Composite
71.6 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 88.8 | 86.2 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 38.06 | in index |
| chow risk | 83.6 | 39.7 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 17.91 | in index |
| staffing risk | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 0.64 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 39.7 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 86.2 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 1.9 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 86.1 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 86.1 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 1.9 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 1.9 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.68 | -0.52 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 6.65 | -0.35 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.10 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -2.84 | -1.35 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | +1.06 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.68 | -1.04 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.10 | +0.56 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 9.76 | -0.54 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 6.65 | -0.48 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 5.68 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 1.55 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 5.01 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 5.95 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 552.4 | 5.68 | 1.55 | 0.78 | 3.35 | 5.01 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 540.7 | 6.01 | 1.55 | 0.82 | 3.65 | 5.26 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 509.8 | 6.14 | 1.58 | 0.81 | 3.75 | 5.44 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 440.0 | 6.95 | 1.97 | 0.76 | 4.22 | 6.17 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 366.3 | 8.52 | 2.39 | 1.00 | 5.14 | 7.66 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Fine | $17,323 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-02-20 | Fine | $4,938 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-02-12 | Fine | $4,938 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-01-22 | Fine | $12,534 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-01-08 | Fine | $3,418 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-01-02 | Fine | $2,823 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-12-11 | Fine | $6,351 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-11-06 | Fine | $3,174 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | — |
| 2025-08-01 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2025-08-27 |
| 2025-06-04 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-07-04 |
| 2025-05-02 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2025-06-01 |
| 2025-05-02 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2025-06-01 |
| 2025-05-02 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2025-06-01 |
| 2025-05-02 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-06-01 |
| 2025-05-02 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2025-06-01 |
| 2025-05-02 | Health | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | D | 2025-06-01 |
| 2025-05-02 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2025-06-01 |
| 2025-05-02 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | F | 2025-06-01 |
| 2025-05-02 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | F | 2025-06-01 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | F | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-10-02 | Health · complaint | F0687 | Provide appropriate foot care. | D | 2024-11-01 |
| 2024-05-03 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-05-28 |
| 2024-04-19 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-05-28 |
| 2024-04-19 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-05-28 |
| 2024-02-28 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2024-03-27 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | G | 2024-03-27 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | G | 2024-03-27 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | E | 2024-01-31 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CITY & COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| ARNOLD, TIMOTHY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CARTON-WADE, JENNIFER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DREW, JEFFREY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ISTVAN, THOMAS | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LAM, ALBERT | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-01-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SIDHU, DILTAR | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TALAI, NAWZANEEN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ALBERT LAM | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-01-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DILTAR SIDHU | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEFFREY DREW | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JENNIFER CARTON-WADE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NAWZANEEN TALAI | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| THOMAS ISTVAN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2023-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TIMOTHY ARNOLD | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06075 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,574 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06075 | fmr | 0 | $2,485 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06075 | acs median gross | 1 | $2,455 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06075 | fmr | 1 | $2,977 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06075 | acs median gross | 2 | $3,124 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06075 | fmr | 2 | $3,604 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06075 | acs median gross | 3 | $3,469 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06075 | fmr | 3 | $4,604 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06075 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06075 | fmr | 4 | $4,772 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06075 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,913 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06075 | acs median gross | $2,476 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06075 | acs recent mover gross | $3,019 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 94116 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,703 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 94116 | acs median gross | 1 | $2,146 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 94116 | acs median gross | 2 | $3,173 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 94116 | acs median gross | 3 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 94116 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,885 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 94116 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 94116 | acs median gross | $2,999 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 94116 | acs recent mover gross | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 94116 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $3,003 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $2,457 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | safmr | 0 | $2,730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $3,597 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,943 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | safmr | 1 | $3,270 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $4,356 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $3,564 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | safmr | 2 | $3,960 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $5,566 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $4,554 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | safmr | 3 | $5,060 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $5,764 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $4,716 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 94116 | safmr | 4 | $5,240 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |