Reads as: riskier than 31.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.73
3.39
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.09
0.39
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.56
3.26
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.79
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
109.5
3.73
0.09
1.35
2.29
3.56
0.0%
2025Q3
92
113.1
3.72
0.17
1.20
2.35
3.53
2.5%
2025Q2
91
117.2
3.71
0.24
1.16
2.32
3.49
2.8%
2025Q1
90
116.4
3.80
0.30
1.13
2.38
3.62
1.6%
2024Q4
92
114.1
3.87
0.38
1.16
2.34
3.58
5.0%
2024Q3
92
115.7
3.69
0.36
1.04
2.29
3.44
11.3%
2024Q2
91
115.9
3.59
0.39
1.03
2.17
3.30
11.5%
2024Q1
91
110.9
3.52
0.27
1.11
2.13
3.33
9.1%
2023Q4
92
104.3
3.60
0.31
1.20
2.09
3.36
10.6%
2023Q3
92
107.3
3.38
0.29
1.10
2.00
3.08
4.2%
2023Q2
91
107.0
3.25
0.28
1.07
1.90
2.97
10.2%
2023Q1
90
99.5
3.29
0.38
0.99
1.92
3.00
10.3%
2022Q4
92
103.0
3.08
0.40
0.91
1.76
2.74
7.4%
2022Q3
92
106.6
3.37
0.43
0.81
2.13
3.05
4.5%
2022Q2
91
104.7
3.35
0.45
0.84
2.06
2.98
3.6%
2022Q1
90
102.9
3.45
0.48
0.89
2.08
3.20
0.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
20
D × 17E × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-29
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2026-05-26
2025-08-21
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2025-09-05
2025-08-21
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-09-05
2025-08-21
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-09-05
2025-08-21
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2025-09-05
2025-08-21
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2025-09-05
2025-08-21
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
E
2025-09-05
2024-07-01
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2024-07-31
2024-07-01
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-07-31
2024-07-01
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2024-07-31
2024-07-01
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2024-07-31
2024-07-01
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
D
2024-07-31
2023-02-02
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-02-24
2023-02-02
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-02-24
2023-02-02
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-02-24
2023-02-02
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2023-02-24
2023-02-02
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-02-24
2023-02-02
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-02-24
2023-02-02
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-02-24
2023-02-02
Health
F0886
Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff.
E
2023-02-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
49
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FAIRLAWN MED INV
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FAIRLAWN MED INV
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CROSS, CINDY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
ELKERM, ASHRAF
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELKERM, ASHRAF
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-13
current
pecos_ownership
FAIRLAWN MEDICAL INVESTORS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-10-25
current
pecos_ownership
FAIRLAWN MEDICAL INVESTORS, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2005-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
FAIRLAWN MEDICAL, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
FAIRLAWN MEDICAL, INC.
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2004-04-19
current
pecos_ownership
FLETCHER, TODD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-11-02
current
pecos_ownership
FLETCHER, TODD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
HENRY, TERRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
LAY, LISA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-04-24
current
pecos_ownership
LAY, LISA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-02-09
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2005-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-13
current
pecos_ownership
LONG, ZOFIA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2005-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
MAGUE, SAMANTHA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-08-21
current
pecos_ownership
MAGUE, SAMANTHA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-13
current
pecos_ownership
PINNOCK, TRACY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-12
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, AUBREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-06
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-10-25
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2004-04-19
current
pecos_ownership
SWANKER, RICHARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SWANKER, RICHARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
THURMOND, JOAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
ZIEGLER, JAMES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
FAIRLAWN MED INV
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FAIRLAWN MED INV
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FAIRLAWN MED INV
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FORREST PRESTON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
99%
2004-04-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ASHRAF ELKERM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ASHRAF ELKERM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AUBREY PRESTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CINDY CROSS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORREST PRESTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-10-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ZIEGLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN THURMOND
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA LAY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-02-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA LAY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-04-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD SWANKER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD SWANKER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMANTHA MAGUE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-08-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMANTHA MAGUE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERRY HENRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD FLETCHER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD FLETCHER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-11-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRACY PINNOCK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZOFIA LONG
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2005-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,783,265
$119,055
—
—
$38,515
6
propco
2023-12-31
$1,106,367
$173,285
—
—
$38,532
6
propco
2022-12-31
$1,009,367
$213,340
—
—
$38,280
6
propco
2021-12-31
$1,073,297
$224,860
—
—
$37,968
6
propco
2020-12-31
$1,168,981
—
—
—
$286,521
6
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
30
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 25027
acs median gross
0
$1,120
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs median gross
1
$1,068
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs median gross
2
$1,483
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs median gross
3
$1,745
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs median gross
4
$1,929
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs median gross
5
$1,739
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs median gross
$1,426
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 25027
acs recent mover gross
$1,868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01453
acs median gross
0
$862
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01453
acs median gross
1
$1,193
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01453
acs median gross
2
$1,422
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01453
acs median gross
3
$1,494
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01453
acs median gross
4
$1,857
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01453
acs median gross
$1,354
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 01453
acs recent mover gross
$1,803
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 01453
payment standard 110
0
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
payment standard 90
0
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
safmr
0
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
payment standard 110
1
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
payment standard 90
1
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
safmr
1
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
payment standard 110
2
$2,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
payment standard 90
2
$1,665
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
safmr
2
$1,850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
payment standard 110
3
$2,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
payment standard 90
3
$2,142
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
safmr
3
$2,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
payment standard 110
4
$3,069
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
payment standard 90
4
$2,511
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 01453
safmr
4
$2,790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.