678 2ND STREET WEST, SONOMA, CA 95476 · CCN 055268 · chain PACS HOLDINGS LLC
Composite
34.7 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
83
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 34.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HANCOCK MARK
158 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
PROVIDENCE GROUP WINE COUNTRY LLC
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.42
3.95
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.39
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.01
3.79
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.59
4.01
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
78.5
3.42
0.39
0.92
2.11
3.01
0.3%
2025Q3
92
77.5
3.55
0.49
0.92
2.15
2.91
1.1%
2025Q2
91
78.3
3.37
0.58
0.88
1.91
2.78
2.4%
2025Q1
90
77.3
3.46
0.65
0.94
1.87
2.86
9.2%
2024Q4
92
77.2
3.31
0.40
1.07
1.84
2.82
6.9%
2024Q3
92
78.8
3.35
0.35
1.08
1.92
2.78
0.8%
2024Q2
91
78.5
3.30
0.50
0.95
1.86
2.75
1.7%
2024Q1
91
78.8
3.47
0.50
0.99
1.98
2.96
0.0%
2023Q4
92
79.4
3.31
0.30
0.99
2.02
2.89
0.0%
2023Q3
92
78.1
3.55
0.34
1.05
2.16
3.44
0.0%
2023Q2
91
75.8
3.40
0.26
1.11
2.03
2.94
0.0%
2023Q1
90
82.3
2.66
0.20
0.68
1.77
2.41
0.0%
2022Q4
92
77.0
2.42
0.24
0.70
1.48
2.14
0.0%
2022Q3
92
74.9
2.57
0.22
0.82
1.53
2.25
0.0%
2022Q2
91
69.3
3.12
0.23
0.89
2.01
2.88
0.0%
2022Q1
90
77.5
2.75
0.13
0.80
1.83
2.56
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
32
D × 12E × 15F × 3G × 1L × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-22
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2026-05-27
2025-11-14
Health · complaint
F0627
Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge.
D
2026-01-05
2025-08-01
Health · complaint
F0606
Not hire anyone with a finding of abuse, neglect, exploitation, or theft.
D
2025-08-14
2025-08-01
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-08-14
2025-07-22
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-07-31
2025-07-18
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-08-08
2025-05-16
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-06-16
2025-03-20
Health · complaint
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2025-04-07
2025-01-30
Health · complaint
F0576
Ensure residents have reasonable access to and privacy in their use of communication methods.
E
2025-02-05
2024-06-13
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-06-20
2022-03-30
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
F
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
E
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
E
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
L
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0801
Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician.
F
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0802
Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service.
F
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
E
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
E
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0810
Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance.
D
2022-04-24
2022-03-30
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2022-04-24
2019-08-16
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2019-10-15
2019-08-16
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2019-10-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP WINE COUNTRY LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2016-12-16
current
pecos_ownership
APT, FREDERICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOCK, MARK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OLSON, JON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-11-05
current
pecos_ownership
PICETTI, DOMINIC
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOMINIC PICETTI
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JON OLSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-11-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$727,425
—
$727,425
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$829,017
—
$829,017
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$867,841
—
$867,841
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$1,228,579
—
$1,234,863
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$870,781
—
$870,781
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 06097
acs median gross
0
$1,677
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
fmr
0
$1,949
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06097
acs median gross
1
$1,666
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
fmr
1
$2,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06097
acs median gross
2
$2,207
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
fmr
2
$2,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06097
acs median gross
3
$2,780
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
fmr
3
$3,887
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06097
acs median gross
4
$3,184
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
fmr
4
$4,147
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06097
acs median gross
5
$3,345
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
acs median gross
$2,158
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06097
acs recent mover gross
$2,385
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95476
acs median gross
0
$1,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95476
acs median gross
1
$1,649
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95476
acs median gross
2
$2,198
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95476
acs median gross
3
$2,671
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95476
acs median gross
4
$2,783
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95476
acs median gross
$2,105
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95476
acs recent mover gross
$2,227
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 95476
payment standard 110
0
$2,167
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
payment standard 90
0
$1,773
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
safmr
0
$1,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
payment standard 110
1
$2,398
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
payment standard 90
1
$1,962
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
safmr
1
$2,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
payment standard 110
2
$3,146
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
payment standard 90
2
$2,574
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
safmr
2
$2,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
payment standard 110
3
$4,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
payment standard 90
3
$3,537
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
safmr
3
$3,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
payment standard 110
4
$4,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
payment standard 90
4
$3,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95476
safmr
4
$4,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.