Reads as: riskier than 8.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.91
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.35
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.88
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.92
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
46.5
2.91
0.35
0.72
1.83
2.88
0.0%
2025Q3
92
46.4
2.78
0.34
0.74
1.71
2.66
0.0%
2025Q2
91
44.7
2.81
0.36
0.78
1.68
2.68
0.0%
2025Q1
90
43.6
2.87
0.39
0.76
1.72
2.83
0.0%
2024Q4
92
44.3
2.87
0.48
0.69
1.70
2.98
0.0%
2024Q3
92
46.1
2.79
0.51
0.61
1.68
2.62
0.0%
2024Q2
91
44.8
2.79
0.44
0.71
1.63
2.81
0.0%
2024Q1
91
43.0
2.68
0.04
0.90
1.74
2.66
0.0%
2023Q4
92
45.3
2.66
0.33
0.83
1.50
2.22
0.0%
2023Q3
92
47.9
2.45
0.18
0.71
1.56
1.95
0.0%
2023Q2
91
48.0
2.45
0.16
0.70
1.59
1.94
0.0%
2023Q1
90
46.6
4.84
0.22
1.53
3.10
3.88
0.0%
2022Q4
92
47.0
2.58
0.15
0.73
1.70
2.21
1.8%
2022Q3
92
47.7
2.52
0.19
0.63
1.70
2.34
0.6%
2022Q2
91
46.9
2.78
0.21
0.67
1.90
2.63
0.0%
2022Q1
90
41.1
3.19
0.24
0.79
2.15
2.96
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2024-06-19
2024-05-30
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-06-19
2024-05-30
Health · complaint
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2024-06-19
2024-05-30
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2024-06-19
2024-05-30
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
C
2024-06-19
2022-03-07
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2022-04-25
2022-03-07
Health
F0569
Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death.
D
2022-04-25
2022-03-07
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2022-04-25
2022-03-07
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2022-04-25
2022-03-07
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2022-04-25
2022-03-07
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2022-04-25
2022-03-07
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2022-04-25
2022-03-07
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2022-04-25
2022-03-07
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2022-03-31
2022-03-07
Health
F0772
Have an agreement with an approved laboratory to obtain services, if on-site laboratory services aren't provided.
D
2022-04-25
2022-03-07
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
D
2022-04-25
2022-03-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-04-25
2022-03-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2022-04-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
EMBASSY VALLEY VIEW REALTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
EMBASSY VALLEY VIEW REALTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
2020 GSR DYNASTY LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
AARON HANDLER FAMILY DYNASTY TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
AH DYNASTY LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
EMBASSY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
EMBASSY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-22
current
pecos_ownership
GEORGE S. REPCHICK 2020 FAMILY DYNASTY TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
HANDLER, AARON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
HERITAGE EMPLOYMENT SERVICES, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
HERITAGE EMPLOYMENT SERVICES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-22
current
pecos_ownership
JUSCHKA, DIRK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REPCHICK, GEORGE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
REPCHICK, GEORGE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2009-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELSH, SARA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EMBASSY VALLEY VIEW REALTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
EMBASSY VALLEY VIEW REALTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-03-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
AARON HANDLER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AARON HANDLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
50%
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE REPCHICK
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2009-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAGGED RIDGE PR
Individual is director, officer, administrator or key person of provider and related organization
50%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-02-28
hcris_a_8_1
RAGGED RIDGE PR
Individual is director, officer, administrator or key person of provider and related organization
50%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
DIRK JUSCHKA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE REPCHICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARA WELSH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$544,022
—
$210,509
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$456,156
—
$262,272
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$340,977
—
$197,606
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$347,757
—
$186,598
—
—
2
propco
2021-02-28
$6,791
$6,791
—
—
—
2
propco
2020-12-31
$45,041
$45,041
—
—
—
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39141
acs median gross
0
$696
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39141
fmr
0
$785
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39141
acs median gross
1
$676
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39141
fmr
1
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39141
acs median gross
2
$915
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39141
fmr
2
$1,057
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39141
acs median gross
3
$1,086
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39141
fmr
3
$1,335
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39141
acs median gross
4
$1,149
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39141
fmr
4
$1,399
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39141
acs median gross
5
$1,333
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39141
acs median gross
$906
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39141
acs recent mover gross
$1,046
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45628
acs median gross
1
$346
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45628
acs median gross
2
$830
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45628
acs median gross
3
$1,111
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45628
acs median gross
$1,032
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45628
acs recent mover gross
$1,125
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 45628
payment standard 110
0
$968
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
payment standard 90
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
safmr
0
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
payment standard 110
1
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
payment standard 90
1
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
safmr
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
payment standard 110
2
$1,309
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
payment standard 90
2
$1,071
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
safmr
2
$1,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
payment standard 110
3
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
payment standard 90
3
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
safmr
3
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
payment standard 110
4
$1,738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
payment standard 90
4
$1,422
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45628
safmr
4
$1,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.