Composite
4.6 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 46.1 | 35.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 10.64 | in index |
| chow risk | 78.7 | 51.7 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 9.08 | in index |
| staffing risk | 16.0 | 16.1 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 3.08 | in index |
| financial risk | 0.8 | 5.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.18 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 31.2 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 72.3 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 5.3 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 35.0 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 16.1 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 22.1 | A | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 7.3 | A | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 34.9 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 34.9 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 16.1 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 16.1 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.92 | -0.64 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.14 | +0.26 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.05 | -0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Occupancy | 0.92 | -0.71 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.14 | -0.62 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.05 | -0.35 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.05 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.08 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.88 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.12 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 42.2 | 4.05 | 0.08 | 1.29 | 2.68 | 3.88 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 41.3 | 4.24 | 0.24 | 1.21 | 2.80 | 3.98 | 0.1% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 43.8 | 4.22 | 0.14 | 1.18 | 2.90 | 4.02 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 43.8 | 4.01 | 0.11 | 1.19 | 2.72 | 3.75 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 43.2 | 4.04 | 0.21 | 1.19 | 2.65 | 3.72 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 46.4 | 3.77 | 0.10 | 1.14 | 2.53 | 3.48 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 42.3 | 3.90 | 0.09 | 1.24 | 2.57 | 3.60 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 43.0 | 3.60 | 0.10 | 1.17 | 2.32 | 3.30 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 43.0 | 3.45 | 0.04 | 0.89 | 2.52 | 3.31 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 41.7 | 3.94 | 0.11 | 0.96 | 2.88 | 3.67 | 0.1% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 43.4 | 3.47 | 0.21 | 0.84 | 2.43 | 3.22 | 0.6% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 41.9 | 3.25 | 0.10 | 0.81 | 2.34 | 2.66 | 0.7% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 39.7 | 3.36 | 0.11 | 0.42 | 2.83 | 3.14 | 4.2% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 36.9 | 4.20 | 0.07 | 0.96 | 3.17 | 3.53 | 11.7% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 40.7 | 3.27 | 0.03 | 0.81 | 2.44 | 2.77 | 13.8% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 38.1 | 2.44 | 0.01 | 0.53 | 1.90 | 1.93 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2026-04-20 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-03-17 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | E | 2025-03-17 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2025-03-17 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2025-03-17 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2025-03-17 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2025-03-17 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2025-03-17 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0810 | Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance. | D | 2025-03-17 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-03-17 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-03-17 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2025-03-17 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | F | 2025-03-17 |
| 2024-11-13 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-12-03 |
| 2024-09-26 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-10-14 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-08-06 |
| 2024-06-07 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-06-27 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | E | 2024-04-15 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-04-15 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-04-15 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-04-15 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | E | 2024-04-15 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | D | 2024-04-15 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | — |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | F | 2024-04-15 |
| 2024-01-23 | Health · complaint | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2024-03-06 |
| 2024-01-23 | Health · complaint | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | E | 2024-03-06 |
| 2023-05-08 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-08 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-08 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-08 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-08 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-08 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-08 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-08 | Health | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | F | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-08 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-08 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-08 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-08 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | E | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-08 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | F | 2023-06-01 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHESLEY, AARON | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2021-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FOWLER CARE CENTER HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2019-05-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GAMETT, JAMES | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2021-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SMITH, PHYLICIA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SWC CA OPCO, LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2021-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| 8448 E ADAMS AVE | Other (financial or non-financial) | 100% | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| AARON CHESLEY | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2021-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AJC HEALTHCARE LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2021-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES GAMETT | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2021-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JBG PARTNERS LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2021-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| 8448 E ADAMS AVE | Other (financial or non-financial) | — | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| PHYLICIA SMITH | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06019 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,132 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06019 | fmr | 0 | $1,347 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06019 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,094 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06019 | fmr | 1 | $1,355 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06019 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,337 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06019 | fmr | 2 | $1,664 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06019 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,705 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06019 | fmr | 3 | $2,314 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06019 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,934 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06019 | fmr | 4 | $2,660 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06019 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,247 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06019 | acs median gross | $1,392 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06019 | acs recent mover gross | $1,698 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 93625 | acs median gross | 1 | $941 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 93625 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,120 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 93625 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,682 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 93625 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,183 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 93625 | acs median gross | $1,321 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 93625 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,375 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,125 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | safmr | 0 | $1,250 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,386 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,134 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | safmr | 1 | $1,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,705 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,395 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | safmr | 2 | $1,550 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,376 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,944 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | safmr | 3 | $2,160 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,728 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,232 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 93625 | safmr | 4 | $2,480 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |