Composite
11.6 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 52.5 | 40.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.12 | in index |
| staffing risk | 33.9 | 34.0 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 6.52 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 25.2 | 16.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 5.82 | in index |
| financial risk | 15.7 | 24.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 3.62 | in index |
| chow risk | 23.7 | 31.0 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 2.73 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 40.4 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 19.1 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 42.8 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 24.0 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 16.8 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 34.0 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 61.5 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 41.5 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 30.6 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 30.0 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 16.7 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 16.7 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 34.0 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 34.0 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.68 | -1.29 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.89 | -0.54 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.23 | +0.50 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.06 | -0.11 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 4.23 | -1.26 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | +0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.89 | -0.58 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.68 | -0.21 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | VA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.57 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.35 | 2.96 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.66 | 3.20 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 139.0 | 3.57 | 0.30 | 1.07 | 2.20 | 3.35 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 132.5 | 3.63 | 0.23 | 1.12 | 2.28 | 3.47 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 131.4 | 3.56 | 0.08 | 1.07 | 2.42 | 3.52 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 136.2 | 3.38 | 0.14 | 1.06 | 2.18 | 3.34 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 122.9 | 3.72 | 0.19 | 1.05 | 2.48 | 3.55 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 118.7 | 3.56 | 0.32 | 0.90 | 2.33 | 3.39 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 117.1 | 3.69 | 0.47 | 0.93 | 2.29 | 3.50 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 117.4 | 3.51 | 0.45 | 0.92 | 2.14 | 3.25 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 108.4 | 3.77 | 0.35 | 1.13 | 2.29 | 3.62 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 106.0 | 3.90 | 0.26 | 1.27 | 2.37 | 3.73 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 100.0 | 3.77 | 0.30 | 1.24 | 2.23 | 3.53 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 104.7 | 3.73 | 0.33 | 1.11 | 2.29 | 3.58 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 112.3 | 3.18 | 0.26 | 1.00 | 1.92 | 3.09 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 107.7 | 3.29 | 0.09 | 1.13 | 2.08 | 2.95 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 103.8 | 3.32 | 0.13 | 1.18 | 2.02 | 2.92 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 109.6 | 3.19 | 0.12 | 1.14 | 1.93 | 2.99 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | J | — |
| 2026-04-30 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | — |
| 2026-04-30 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | — |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0622 | Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged. | E | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | E | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | E | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | E | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | F | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | E | 2022-04-20 |
| 2022-03-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2022-04-20 |
| 2018-11-08 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2018-11-30 |
| 2018-11-08 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2018-11-30 |
| 2018-11-08 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2018-11-12 |
| 2018-11-08 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2018-11-08 |
| 2018-11-08 | Health | F0744 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia. | E | 2018-11-12 |
| 2018-11-08 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2018-11-08 |
| 2018-11-08 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2018-11-21 |
| 2018-11-08 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2018-11-08 |
| 2018-11-08 | Health | F0808 | Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law. | D | 2018-11-08 |
| 2017-08-30 | Health | F0240 | Provide care for each resident in a way that maintains or improves their quality of life. | D | 2017-10-06 |
| 2017-08-30 | Health | F0279 | Develop a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2017-10-06 |
| 2017-08-30 | Health | F0309 | Provide necessary care and services to maintain or improve the highest well being of each resident . | D | 2017-10-06 |
| 2017-08-30 | Health | F0328 | Properly care for residents needing special services, including: injections, colostomy, ureostomy, ileostomy, tracheostomy care, tracheal suctioning, respiratory care, foot care, and prostheses. | D | 2017-10-06 |
| 2017-08-30 | Health | F0518 | Train all employees on what to do in an emergency, and carry out unannounced staff drills. | D | 2017-10-06 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HC FAMILY TRUST | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BATYA GORELICK | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2021-05-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| INA BELVIY | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2022-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-24 | — | ANNANDALE VA OPCO LLC | LEEWOOD INVESTMENTS & ASSOCIATES, LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | Woodstock Valley Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 88 | 803 SOUTH MAIN STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Jamestown Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 1811 JAMESTOWN ROAD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Windsor Grove Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 114 | 23352 COURTHOUSE HIGHWAY OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Grayson Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 120 | 400 SOUTH INDEPENDENCE AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | SKYLINE NURSING & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 90 | 237 FRANKLIN PIKE ROAD SE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | KINGS DAUGHTERS COMMUNITY HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 117 | 1410 NORTH AUGUSTA STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Ghent Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 222 | 3900 LLEWELLYN AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | ASHLAND NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 190 | 906 THOMPSON STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-19 | The Boulevard Post Acute | — | — | — | 81 | BOULEVARD OPERATOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | FRANCIS MARION MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 109 | FRANCIS MARION OPERATING GROUP LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | POPLAR HILL HEALTH AND REHAB | — | — | — | 113 | FAUQUIER OPCO LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | NORTHERN CARDINAL REHABILITATION AND NURSING | — | — | — | 120 | NORTHERN CARDINAL REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 51059 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,968 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51059 | fmr | 0 | $1,953 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51059 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,954 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51059 | fmr | 1 | $2,015 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51059 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,273 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51059 | fmr | 2 | $2,246 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51059 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,735 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51059 | fmr | 3 | $2,835 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51059 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,260 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51059 | fmr | 4 | $3,332 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51059 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51059 | acs median gross | $2,276 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 51059 | acs recent mover gross | $2,341 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 22003 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,700 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 22003 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,671 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 22003 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,923 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 22003 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,502 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 22003 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,720 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 22003 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,482 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 22003 | acs median gross | $2,008 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 22003 | acs recent mover gross | $2,178 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 22003 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,156 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,764 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | safmr | 0 | $1,960 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,222 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,818 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | safmr | 1 | $2,020 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,475 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,025 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | safmr | 2 | $2,250 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,124 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,556 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | safmr | 3 | $2,840 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,674 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,006 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22003 | safmr | 4 | $3,340 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |