Reads as: riskier than 23.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.4 vs natl
GPN FAMILY TRUST U A D 4 28 08
74 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.2 vs natl
LEGACY HEALTHCARE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
79 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.2 vs natl
SHABAT MENACHEM
85 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
RAJCHENBACH CHAIM
49 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.25
3.15
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.22
0.46
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.17
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.29
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
30.1
3.25
0.22
0.71
2.32
3.17
3.1%
2025Q3
92
30.0
3.46
0.23
0.68
2.55
3.52
11.3%
2025Q2
91
27.6
3.79
0.30
0.84
2.65
3.79
1.0%
2025Q1
90
27.2
4.08
0.17
1.12
2.79
4.13
2.6%
2024Q4
92
27.4
4.04
0.12
1.13
2.79
4.15
0.0%
2024Q3
92
27.7
4.04
0.29
1.04
2.71
4.05
0.0%
2024Q2
91
31.1
3.83
0.34
1.01
2.48
3.70
0.0%
2024Q1
91
29.4
4.05
0.43
1.01
2.61
3.83
0.0%
2023Q4
92
29.7
4.02
0.38
1.01
2.63
3.89
0.0%
2023Q3
92
29.0
4.20
0.42
1.02
2.76
4.03
3.5%
2023Q2
91
31.2
3.74
0.34
0.91
2.50
3.62
1.3%
2023Q1
90
31.6
3.95
0.33
0.97
2.65
3.66
0.0%
2022Q4
92
34.4
3.42
0.34
0.78
2.31
3.27
1.1%
2022Q3
92
35.1
3.54
0.33
0.89
2.33
3.38
3.9%
2022Q2
91
33.9
3.44
0.28
1.01
2.14
3.23
13.6%
2022Q1
90
33.9
3.25
0.15
1.05
2.05
3.10
10.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
4
D × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-12-11
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2026-01-09
2025-12-11
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2026-01-09
2024-11-14
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-12-14
2023-08-24
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-09-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
76
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
SHABAT, MENACHEM
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2012-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
BATTLE CREEK IA PROPERTY HOLDINGS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BEASLEY, KARLA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BEHOUNEK, LINSEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BORCHERDING, JENNY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BURKEN, SHERI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADE CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
CCG GORGONA LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
FRIEDENBERG, LAURA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
FRIEDMAN, BRIAN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-28
current
pecos_ownership
GORGONA HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
GORGONA PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
GORGONA SUB HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
GPN FAMILY TRUST U/A/D 4/28/08
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
HEDBERG, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
HENNAGER, CHRISTINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
HEYING, LARINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
HOUSTON, MINDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
JAEGER, KRYSTLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
KINNAMAN, HOLLY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
KNUTSON, MICHELE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
LARSON, MELISSA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
LEGACY HEALTHCARE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
MCCLURE, DOROTHY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
MN8 RH HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
OTTERBECK, PATRICIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
RAJCHENBACH, AVRUM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-28
current
pecos_ownership
RAJCHENBACH, CHAIM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
RAJCHENBACH, RIVKA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-27
current
pecos_ownership
RIESSEN, TODD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
SCHIERNBECK, JULIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
SCOTT, KATHLEEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
SEU, JOSHUA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
SHABAT, AHUVA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-28
current
pecos_ownership
SHABAT, MENACHEM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
SHEAR, KILEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
STAUDT, SANDRA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
VAN VEGHEL, ELIZABETH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
VELTRI, ALBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
WIERSCHEM, BOBBIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
WOOD, ROSEMARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
WRIGHT, AMY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
IOWA PORTFOLIO OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MENACHEM SHABAT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2012-08-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
46%
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GPN FAM TR UA 04282008
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
46%
2024-08-15
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
OAKWAY OPERATIONS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOROS GENERATION TRUST U/A/D 1/3/12
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALBERT VELTRI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMY WRIGHT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BOBBIE WIERSCHEM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAIM RAJCHENBACH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA HENNAGER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOROTHY MCCLURE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH VAN VEGHEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HOLLY KINNAMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER HEDBERG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNY BORCHERDING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA SEU
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JULIE SCHIERNBECK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARLA BEASLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHLEEN SCOTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KILEY SHEAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRYSTLE JAEGER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARINA HEYING
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA FRIEDENBERG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINSEY BEHOUNEK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA LARSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MENACHEM SHABAT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELE KNUTSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MINDY HOUSTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA OTTERBECK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROSEMARY WOOD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SANDRA STAUDT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERI BURKEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD RIESSEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$57,797
—
—
—
—
1
—
2024-08-14
$237,851
—
$179,425
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$354,823
—
$268,704
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$304,727
—
$227,990
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$308,556
—
$226,071
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$287,194
—
$222,574
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 19093
acs median gross
0
$671
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19093
fmr
0
$682
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19093
acs median gross
1
$480
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19093
fmr
1
$764
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19093
acs median gross
2
$767
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19093
fmr
2
$919
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19093
acs median gross
3
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19093
fmr
3
$1,102
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19093
acs median gross
4
$725
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19093
fmr
4
$1,217
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19093
acs median gross
5
$486
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19093
acs median gross
$696
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19093
acs recent mover gross
$775
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 51006
acs median gross
0
$756
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 51006
acs median gross
1
$443
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 51006
acs median gross
2
$575
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 51006
acs median gross
3
$767
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 51006
acs median gross
$593
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 51006
payment standard 110
0
$781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
payment standard 90
0
$639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
safmr
0
$710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
payment standard 110
1
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
payment standard 90
1
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
safmr
1
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
payment standard 110
2
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
payment standard 90
2
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
safmr
2
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
payment standard 110
3
$1,265
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
payment standard 90
3
$1,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
safmr
3
$1,150
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
payment standard 110
4
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
payment standard 90
4
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 51006
safmr
4
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.