Reads as: riskier than 36.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.42
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.44
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.31
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.46
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
133.0
3.42
0.44
0.72
2.26
3.31
0.0%
2025Q3
92
131.1
3.42
0.46
0.74
2.22
3.28
0.0%
2025Q2
91
121.5
3.68
0.51
0.78
2.38
3.55
0.0%
2025Q1
90
126.7
3.35
0.43
0.73
2.18
3.23
0.0%
2024Q4
92
127.6
3.39
0.44
0.74
2.21
3.18
0.0%
2024Q3
92
132.1
3.47
0.42
0.80
2.25
3.23
0.0%
2024Q2
91
129.6
3.02
0.30
0.79
1.93
2.79
0.0%
2024Q1
91
126.4
3.01
0.30
0.85
1.86
2.83
0.0%
2023Q4
92
125.4
3.12
0.26
0.94
1.92
2.89
0.0%
2023Q3
92
122.8
3.06
0.23
1.00
1.83
2.85
0.0%
2023Q2
91
121.5
2.84
0.17
0.97
1.70
2.66
0.0%
2023Q1
90
115.9
2.78
0.25
1.02
1.50
2.69
0.0%
2022Q4
92
128.8
2.92
0.26
0.99
1.68
2.73
0.0%
2022Q3
92
125.2
3.09
0.34
0.90
1.85
2.87
0.0%
2022Q2
91
120.5
3.15
0.38
0.85
1.92
3.08
0.0%
2022Q1
90
116.3
2.88
0.43
0.63
1.82
2.73
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
14
D × 14
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-08-09
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-08-12
2024-04-18
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-04-26
2024-04-18
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-04-26
2024-04-18
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-04-26
2024-04-18
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-04-26
2024-04-18
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-04-26
2023-11-21
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-11-28
2023-10-19
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-10-21
2023-08-25
Health · complaint
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2023-09-08
2020-03-12
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2020-04-01
2020-03-12
Health
F0624
Prepare residents for a safe transfer or discharge from the nursing home.
D
2020-04-01
2020-03-12
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2020-04-01
2019-01-31
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2019-02-22
2019-01-31
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2019-02-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARRY N BORTZ 06042009 TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
72%
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
EPPERS, DAVID
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BORTZ FAMILY IRREVOCABLE T/A
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2014-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARESPRING HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-04-23
current
pecos_ownership
CHIRUMBOLO, CHRISTOPHER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS, JILLIAN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2020-01-12
current
pecos_ownership
STONESPRING REA
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
STONESPRING REA
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CHRISTOPHER CHIRUMBOLO
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2016-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JILLIAN DOUGLAS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2020-01-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID EPPERS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2013-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STONESPRING REA
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
STONESPRING REA
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
STONESPRING REA
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,088,012
—
$1,088,012
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$873,677
—
$873,677
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$833,813
—
$833,813
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$772,753
—
$772,753
—
—
2
propco
2020-12-31
$718,790
—
$718,790
—
—
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39113
acs median gross
0
$728
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
0
$928
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
1
$816
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
1
$1,009
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
2
$1,011
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
2
$1,273
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
3
$1,199
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
3
$1,651
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
4
$1,282
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
4
$1,817
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
5
$1,470
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
acs median gross
$1,026
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
acs recent mover gross
$1,198
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45414
acs median gross
1
$657
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45414
acs median gross
2
$952
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45414
acs median gross
3
$974
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45414
acs median gross
$904
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45414
acs recent mover gross
$972
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 45414
payment standard 110
0
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
payment standard 90
0
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
safmr
0
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
payment standard 110
1
$1,023
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
payment standard 90
1
$837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
safmr
1
$930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
payment standard 110
2
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
payment standard 90
2
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
safmr
2
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
payment standard 110
3
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
payment standard 90
3
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
safmr
3
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
payment standard 110
4
$1,837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
payment standard 90
4
$1,503
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45414
safmr
4
$1,670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.