2121 PINE STREET, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94115 · CCN 055848 · chain PACS HOLDINGS LLC
Composite
31.4 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
90
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 31.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MURRAY JASON
40 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HANCOCK MARK
158 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.75
3.95
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.43
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.71
3.79
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.76
4.01
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
87.3
3.75
0.43
0.77
2.55
3.71
16.1%
2025Q3
92
87.4
3.72
0.46
0.74
2.52
3.64
14.7%
2025Q2
91
87.1
3.71
0.41
0.78
2.52
3.64
20.9%
2025Q1
90
86.1
3.66
0.46
0.78
2.42
3.58
19.9%
2024Q4
92
84.9
3.63
0.54
0.73
2.36
3.51
15.0%
2024Q3
92
86.4
3.17
0.64
0.57
1.95
2.91
10.6%
2024Q2
91
85.4
3.46
0.71
0.53
2.22
3.24
9.7%
2024Q1
91
84.0
3.41
0.76
0.48
2.17
3.20
3.3%
2023Q4
92
80.7
3.56
0.69
0.60
2.27
3.34
0.0%
2023Q3
92
82.6
3.49
0.51
0.72
2.25
3.33
0.0%
2023Q2
91
83.3
3.50
0.40
0.80
2.31
3.26
0.0%
2023Q1
90
89.4
2.91
0.22
0.73
1.96
2.82
0.0%
2022Q4
92
80.0
3.32
0.36
0.70
2.26
3.26
0.0%
2022Q3
92
78.4
3.59
0.62
0.62
2.35
3.53
0.0%
2022Q2
91
84.2
3.44
0.55
0.63
2.26
3.34
0.0%
2022Q1
90
80.7
3.48
0.45
0.72
2.31
3.33
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
36
D × 24E × 5F × 5G × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-02-20
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-03-14
2024-03-08
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-06-05
2024-03-07
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-06-05
2023-04-21
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
E
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0745
Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
E
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
F
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0912
Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms.
D
2023-06-02
2023-04-21
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
D
2023-06-02
2019-08-23
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2019-11-07
2019-08-23
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2019-11-07
2019-08-23
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2019-11-07
2019-08-23
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2019-11-07
2019-08-23
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
G
2019-11-07
2019-08-23
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
F
2019-11-07
2019-08-23
Health
F0745
Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life.
G
2019-11-07
2019-08-23
Health
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
E
2019-11-07
2019-08-23
Health
F0808
Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.
E
2019-11-07
2019-08-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-11-07
2019-08-23
Health
F0825
Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident.
D
2019-11-07
2019-08-23
Health
F0912
Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms.
F
2019-11-07
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BAY AREA MASTER TENANT LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2017-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
APT, FREDERICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOCK, MARK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
MURRAY, JASON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
RUSSELL, MATTHEW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-07
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2017-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
CORPORATE OFFICER
50%
2017-07-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2020-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
CORPORATE OFFICER
50%
2017-07-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2020-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-02-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-02-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW RUSSELL
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2019-01-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$900,867
—
$900,867
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$1,018,544
—
$1,018,544
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$971,749
—
$971,749
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$1,129,608
—
$1,136,422
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$561,901
—
$561,901
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 06075
acs median gross
0
$1,574
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
fmr
0
$2,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06075
acs median gross
1
$2,455
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
fmr
1
$2,977
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06075
acs median gross
2
$3,124
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
fmr
2
$3,604
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06075
acs median gross
3
$3,469
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
fmr
3
$4,604
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06075
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
fmr
4
$4,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06075
acs median gross
5
$1,913
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
acs median gross
$2,476
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
acs recent mover gross
$3,019
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94115
acs median gross
0
$2,086
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94115
acs median gross
1
$2,388
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94115
acs median gross
2
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94115
acs median gross
3
$3,117
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94115
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94115
acs median gross
5
$2,281
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94115
acs median gross
$2,476
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94115
acs recent mover gross
$3,075
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 94115
payment standard 110
0
$3,124
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
payment standard 90
0
$2,556
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
safmr
0
$2,840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
payment standard 110
1
$3,740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
payment standard 90
1
$3,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
safmr
1
$3,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
payment standard 110
2
$4,532
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
payment standard 90
2
$3,708
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
safmr
2
$4,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
payment standard 110
3
$5,786
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
payment standard 90
3
$4,734
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
safmr
3
$5,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
payment standard 110
4
$5,995
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
payment standard 90
4
$4,905
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94115
safmr
4
$5,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.