16955 VANOWEN STREET, VAN NUYS, CA 91406 · CCN 056180 · chain THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
Composite
28.4 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
50
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 28.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
286 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
BURNAM SOON
335 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
KEETCH CHAD
283 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.29
3.95
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.73
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.92
3.79
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.43
4.01
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
48.0
4.29
0.73
1.03
2.52
3.92
0.0%
2025Q3
92
47.2
4.25
0.65
1.11
2.49
3.94
0.0%
2025Q2
91
46.3
4.39
0.68
1.09
2.61
4.03
0.0%
2025Q1
90
46.9
4.58
0.86
1.03
2.69
4.21
0.0%
2024Q4
92
46.3
4.49
0.71
1.10
2.67
4.17
0.0%
2024Q3
92
47.9
4.34
0.67
1.11
2.56
4.05
0.0%
2024Q2
91
46.1
4.44
0.69
1.17
2.57
4.03
0.0%
2024Q1
91
46.7
4.48
0.69
1.17
2.62
4.04
0.0%
2023Q4
92
46.9
4.49
0.69
1.16
2.64
4.07
0.0%
2023Q3
92
43.8
4.64
0.75
1.23
2.66
4.17
0.0%
2023Q2
91
47.2
4.32
0.79
1.02
2.50
4.03
0.0%
2023Q1
90
51.8
4.23
0.88
0.82
2.53
3.91
0.0%
2022Q4
92
45.7
5.08
0.88
1.13
3.07
4.71
0.0%
2022Q3
92
43.2
5.07
0.81
1.21
3.05
4.83
0.0%
2022Q2
91
39.3
5.64
0.76
1.52
3.36
5.25
0.0%
2022Q1
90
39.6
5.58
0.98
1.35
3.25
4.95
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
28
B × 3D × 17E × 8
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-12
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2026-05-04
2026-04-12
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2026-05-04
2026-04-12
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2026-05-04
2026-04-12
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
D
2026-05-04
2026-04-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2026-05-04
2026-04-12
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
D
2026-05-04
2026-04-12
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-05-04
2026-04-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-05-04
2026-04-12
Health
F0912
Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms.
B
2026-05-04
2026-03-12
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2026-04-03
2026-03-12
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
E
2026-04-03
2026-03-12
Health · complaint
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2026-04-03
2026-03-12
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2026-04-03
2026-01-26
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2026-02-11
2025-12-05
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-12-18
2025-03-30
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-04-08
2025-03-30
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2025-04-08
2025-03-30
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-04-08
2025-03-30
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-04-08
2025-03-30
Health
F0912
Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms.
B
2025-04-08
2024-12-18
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-01-10
2024-12-13
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-01-21
2024-03-21
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-04-10
2024-03-21
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-04-10
2024-03-21
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-04-10
2024-03-21
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-04-10
2024-03-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-04-10
2024-03-21
Health
F0912
Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms.
B
2024-04-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BARRON, CRAIG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BURNAM, SOON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
GAMERO, ALICIA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEETCH, CHAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PORT, BARRY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-29
current
pecos_ownership
SATO, AMI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
SHIRAZI, KEYVAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLITS, ADAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
FLAGSTONE HEALTHCARE SOUTH LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-11-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-11-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CRAIG BARRON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADAM WILLITS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-11-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALICIA GAMERO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMI SATO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD KEETCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEYVAN SHIRAZI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-11-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,329,653
—
$922,425
—
—
3
—
2023-12-31
$1,038,652
—
$719,539
—
$4,012
3
—
2023-01-31
$62,038
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$673,675
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$460,954
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 06037
acs median gross
0
$1,523
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06037
fmr
0
$1,863
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06037
acs median gross
1
$1,724
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06037
fmr
1
$2,085
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06037
acs median gross
2
$2,127
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06037
fmr
2
$2,601
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06037
acs median gross
3
$2,484
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06037
fmr
3
$3,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06037
acs median gross
4
$2,866
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06037
fmr
4
$3,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06037
acs median gross
5
$2,767
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06037
acs median gross
$1,954
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06037
acs recent mover gross
$2,358
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 91406
acs median gross
0
$1,715
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 91406
acs median gross
1
$1,683
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 91406
acs median gross
2
$2,140
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 91406
acs median gross
3
$2,767
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 91406
acs median gross
4
$3,330
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 91406
acs median gross
5
$1,829
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 91406
acs median gross
$1,906
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 91406
acs recent mover gross
$1,919
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 91406
payment standard 110
0
$2,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
payment standard 90
0
$1,917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
safmr
0
$2,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
payment standard 110
1
$2,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
payment standard 90
1
$2,142
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
safmr
1
$2,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
payment standard 110
2
$3,267
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
payment standard 90
2
$2,673
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
safmr
2
$2,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
payment standard 110
3
$4,147
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
payment standard 90
3
$3,393
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
safmr
3
$3,770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
payment standard 110
4
$4,609
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
payment standard 90
4
$3,771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 91406
safmr
4
$4,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.