Reads as: riskier than 91.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.5 vs natl
SINGERMAN JOSEPH
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.8 vs natl
OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
17 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.4 vs natl
BAUMOL YEHOSHUA
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.2 vs natl
AARON JONATHAN
32 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.4 vs natl
GRAF MARCELLA
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.3 vs natl
KROLL GABRIEL
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
AARON FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
7 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.31
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.35
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.00
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.43
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
81.6
3.31
0.35
0.95
2.00
3.00
0.0%
2025Q3
92
79.4
3.50
0.38
1.00
2.11
3.21
0.1%
2025Q2
91
85.3
3.32
0.38
0.92
2.03
2.89
0.5%
2025Q1
90
85.8
3.14
0.39
0.91
1.84
2.81
0.0%
2024Q4
92
76.3
3.59
0.37
1.06
2.16
3.24
0.0%
2024Q3
92
79.8
3.66
0.36
1.06
2.24
3.27
2.5%
2024Q2
91
87.4
3.17
0.25
1.03
1.89
2.93
13.6%
2024Q1
91
89.3
3.12
0.25
0.97
1.90
2.90
13.7%
2023Q4
92
93.0
3.19
0.26
0.97
1.96
3.04
13.6%
2023Q3
92
90.8
3.29
0.27
0.96
2.06
3.14
24.7%
2023Q2
91
87.6
3.15
0.26
0.96
1.93
2.90
28.4%
2023Q1
90
85.2
3.30
0.30
1.00
2.00
2.99
34.0%
2022Q4
92
83.6
2.83
0.16
0.84
1.82
2.91
36.7%
2022Q3
92
78.7
3.18
0.19
0.87
2.12
3.19
33.5%
2022Q2
91
80.7
2.93
0.17
0.90
1.87
2.76
24.3%
2022Q1
90
78.4
2.78
0.21
0.93
1.65
2.55
12.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-09-23
2025-08-28
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2025-09-23
2025-08-28
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2025-09-23
2025-08-28
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-09-23
2025-08-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-09-23
2025-07-07
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-07-20
2025-07-07
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-07-20
2025-03-13
Health · complaint
F0573
Let each resident or the resident's legal representative access or purchase copies of all the resident's records.
D
2025-04-04
2025-03-13
Health · complaint
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2025-04-04
2025-03-13
Health · complaint
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
E
2025-04-04
2025-03-13
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-04-04
2024-07-01
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
J
2024-07-25
2024-05-02
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-05-20
2023-11-02
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-11-30
2023-11-02
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-11-30
2023-11-02
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-11-30
2023-11-02
Health · complaint
F0800
Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs.
D
2023-11-30
2023-05-10
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2023-06-01
2023-05-10
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2023-06-01
2023-05-10
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-06-01
2023-05-10
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-06-01
2023-05-10
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-06-01
2023-05-10
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-06-01
2021-11-04
Health
F0563
Honor the resident's right to receive visitors of his or her choosing, at the time of his or her choosing.
F
2021-12-13
2021-11-04
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2021-12-13
2021-11-04
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2021-12-13
2021-11-04
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2021-12-13
2021-11-04
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2021-12-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
AARON FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
AARON, JONATHAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
AARON, JONATHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
AB INVESTMENT TRUST U/A/D 1/3/23
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAUMOL, YEHOSHUA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
BAUMOL, YEHOSHUA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
EVANS, KAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-10
current
pecos_ownership
GRAF, MARCELLA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
GRAF, MARCELLA
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KROLL, GABRIEL
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NAGEL, STEVEN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SINGERMAN, JOSEPH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-25
current
pecos_ownership
TODD A STERN 2015 IRRV INS TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN AARON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AARON FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YEHOSHUA BAUMOL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
28%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AB INVESTMENT TRUST U/A/D 1/3/23
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD A STERN 2015 IRRV INS TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
12%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL INVESTMENT TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN ISRAEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2018-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD STERN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2018-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CIBC BANK USA
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2018-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY DURHAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-10-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,163,531
—
$421,967
$524,989
—
6
—
2023-12-31
$1,119,376
—
$328,997
$588,856
—
6
—
2022-12-31
$2,243,224
—
$359,087
$611,642
—
8
—
2021-12-31
$2,292,565
—
$464,621
$685,160
—
8
—
2020-12-31
$2,157,408
—
$443,925
$585,653
—
8
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39095
acs median gross
0
$675
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39095
fmr
0
$769
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39095
acs median gross
1
$703
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39095
fmr
1
$820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39095
acs median gross
2
$973
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39095
fmr
2
$1,076
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39095
acs median gross
3
$1,140
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39095
fmr
3
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39095
acs median gross
4
$1,181
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39095
fmr
4
$1,454
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39095
acs median gross
5
$1,297
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39095
acs median gross
$934
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39095
acs recent mover gross
$982
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 43528
acs median gross
0
$676
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 43528
acs median gross
1
$768
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 43528
acs median gross
2
$1,097
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 43528
acs median gross
3
$1,234
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 43528
acs median gross
4
$1,207
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 43528
acs median gross
$1,060
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 43528
acs recent mover gross
$1,360
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 43528
payment standard 110
0
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
payment standard 90
0
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
safmr
0
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
payment standard 110
1
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
payment standard 90
1
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
safmr
1
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
payment standard 110
2
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
payment standard 90
2
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
safmr
2
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
payment standard 110
3
$1,793
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
payment standard 90
3
$1,467
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
safmr
3
$1,630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
payment standard 110
4
$1,892
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
payment standard 90
4
$1,548
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 43528
safmr
4
$1,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.