Grundy Care Center | — | — | — | 40 | OPCO GRUNDY CENTER IA LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 19085 | fmr | 0 | $1,090 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 19085 | acs median gross | 1 | $623 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 19085 | fmr | 1 | $1,148 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 19085 | acs median gross | 2 | $900 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 19085 | fmr | 2 | $1,368 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 19085 | acs median gross | 3 | $900 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 19085 | fmr | 3 | $1,813 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 19085 | acs median gross | 4 | $825 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 19085 | fmr | 4 | $2,046 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 19085 | acs median gross | $849 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 19085 | acs recent mover gross | $683 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 51555 | acs median gross | 1 | $645 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 51555 | acs median gross | 2 | $906 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 51555 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,045 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 51555 | acs median gross | $812 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 51555 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $913 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $747 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | safmr | 0 | $830 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $957 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $783 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | safmr | 1 | $870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,144 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $936 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | safmr | 2 | $1,040 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,518 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,242 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | safmr | 3 | $1,380 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,716 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,404 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 51555 | safmr | 4 | $1,560 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |