Composite
83.4 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 96.9 | 95.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 22.36 | in index |
| billing conduct | 92.3 | 62.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 21.30 | in index |
| staffing risk | 57.6 | 57.6 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 11.08 | in index |
| financial risk | 19.3 | 26.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 4.45 | in index |
| chow risk | 26.5 | 25.5 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 3.06 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 62.2 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 26.0 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 26.5 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 95.5 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 57.6 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 58.5 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 38.5 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 27.8 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 31.8 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 95.5 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 95.5 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 57.6 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 57.6 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.16 | -1.35 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | -0.15 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.16 | -0.22 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 4.83 | -0.10 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | TN median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.17 | 3.28 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.22 | 0.34 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.81 | 3.10 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.31 | 3.36 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 90.3 | 3.17 | 0.22 | 1.02 | 1.93 | 2.81 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 95.4 | 3.30 | 0.23 | 0.94 | 2.13 | 2.75 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 88.7 | 3.13 | 0.15 | 1.08 | 1.89 | 2.41 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 85.0 | 2.96 | 0.09 | 1.28 | 1.59 | 2.30 | 9.8% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 94.6 | 2.91 | 0.23 | 1.21 | 1.48 | 2.42 | 7.1% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 95.9 | 2.83 | 0.30 | 1.04 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 0.1% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 98.2 | 2.83 | 0.35 | 1.01 | 1.47 | 2.62 | 2.2% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 103.8 | 2.72 | 0.21 | 0.95 | 1.56 | 2.59 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 105.4 | 2.81 | 0.20 | 0.90 | 1.72 | 2.70 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 102.3 | 2.63 | 0.20 | 0.91 | 1.52 | 2.58 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 95.6 | 3.29 | 0.29 | 1.04 | 1.96 | 3.19 | 14.5% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 93.0 | 3.17 | 0.35 | 0.96 | 1.85 | 3.11 | 15.7% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 98.5 | 3.08 | 0.36 | 0.79 | 1.93 | 2.63 | 22.4% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 92.4 | 2.88 | 0.46 | 0.67 | 1.75 | 2.63 | 0.2% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 86.5 | 2.87 | 0.46 | 0.62 | 1.79 | 2.76 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 80.3 | 2.49 | 0.32 | 0.63 | 1.54 | 2.15 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-18 | Fine | $250,780 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-11-18 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-12 | Health · complaint | F0850 | Hire a qualified full-time social worker in a facility with more than 120 beds. | D | 2026-03-18 |
| 2025-05-05 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-05-18 |
| 2025-01-23 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2025-02-08 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | F | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | E | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | K | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2025-02-08 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | D | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | L | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | L | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0837 | Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility. | L | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | D | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | L | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | L | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-09-05 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-09-20 |
| 2021-07-13 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | L | 2021-07-19 |
| 2021-07-13 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | L | 2021-07-19 |
| 2021-07-13 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | L | 2021-07-19 |
| 2021-07-13 | Health | F0741 | Ensure that the facility has sufficient staff members who possess the competencies and skills to meet the behavioral health needs of residents. | L | 2021-07-19 |
| 2021-07-13 | Health | F0744 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia. | L | 2021-07-19 |
| 2021-07-13 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | L | 2021-07-19 |
| 2019-04-17 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2019-05-10 |
| 2019-04-17 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2019-05-09 |
| 2019-04-17 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2019-05-10 |
| 2019-04-17 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2019-05-09 |
| 2019-04-17 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2019-05-09 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AREM, JEFFREY | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2021-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HERSKOWITZ, DAVID | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2021-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KASPER, AARON | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2021-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MOSKOWITZ, ISAAC | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2021-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STEVENSON, MARY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-02-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VENTURA, JUANCHICHOS | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2021-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ISAAC MOSKOWITZ | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 39% | 2021-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEFFREY AREM | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 39% | 2021-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DAVID HERSKOWITZ | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 20% | 2021-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AARON KASPER | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 2% | 2021-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CHURCH HILL PROPERTIES | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CHURCH HILL PROPERTIES | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-05-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| JUANCHICHOS VENTURA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2021-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARY STEVENSON | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-02-17 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-01 | — | CHURCH HILL TN OPCO LLC | VANGUARD OF CHURCH HILL, LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | WEXFORD HOUSE | — | — | — | 174 | WEXFORD OPERATING GROUP LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | LAUGHLIN HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 90 | LAUGHLIN OPERATING GROUP LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | EATON CREEK POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 124 | NASHVILLE SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | APPLINGWOOD POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 78 | DOHENY BEACH HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | Meadowbrook Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 83 | BIG CREEK HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-01-01 | Westwood Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | BLACK WOLF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | SHELBY OAKS POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 77 | EAGLE LAKE HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | Stone River Post Acute | — | — | — | 68 | MURFREESBORO SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | UNION CITY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | TURNER HEALTHCARE INC |
| 2025-01-01 | Decatur County Healthcare | — | — | — | 125 | BEAR CREEK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | COVINGTON POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 98 | FLORIDA BAY HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | CYPRESS GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 170 | GOODHOPE BAY HOLDINGS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 47073 | fmr | 0 | $720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 47073 | acs median gross | 1 | $583 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 47073 | fmr | 1 | $818 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 47073 | acs median gross | 2 | $749 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 47073 | fmr | 2 | $1,044 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 47073 | acs median gross | 3 | $881 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 47073 | fmr | 3 | $1,338 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 47073 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,076 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 47073 | fmr | 4 | $1,464 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 47073 | acs median gross | $785 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 47073 | acs recent mover gross | $930 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 37642 | acs median gross | 1 | $825 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 37642 | acs median gross | 2 | $793 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 37642 | acs median gross | 3 | $889 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 37642 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,250 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 37642 | acs median gross | $885 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 37642 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $858 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $702 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | safmr | 0 | $780 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $979 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $801 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | safmr | 1 | $890 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,243 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,017 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | safmr | 2 | $1,130 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,595 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,305 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | safmr | 3 | $1,450 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,749 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,431 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 37642 | safmr | 4 | $1,590 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |