Composite
70.6 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 81.9 | 78.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 18.90 | in index |
| staffing risk | 97.7 | 97.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 18.79 | in index |
| financial risk | 41.2 | 40.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 9.51 | in index |
| chow risk | 78.4 | 59.2 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 9.05 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 46% fined | BELT MIRANDA | 11 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 46% fined | PITTS JACI | 11 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 43% fined | TAYLOR SANDRA | 14 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 42% fined | BGM ESTATE LLC | 12 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 41% fined | MITCHELL KELLY | 17 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 55.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 63.4 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 40.3 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 78.8 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 97.7 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 80.5 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 60.5 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 25.0 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 44.5 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 78.7 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 78.7 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 97.7 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 97.7 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.59 | -1.30 | |
| Occupancy | 0.44 | +0.75 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 20.00 | +0.31 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.04 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 20.00 | -2.28 | |
| Occupancy | 0.44 | +1.30 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 9.98 | -0.55 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.04 | +0.50 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.56 | -0.29 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OK median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.04 | 2.78 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 1.96 | 2.72 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.07 | 2.80 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 28.6 | 2.04 | 0.12 | 0.86 | 1.05 | 1.96 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 24.0 | 2.05 | 0.12 | 0.89 | 1.04 | 1.78 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 26.4 | 2.10 | 0.12 | 0.85 | 1.13 | 2.11 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 27.5 | 2.10 | 0.09 | 0.81 | 1.20 | 2.36 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 23.2 | 2.28 | 0.09 | 0.92 | 1.27 | 2.53 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 19.8 | 2.89 | 0.11 | 1.04 | 1.73 | 3.25 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 23.1 | 2.49 | 0.10 | 0.89 | 1.50 | 2.51 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 26.5 | 2.31 | 0.10 | 0.89 | 1.33 | 2.58 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 26.4 | 2.42 | 0.08 | 0.88 | 1.46 | 2.52 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 26.9 | 2.33 | 0.08 | 0.78 | 1.46 | 2.41 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 27.5 | 2.16 | 0.06 | 0.78 | 1.32 | 1.87 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 27.8 | 2.06 | 0.07 | 0.81 | 1.19 | 1.65 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 28.6 | 2.11 | 0.08 | 0.78 | 1.26 | 1.81 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 28.1 | 2.20 | 0.09 | 0.86 | 1.25 | 2.26 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 27.6 | 2.33 | 0.16 | 0.74 | 1.43 | 2.22 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 26.5 | 2.33 | 0.10 | 0.83 | 1.40 | 2.37 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Fine | $21,645 | CMS provider data |
| 2026-03-17 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2023-07-31 | Fine | $7,443 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | — |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | E | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0627 | Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge. | D | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | D | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | D | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | E | 2026-04-30 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | E | 2026-04-30 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | F | 2026-04-30 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2026-04-30 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2026-04-30 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | F | 2026-04-30 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | F | 2026-04-30 |
| 2026-03-17 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2026-04-30 |
| 2024-08-07 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-09-30 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2023-08-18 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2023-08-18 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2023-08-18 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2023-08-18 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2023-08-18 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2023-08-18 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | E | 2023-08-18 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2023-08-18 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | E | 2023-08-18 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | E | 2023-08-18 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | E | 2023-08-18 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-08-18 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health | F0909 | Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame. | D | 2023-08-18 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGM ESTATE LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 83% | 2020-12-27 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MITCHELL, KELLY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 17% | 2020-12-27 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BELT, MIRANDA | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-12-09 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LOWRIMORE, MORGAN | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2020-12-27 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PITTS, JACI | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-12-09 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TAYLOR, SANDRA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2020-12-27 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KELLY MITCHELL | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 17% | 2020-12-27 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JACI PITTS | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-12-09 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MIRANDA BELT | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-12-09 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MORGAN LOWRIMORE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2020-12-27 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SANDRA TAYLOR | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2020-12-27 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-27 | — | COLONIAL CARE CENTER, LLC | CITY OF HUGO | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT TULSA, LLC | — | — | — | 104 | IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT TULSA, LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | THE COMMONS | — | — | — | 138 | COMMONS OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | BEADLES NEW BEGINNINGS | — | — | — | 80 | BEADLES OPERATIONS, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | STIGLER NURSING & REHAB | — | — | — | 80 | HASKELL NURSING & REHAB LLC |
| 2024-07-01 | NOWATA NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 65 | NOWATA LTC LLC |
| 2024-05-14 | EASTGATE VILLAGE CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 110 | EASTGATE HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2024-05-14 | Broadway Care & Rehab Center | — | — | — | 105 | BROADWAY HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2024-05-14 | FORT GIBSON CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | FORT GIBSON HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | HERITAGE MANOR | — | — | — | 55 | HERITAGE MANOR MANAGEMENT LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | HERITAGE PARK | — | — | — | 55 | HERITAGE PARK MANAGEMENT, LLC |
| 2024-01-09 | COWETA CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 100 | COWETA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC |
| 2024-01-09 | MITCHELL CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 100 | MITCHELL HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT, LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 40097 | acs median gross | 0 | $915 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40097 | fmr | 0 | $731 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40097 | acs median gross | 1 | $568 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40097 | fmr | 1 | $736 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40097 | acs median gross | 2 | $802 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40097 | fmr | 2 | $937 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40097 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,031 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40097 | fmr | 3 | $1,233 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40097 | acs median gross | 4 | $836 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40097 | fmr | 4 | $1,409 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40097 | acs median gross | 5 | $538 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40097 | acs median gross | $858 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 40097 | acs recent mover gross | $937 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 74337 | acs median gross | 1 | $606 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 74337 | acs median gross | 2 | $723 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 74337 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,136 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 74337 | acs median gross | $776 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 74337 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $803 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $657 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | safmr | 0 | $730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $814 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $666 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | safmr | 1 | $740 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,034 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $846 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | safmr | 2 | $940 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,353 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,107 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | safmr | 3 | $1,230 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,551 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,269 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74337 | safmr | 4 | $1,410 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |