1040 LINCOLN AVENUE, DETROIT LAKES, MN 56501 · CCN 245212 · chain ESSENTIA HEALTH
Composite
58.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
94
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 58.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.55
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.83
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.45
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.59
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
70.8
4.55
0.83
0.36
3.36
4.45
2.1%
2025Q3
92
69.7
4.82
0.92
0.31
3.58
4.51
2.2%
2025Q2
91
70.4
4.67
0.91
0.33
3.43
4.47
2.9%
2025Q1
90
70.3
4.47
0.88
0.34
3.25
4.37
3.4%
2024Q4
92
70.2
4.50
0.87
0.35
3.28
4.34
2.3%
2024Q3
92
71.5
4.39
0.83
0.33
3.23
4.17
0.5%
2024Q2
91
70.1
4.34
0.69
0.46
3.18
4.22
2.8%
2024Q1
91
69.4
4.17
0.62
0.51
3.04
4.16
0.0%
2023Q4
92
70.2
3.98
0.65
0.50
2.82
3.96
0.0%
2023Q3
92
71.1
4.51
0.67
0.57
3.26
4.35
0.0%
2023Q2
91
71.3
4.52
0.49
0.71
3.31
4.56
0.0%
2023Q1
90
71.0
4.53
0.52
0.73
3.27
4.55
0.2%
2022Q3
92
71.1
4.58
0.58
0.67
3.33
4.36
1.4%
2022Q2
91
69.2
4.43
0.58
0.66
3.20
4.32
1.7%
2022Q1
90
63.3
4.83
0.98
0.72
3.13
4.46
1.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-01-05
2025-07-11
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-08-25
2024-10-23
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-11-26
2024-10-23
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-11-26
2024-10-23
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-11-26
2024-10-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-11-26
2023-12-13
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2024-01-19
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-01-20
2023-12-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-01-19
2023-12-13
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2024-01-19
2023-11-22
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2023-11-11
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
37
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ESSENTIA HEALTH
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS, MARC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARVIN, DOUGLAS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-18
current
pecos_ownership
BOREN, KEVIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-09-29
current
pecos_ownership
BRINKMAN, CHRISTY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-20
current
pecos_ownership
BRINKMAN, CHRISTY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-04-19
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTENSEN, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ESSENTIA HEALTH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
GEFROH ELLISON, STEFANIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-08-12
current
pecos_ownership
GUPTA, PARUL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEILMAN, TIM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HURLEY, ALAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-18
current
pecos_ownership
INNOVIS HEALTH LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
INNOVIS HEALTH LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KREJCI, MARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEWANDOWSKI, LAURIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MERTZ, TAYLOR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-05-17
current
pecos_ownership
PLADSON, KIMBERLY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAINT GEORGES, ANDERSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, BENJAMIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-05-17
current
pecos_ownership
WATTERS, MICHAEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES CHRISTENSEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIM HEILMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALAN HURLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-05-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDERSON SAINT GEORGES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN SMITH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-05-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTY BRINKMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-04-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTY BRINKMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS ARVIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIMBERLY PLADSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURIE LEWANDOWSKI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARC ADAMS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2026-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK KREJCI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2026-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL WATTERS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PARUL GUPTA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEFANIE GEFROH ELLISON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-08-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TAYLOR MERTZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-05-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27005
acs median gross
0
$568
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27005
fmr
0
$708
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27005
acs median gross
1
$616
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27005
fmr
1
$783
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27005
acs median gross
2
$962
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27005
fmr
2
$1,027
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27005
acs median gross
3
$1,095
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27005
fmr
3
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27005
acs median gross
4
$1,280
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27005
fmr
4
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27005
acs median gross
5
$945
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27005
acs median gross
$920
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27005
acs recent mover gross
$993
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56501
acs median gross
0
$372
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56501
acs median gross
1
$619
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56501
acs median gross
2
$986
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56501
acs median gross
3
$1,221
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56501
acs median gross
4
$1,381
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56501
acs median gross
5
$950
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56501
acs median gross
$963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56501
acs recent mover gross
$1,000
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 56501
payment standard 110
0
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
payment standard 90
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
safmr
0
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
payment standard 110
1
$902
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
payment standard 90
1
$738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
safmr
1
$820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
payment standard 110
2
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
payment standard 90
2
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
safmr
2
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
payment standard 110
3
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
payment standard 90
3
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
safmr
3
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
payment standard 110
4
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
payment standard 90
4
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56501
safmr
4
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.