Composite
72.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 76.1 | 76.1 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 14.63 | in index |
| financial risk | 59.9 | 52.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.82 | in index |
| billing conduct | 48.5 | 38.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.19 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 45.0 | 33.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 10.38 | in index |
| chow risk | 58.9 | 40.6 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 6.80 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 38.8 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 54.8 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 26.4 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 52.2 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 4.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 33.9 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 76.1 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 67.2 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 47.2 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 58.2 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.7 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 33.8 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 33.8 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 76.1 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 76.1 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.93 | -0.68 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.16 | +0.48 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 4.16 | -1.22 | |
| Occupancy | 0.93 | -0.77 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.88 | +0.14 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.11 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OH median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.88 | 3.24 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.83 | 3.11 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.90 | 3.29 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 69.8 | 2.88 | 0.39 | 0.62 | 1.87 | 2.83 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 69.1 | 2.81 | 0.36 | 0.61 | 1.82 | 2.76 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 69.5 | 2.71 | 0.35 | 0.65 | 1.71 | 2.69 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 67.6 | 2.72 | 0.30 | 0.66 | 1.76 | 2.68 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 64.8 | 2.72 | 0.29 | 0.70 | 1.73 | 2.71 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 60.6 | 2.84 | 0.41 | 0.64 | 1.80 | 2.82 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 67.1 | 2.58 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 1.63 | 2.53 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 65.1 | 2.61 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 1.62 | 2.58 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 62.0 | 2.55 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 1.55 | 2.57 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 61.6 | 2.44 | 0.58 | 0.40 | 1.46 | 2.31 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 62.9 | 2.28 | 0.57 | 0.40 | 1.31 | 2.21 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 62.8 | 2.63 | 0.68 | 0.43 | 1.52 | 2.64 | 0.2% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 66.3 | 2.43 | 0.72 | 0.39 | 1.32 | 2.28 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 66.4 | 2.08 | 0.64 | 0.36 | 1.08 | 2.04 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 64.4 | 2.47 | 0.57 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.32 | 1.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 59.0 | 2.60 | 0.71 | 0.39 | 1.51 | 2.29 | 1.3% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-15 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-10-09 |
| 2025-09-15 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2025-10-09 |
| 2025-09-15 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-10-09 |
| 2025-09-15 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2025-10-09 |
| 2025-09-15 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-10-09 |
| 2025-09-15 | Health | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | F | 2025-10-09 |
| 2025-09-15 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-10-09 |
| 2025-08-12 | Health · complaint | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | D | 2025-09-15 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2024-10-29 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health · complaint | F0606 | Not hire anyone with a finding of abuse, neglect, exploitation, or theft. | F | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | B | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | B | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | D | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health | F0922 | Have enough backup water supply for essential areas of the nursing home. | F | 2024-07-18 |
| 2023-09-13 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-09-28 |
| 2022-07-26 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2022-08-20 |
| 2022-07-26 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2022-08-20 |
| 2022-07-26 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | D | 2022-08-20 |
| 2022-07-26 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | D | 2022-08-20 |
| 2022-07-26 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2022-08-20 |
| 2022-07-26 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2022-08-20 |
| 2022-07-26 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | E | 2022-08-20 |
| 2022-07-26 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2022-08-20 |
| 2022-07-26 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2022-08-20 |
| 2022-07-26 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2022-08-20 |
| 2022-07-26 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | F | 2022-08-20 |
| 2022-07-26 | Health | F0772 | Have an agreement with an approved laboratory to obtain services, if on-site laboratory services aren't provided. | D | 2022-08-20 |
| 2022-07-26 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2022-08-20 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CUMBERLAND POINTE REALTY LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CUMBERLAND POINTE REALTY LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| COLLERAN, BRIAN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2019-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FOUNDATIONS HEALTH SOLUTIONS, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2019-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FOUNDATIONS HEALTH SOLUTIONS, LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JAO, MONINA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2007-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KOCHER, CATHY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2020-09-08 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KRYSTOWSKI, JOHN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2018-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| COLLERAN FAM TR DATED 01-01-2018 | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2018-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2018-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BRIAN COLLERAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2019-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CATHY KOCHER | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2020-09-08 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOHN KRYSTOWSKI | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2018-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MONINA JAO | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2007-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | SAPPHIRE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | SAPPHIRE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF POINT PLACE | — | — | — | 82 | POINT PLACE OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON | — | — | — | 82 | NEW LEXINGTON OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | ATRIUM OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Inniswood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | FHS INNISWOOD, INC. |
| 2024-12-31 | COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 110 | CS OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF PERRYSBURG | — | — | — | 75 | PERRYSBURG OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | GRAFTON OAKS NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | GO OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF KENT | — | — | — | 74 | KENT OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | Chardon Woods | — | — | — | 161 | CHARDON WOODS OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-12-16 | The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 60 | PAVILION AT CANAL FULTON LLC |
| 2024-12-02 | BENNINGTON GLEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | FHS BENNINGTON INC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 39013 | fmr | 0 | $683 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39013 | acs median gross | 1 | $470 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39013 | fmr | 1 | $816 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39013 | acs median gross | 2 | $799 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39013 | fmr | 2 | $991 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39013 | acs median gross | 3 | $995 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39013 | fmr | 3 | $1,277 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39013 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,121 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39013 | fmr | 4 | $1,413 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39013 | acs median gross | 5 | $825 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39013 | acs median gross | $793 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 39013 | acs recent mover gross | $941 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 43950 | acs median gross | 1 | $607 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43950 | acs median gross | 2 | $917 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43950 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,143 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43950 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,693 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43950 | acs median gross | $934 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 43950 | acs recent mover gross | $956 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 43950 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $825 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $675 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | safmr | 0 | $750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | safmr | 1 | $900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,199 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $981 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | safmr | 2 | $1,090 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,551 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,269 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | safmr | 3 | $1,410 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,705 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,395 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43950 | safmr | 4 | $1,550 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |