1935 WHARF ROAD, CAPITOLA, CA 95010 · CCN 056048 · chain COVENANT CARE LLC
Composite
2.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
99
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 2.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MIDCAP FUNDING IV TRUST
36 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
MIDCAP FUNDING IV TRUST
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
CARNEY KEVIN
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
LEVIN ROBERT
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
TOROK ANDREW
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
EVANS MARY
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
ASHLEY DAVA
15 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.06
3.95
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.01
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.77
3.79
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.17
4.01
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
97.8
4.06
1.01
0.60
2.45
3.77
0.0%
2025Q3
92
96.1
4.05
0.96
0.61
2.48
3.82
0.0%
2025Q2
91
97.2
3.78
0.88
0.50
2.40
3.71
0.0%
2025Q1
90
97.4
3.75
0.50
0.82
2.42
3.74
0.0%
2024Q4
92
97.4
3.70
0.46
0.87
2.37
3.65
0.0%
2024Q3
92
97.0
3.77
0.49
0.84
2.43
3.71
0.0%
2024Q2
91
97.4
3.81
0.67
0.86
2.28
3.69
0.0%
2024Q1
91
96.1
3.72
0.65
0.85
2.22
3.43
0.0%
2023Q4
92
92.0
3.41
0.62
0.86
1.93
3.03
0.0%
2023Q3
92
89.3
3.60
0.47
0.93
2.20
3.29
0.0%
2023Q2
91
92.3
3.27
0.41
0.81
2.04
2.90
2.0%
2023Q1
90
96.9
2.92
0.50
0.65
1.78
2.60
5.2%
2022Q4
92
96.9
3.46
0.52
0.73
2.21
3.10
0.0%
2022Q3
92
89.5
3.38
0.42
0.76
2.20
3.13
0.0%
2022Q2
91
89.3
3.46
0.49
0.72
2.25
3.28
1.8%
2022Q1
90
87.7
3.51
0.54
0.58
2.39
3.38
1.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
27
D × 25E × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-04-02
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-04-11
2025-02-20
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2025-03-12
2025-02-20
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-03-12
2024-08-02
Health · complaint
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-08-02
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2024-08-02
2024-05-09
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-05-31
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-01-08
2023-09-11
Health · complaint
F0745
Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life.
D
2023-09-26
2023-06-16
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2023-07-05
2023-06-16
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2023-06-29
2023-06-16
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-07-03
2023-06-16
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-06-29
2023-06-16
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-06-30
2023-06-16
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2023-06-30
2023-06-16
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2023-07-03
2023-06-16
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-07-14
2023-06-16
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-07-06
2023-06-16
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-07-14
2023-06-16
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
D
2023-06-29
2023-06-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-07-13
2023-06-16
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
D
2023-06-30
2019-12-05
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2019-12-31
2019-12-05
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2019-12-31
2019-12-05
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2019-12-31
2019-12-05
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2019-12-31
2019-12-05
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2019-12-31
2019-12-05
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2019-12-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
42
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
COVENANT CARE CALIFORNIA, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2004-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ASHLEY, DAVA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-03-26
current
pecos_ownership
ASHLEY, DAVA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-05-07
current
pecos_ownership
CARNEY, KEVIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRE CAPITAL INVESTORS V, LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRE COVENANT PURCHASER (B), LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRE COVENANT PURCHASER (Q), LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRE COVENANT PURCHASER (S), LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-12-19
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRE V SECONDARY FUND, L.P.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
COVENANT CARE, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
COVENANT HOLDCO, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
COVENANT SUBCO, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
EVANS, MARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2006-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
EVANS, MARY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
EVANS, MARY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
LEVIN, ROBERT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
LEVIN, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2006-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
LEVIN, ROBERT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MIDCAP FUNDING IV TRUST
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2014-02-20
current
pecos_ownership
SIMS, CHRISTINE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
SIMS, CHRISTINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2005-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
SIMS, CHRISTINE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPARKS, CAROL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2004-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
STATE TREASURER OF MICH CUSTODIAN OF PUBLIC SCHOOL EMPL RTMNT SYSTEMS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-12-19
current
pecos_ownership
STOCKWELL FUND II LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-12-19
current
pecos_ownership
TOROK, ANDREW
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
TOROK, ANDREW
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROBERT LEVIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2008-07-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW TOROK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2008-07-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINE SIMS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2008-07-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY EVANS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2008-07-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW TOROK
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINE SIMS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVA ASHLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2018-05-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY EVANS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT LEVIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CAROL SPARKS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2004-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINE SIMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2005-12-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVA ASHLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-03-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN CARNEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY EVANS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2006-04-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT LEVIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2006-04-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,699,475
—
—
—
$88,398
2
—
2023-12-31
$2,699,581
—
—
$1,343,965
$92,083
3
—
2022-12-31
$2,464,199
—
—
$1,511,564
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$2,200,347
—
—
$1,150,313
$62,166
3
—
2020-12-31
$2,228,109
—
—
$1,046,970
$93,923
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 06087
acs median gross
0
$1,710
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06087
fmr
0
$3,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06087
acs median gross
1
$1,859
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06087
fmr
1
$3,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06087
acs median gross
2
$2,376
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06087
fmr
2
$4,214
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06087
acs median gross
3
$2,925
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06087
fmr
3
$5,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06087
acs median gross
4
$3,130
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06087
fmr
4
$5,659
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06087
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06087
acs median gross
$2,264
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06087
acs recent mover gross
$2,881
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95010
acs median gross
0
$1,734
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95010
acs median gross
1
$2,203
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95010
acs median gross
2
$2,589
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95010
acs median gross
3
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95010
acs median gross
$2,503
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 95010
acs recent mover gross
$3,133
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 95010
payment standard 110
0
$3,619
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
payment standard 90
0
$2,961
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
safmr
0
$3,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
payment standard 110
1
$3,751
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
payment standard 90
1
$3,069
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
safmr
1
$3,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
payment standard 110
2
$4,796
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
payment standard 90
2
$3,924
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
safmr
2
$4,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
payment standard 110
3
$6,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
payment standard 90
3
$5,004
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
safmr
3
$5,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
payment standard 110
4
$6,435
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
payment standard 90
4
$5,265
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 95010
safmr
4
$5,850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.