Reads as: riskier than 55.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+30.1 vs natl
DOROS GENERATION TRUST U A D 1 3 12
72 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.2 vs natl
LEGACY HEALTHCARE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
79 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.1 vs natl
OAKWAY OPERATIONS LLC
44 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.2 vs natl
SHABAT MENACHEM
85 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
RAJCHENBACH CHAIM
49 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.85
3.15
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.40
0.46
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.79
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.87
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
35.9
2.85
0.40
0.56
1.89
2.79
8.4%
2025Q3
92
34.3
2.93
0.29
0.66
1.99
2.90
5.9%
2025Q2
91
31.1
3.15
0.29
0.79
2.06
3.03
10.6%
2025Q1
90
32.2
3.13
0.37
0.70
2.06
3.20
11.8%
2024Q4
92
30.4
3.20
0.46
0.74
2.01
2.81
8.0%
2024Q3
92
31.3
2.78
0.34
0.65
1.78
2.59
9.1%
2024Q2
91
29.8
3.26
0.38
0.66
2.23
3.04
3.0%
2024Q1
91
32.5
3.34
0.43
0.56
2.34
3.14
0.0%
2023Q4
92
33.8
2.96
0.39
0.56
2.01
2.78
0.0%
2023Q3
92
32.9
2.89
0.50
0.42
1.97
2.75
0.0%
2023Q2
91
31.3
3.16
0.56
0.43
2.17
3.00
0.0%
2023Q1
90
34.3
2.87
0.66
0.27
1.94
2.69
2.0%
2022Q4
92
35.1
2.80
0.60
0.26
1.94
2.64
2.0%
2022Q3
92
30.1
3.13
0.56
0.43
2.13
3.04
6.1%
2022Q2
91
32.5
3.22
0.39
0.66
2.17
3.15
12.0%
2022Q1
90
35.6
3.36
0.49
0.52
2.34
3.30
9.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
11
D × 9E × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-04-17
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-05-17
2025-04-17
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2025-05-17
2025-04-17
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-05-17
2025-04-17
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2025-05-17
2025-04-17
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-01-16
2024-04-25
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-05-25
2024-04-25
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-05-25
2024-04-25
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
D
2024-05-25
2024-04-25
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-05-25
2023-02-09
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-03-11
2023-02-09
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-03-11
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
72
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BAKER, JOSHUA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BEASLEY, KARLA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BEHOUNEK, LINSEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BELMOND IA PROPERTY HOLDINGS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BOELMAN, SHERI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BORCHERDING, JENNY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BURKEN, SHERI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADE CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADE CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
CCG GORGONA LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
DOROS GENERATION TRUST U/A/D 1/3/12
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
FREERKS, MONICA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
FRIEDENBERG, LAURA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
FRIEDMAN, BRIAN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
GORGONA HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
GORGONA PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
GORGONA SUB HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
HEDBERG, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
HENNAGER, CHRISTINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
HEYING, LARINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
HOUSTON, MINDY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
JAEGER, KRYSTLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
KNUTSON, MICHELE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
LARSON, MELISSA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
LEGACY HEALTHCARE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
MCCLURE, DOROTHY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
MN8 RH HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
OAKWAY OPERATIONS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
OTTERBECK, PATRICIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
RAJCHENBACH, AVRUM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-11
current
pecos_ownership
RAJCHENBACH, CHAIM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
RAJCHENBACH, RIVKA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
SCOTT, KATHLEEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
SEU, JOSHUA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
SHABAT, AHUVA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
SHABAT, MENACHEM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
SHEAR, KILEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
STAUDT, SANDRA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
VAN VEGHEL, ELIZABETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
WIERSCHEM, BOBBIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
WOOD, ROSEMARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
WRIGHT, AMY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
IOWA PORTFOLIO OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
46%
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GPN FAM TR UA 04282008
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
46%
2024-08-15
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
AMY WRIGHT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BOBBIE WIERSCHEM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAIM RAJCHENBACH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA HENNAGER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOROTHY MCCLURE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH VAN VEGHEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER HEDBERG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNY BORCHERDING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA BAKER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA SEU
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARLA BEASLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHLEEN SCOTT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KILEY SHEAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRYSTLE JAEGER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARINA HEYING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA FRIEDENBERG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINSEY BEHOUNEK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA LARSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MENACHEM SHABAT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELE KNUTSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MINDY HOUSTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MONICA FREERKS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA OTTERBECK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROSEMARY WOOD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SANDRA STAUDT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERI BOELMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERI BURKEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$62,605
—
—
—
—
1
—
2024-08-14
$238,731
—
$162,922
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$452,026
—
$348,943
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$465,905
—
$370,415
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$522,842
—
$407,173
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$499,796
—
$374,879
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 19197
fmr
0
$682
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19197
acs median gross
1
$506
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19197
fmr
1
$700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19197
acs median gross
2
$920
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19197
fmr
2
$919
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19197
acs median gross
3
$796
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19197
fmr
3
$1,102
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19197
acs median gross
4
$858
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19197
fmr
4
$1,217
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19197
acs median gross
5
$868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19197
acs median gross
$790
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19197
acs recent mover gross
$1,031
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50421
acs median gross
1
$600
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50421
acs median gross
2
$950
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50421
acs median gross
3
$756
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50421
acs median gross
$818
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 50421
payment standard 110
0
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
payment standard 90
0
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
safmr
0
$700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
payment standard 110
1
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
payment standard 90
1
$648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
safmr
1
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
payment standard 110
2
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
payment standard 90
2
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
safmr
2
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
payment standard 110
3
$1,243
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
payment standard 90
3
$1,017
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
safmr
3
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
payment standard 110
4
$1,463
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
payment standard 90
4
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50421
safmr
4
$1,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.