1235 S MOUNT VERNON AVENUE, WILLIAMSBURG, VA 23185 · CCN 495235 · chain SAESSY IRREVOCABLE TRUST
Composite
73.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
130
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 73.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
VA 6 SNF OPERATIONS HOLDINGS LLC
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
VA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.73
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.32
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.67
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.76
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
95.0
2.73
0.32
0.66
1.76
2.67
20.8%
2025Q3
92
89.9
2.65
0.33
0.59
1.73
2.57
25.1%
2025Q2
91
82.1
2.67
0.26
0.72
1.69
2.57
17.0%
2025Q1
90
81.8
2.60
0.33
0.66
1.61
2.48
13.3%
2024Q4
92
75.7
2.65
0.32
0.75
1.57
2.33
0.0%
2024Q3
92
75.5
2.64
0.30
0.70
1.64
2.30
0.0%
2024Q2
91
70.3
2.69
0.33
0.72
1.64
2.38
0.0%
2024Q1
91
71.9
2.83
0.33
0.94
1.55
2.51
0.0%
2023Q4
92
70.3
3.23
0.35
1.17
1.72
2.90
0.0%
2023Q3
92
70.2
3.29
0.28
1.24
1.77
2.86
7.2%
2023Q2
91
67.3
3.15
0.26
1.20
1.69
2.72
12.5%
2023Q1
90
68.9
2.79
0.17
1.01
1.62
2.75
5.3%
2022Q4
92
71.9
2.91
0.17
0.85
1.89
2.45
0.1%
2022Q3
92
69.4
2.76
0.30
0.86
1.60
2.31
0.2%
2022Q2
91
61.7
2.27
0.26
0.82
1.20
1.99
13.8%
2022Q1
90
77.7
2.19
0.32
0.67
1.20
2.01
36.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
32
C × 1D × 24E × 6F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-11-14
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-12-23
2025-11-14
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-12-23
2025-11-14
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2025-12-23
2025-11-14
Health · complaint
F0882
Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home.
E
2025-12-23
2024-10-28
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-11-06
2024-04-19
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-05-31
2024-04-19
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-05-31
2024-04-19
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-05-31
2023-10-20
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
E
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0687
Provide appropriate foot care.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0865
Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities.
F
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
E
2023-12-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2023-12-05
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-07-26
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
12
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
VA 6 SNF OPERATIONS HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
IDELS, SHIMON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOUNT VERNON AVE SNF REAL ESTATE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-02-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
MOUNT VERNON AVE SNF REAL ESTATE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-02-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PHILLIPS, CHARLES
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
LION 26 HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
49%
2022-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SABRINA 1818 HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
49%
2022-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAESSY IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
46%
2022-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TATIRIQ IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
46%
2022-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES PHILLIPS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MOUNT VERNON AVE SNF REAL ESTATE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-12-01
ended 2023-01-31
hcris_a_8_1
SHIMON IDELS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-01-31
$3,552,522
$3,187,570
—
—
—
5
propco
2024-01-31
$2,795,680
$2,621,956
—
—
—
4
propco
2023-01-31
$431,534
$410,678
—
—
—
4
propco
2022-11-30
$305,618
—
—
—
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$436,720
—
—
—
—
5
—
2020-12-31
$451,768
—
—
—
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 51830
acs median gross
0
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51830
fmr
0
$1,492
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51830
acs median gross
1
$1,047
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51830
fmr
1
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51830
acs median gross
2
$1,391
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51830
fmr
2
$1,713
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51830
acs median gross
3
$1,583
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51830
fmr
3
$2,376
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51830
acs median gross
4
$2,245
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51830
fmr
4
$2,797
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51830
acs median gross
$1,407
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51830
acs recent mover gross
$1,719
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
0
$921
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
1
$1,303
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
2
$1,425
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
3
$1,858
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
4
$2,255
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
5
$1,869
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
$1,489
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs recent mover gross
$1,777
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 23185
payment standard 110
0
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 90
0
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
safmr
0
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 110
1
$1,749
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 90
1
$1,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
safmr
1
$1,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 110
2
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 90
2
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
safmr
2
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 110
3
$2,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 90
3
$2,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
safmr
3
$2,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 110
4
$3,234
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 90
4
$2,646
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
safmr
4
$2,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.