Composite
56.8 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 69.3 | 47.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.99 | in index |
| financial risk | 69.0 | 58.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.92 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 31.4 | 21.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 7.25 | in index |
| staffing risk | 32.7 | 32.8 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 6.29 | in index |
| chow risk | 46.4 | 49.8 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.35 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 47.4 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.3 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 75.3 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 58.5 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 9.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 21.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 32.8 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 75.2 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 55.2 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 50.2 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 62.6 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 21.5 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 21.5 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 32.8 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 32.8 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.37 | +0.53 | |
| Occupancy | 0.53 | +0.48 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.37 | -1.34 | |
| Occupancy | 0.53 | +0.91 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.62 | +0.26 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.59 | -0.16 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OH median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.59 | 3.24 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.32 | 3.11 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.70 | 3.29 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 45.2 | 3.59 | 0.43 | 0.86 | 2.30 | 3.32 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 48.5 | 3.03 | 0.47 | 0.59 | 1.97 | 2.79 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 49.1 | 3.05 | 0.65 | 0.43 | 1.96 | 2.83 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 53.2 | 2.94 | 0.64 | 0.35 | 1.94 | 2.88 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 50.6 | 2.97 | 0.61 | 0.41 | 1.95 | 2.95 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 55.8 | 2.98 | 0.64 | 0.32 | 2.03 | 2.84 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 56.6 | 3.04 | 0.66 | 0.37 | 2.00 | 2.98 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 60.1 | 3.13 | 0.64 | 0.48 | 2.00 | 2.99 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 57.7 | 3.09 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 1.84 | 2.87 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 60.6 | 2.85 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 1.80 | 2.55 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 58.3 | 2.74 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 1.81 | 2.58 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 58.2 | 2.73 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.73 | 2.52 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 53.0 | 2.92 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 1.82 | 2.75 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 53.4 | 2.87 | 0.61 | 0.38 | 1.88 | 2.84 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 51.4 | 2.96 | 0.60 | 0.41 | 1.95 | 2.93 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 55.2 | 2.88 | 0.57 | 0.34 | 1.97 | 2.91 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-26 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2025-07-11 |
| 2025-06-26 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-07-11 |
| 2025-06-26 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2025-07-11 |
| 2024-04-11 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2024-05-13 |
| 2024-04-11 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | E | 2024-05-13 |
| 2024-04-11 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-05-13 |
| 2024-04-11 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | D | 2024-05-13 |
| 2024-04-11 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-05-13 |
| 2024-04-11 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-05-13 |
| 2024-04-11 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-05-13 |
| 2024-04-11 | Health · complaint | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2024-05-13 |
| 2024-04-11 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | D | 2024-05-13 |
| 2024-04-11 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | D | 2024-05-13 |
| 2024-04-11 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-05-13 |
| 2024-04-11 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | D | 2024-05-13 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | E | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0568 | Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home. | E | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | D | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0661 | Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge. | D | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | E | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0680 | Ensure the activities program is directed by a qualified professional. | E | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | G | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | E | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0808 | Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law. | D | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2022-06-23 |
| 2022-05-29 | Health | F0887 | Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status. | D | 2022-06-23 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARK OPCO GROUP, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| B&Y HEALTHCARE S CORP | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| B&Y TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CODY HEALTHCARE S CORP | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CRAIG FLASHNER 2007 TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FLASHNER, CRAIG | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KIRK, KRISTINE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2016-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NOBLE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NORCROSS, ROBERT | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PERLSTEIN, YITZCHOK | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PRESTIGE ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2016-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ROGERS, STACEY | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CRAIG FLASHNER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KRISTINE KIRK | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2016-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERT NORCROSS | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STACEY ROGERS | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| YITZCHOK PERLSTEIN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2015-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | SAPPHIRE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | SAPPHIRE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF POINT PLACE | — | — | — | 82 | POINT PLACE OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON | — | — | — | 82 | NEW LEXINGTON OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | ATRIUM OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Inniswood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | FHS INNISWOOD, INC. |
| 2024-12-31 | COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 110 | CS OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF PERRYSBURG | — | — | — | 75 | PERRYSBURG OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | GRAFTON OAKS NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | GO OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF KENT | — | — | — | 74 | KENT OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | Chardon Woods | — | — | — | 161 | CHARDON WOODS OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-12-16 | The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 60 | PAVILION AT CANAL FULTON LLC |
| 2024-12-02 | BENNINGTON GLEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | FHS BENNINGTON INC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 39111 | fmr | 0 | $736 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39111 | acs median gross | 1 | $479 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39111 | fmr | 1 | $742 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39111 | acs median gross | 2 | $803 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39111 | fmr | 2 | $973 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39111 | acs median gross | 3 | $678 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39111 | fmr | 3 | $1,283 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39111 | acs median gross | 4 | $888 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39111 | fmr | 4 | $1,288 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39111 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,125 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39111 | acs median gross | $672 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 39111 | acs recent mover gross | $608 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 43793 | acs median gross | 1 | $484 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43793 | acs median gross | 2 | $860 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43793 | acs median gross | 3 | $767 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43793 | acs median gross | 4 | $917 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 43793 | acs median gross | $707 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 43793 | acs recent mover gross | $636 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 43793 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $814 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $666 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | safmr | 0 | $740 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $814 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $666 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | safmr | 1 | $740 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,067 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $873 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | safmr | 2 | $970 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,408 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,152 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | safmr | 3 | $1,280 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,419 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,161 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 43793 | safmr | 4 | $1,290 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |