Reads as: riskier than 32.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
VANGUARD GROUP INC
324 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MORGAN STANLEY
39 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.19
3.28
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.52
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.94
3.10
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.28
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
54.2
3.19
0.52
0.89
1.77
2.94
0.0%
2025Q3
92
52.6
3.01
0.44
0.89
1.68
2.64
0.0%
2025Q2
91
55.7
2.65
0.50
0.78
1.38
2.43
0.0%
2025Q1
90
53.1
3.23
0.42
1.05
1.76
3.01
0.0%
2024Q4
92
51.0
3.17
0.38
1.20
1.59
2.82
0.0%
2024Q3
92
52.7
3.11
0.44
1.12
1.55
2.60
6.6%
2024Q2
91
55.4
3.44
0.41
1.18
1.84
3.05
20.3%
2024Q1
91
55.5
3.43
0.41
1.17
1.85
3.02
31.1%
2023Q4
92
55.5
3.47
0.36
1.16
1.95
3.25
35.0%
2023Q3
92
56.2
3.40
0.43
1.03
1.93
3.19
41.3%
2023Q2
91
54.2
3.32
0.52
0.97
1.82
3.14
36.4%
2023Q1
90
52.7
3.18
0.50
1.04
1.64
3.07
32.3%
2022Q4
92
53.0
3.80
0.39
1.24
2.17
3.42
50.9%
2022Q3
92
54.9
3.26
0.26
1.15
1.85
2.90
55.5%
2022Q2
91
50.5
3.82
0.35
1.27
2.20
3.40
45.3%
2022Q1
90
48.9
3.31
0.36
1.02
1.93
3.21
20.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
15
D × 11E × 1F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-22
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-02-18
2026-01-22
Health
F0569
Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death.
D
2026-02-18
2026-01-22
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2026-02-18
2025-02-14
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-03-05
2025-02-14
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2025-03-05
2025-02-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-03-05
2023-06-27
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-07-27
2023-06-27
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-07-27
2023-06-27
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-07-27
2022-03-09
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2022-04-12
2022-03-09
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2022-04-12
2022-03-09
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2022-04-12
2022-03-09
Health
F0809
Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times.
F
2022-04-12
2022-03-09
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-04-12
2022-03-09
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-04-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BIDWELL, CHARLES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-15
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, TRACY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1993-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
DODSON, VICKI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
JEFFERSON, KELLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JEFFERSON, KELLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-25
current
pecos_ownership
KELLER, ALLISON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-29
current
pecos_ownership
KELLER, ALLISON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-25
current
pecos_ownership
KIDD, BRIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
NHC-OP LP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHELLY, TIMOTHY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
USSERY, ROBERT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-11-30
current
pecos_ownership
BLACKROCK INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2019-03-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2017-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CORPORATION
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2000-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2023-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NHC/DELAWARE INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2020-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALLISON KELLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALLISON KELLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN KIDD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES BIDWELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLEY JEFFERSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLEY JEFFERSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2000-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT USSERY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY SHELLY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRACY BROWN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1993-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICKI DODSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$556,463
—
$347,042
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$353,894
—
—
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$264,871
—
—
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$584,389
—
—
$27,120
$9,331
2
—
2020-12-31
$596,972
—
$4,348
$163,109
$4,067
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 47117
fmr
0
$788
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47117
acs median gross
1
$426
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47117
fmr
1
$793
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47117
acs median gross
2
$870
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47117
fmr
2
$1,041
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47117
acs median gross
3
$1,144
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47117
fmr
3
$1,373
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47117
acs median gross
4
$1,286
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47117
fmr
4
$1,378
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47117
acs median gross
$946
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47117
acs recent mover gross
$1,801
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37091
acs median gross
1
$440
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37091
acs median gross
2
$863
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37091
acs median gross
3
$1,042
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37091
acs median gross
4
$1,558
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37091
acs median gross
$887
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37091
acs recent mover gross
$1,716
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 37091
payment standard 110
0
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
payment standard 90
0
$936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
safmr
0
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
payment standard 110
1
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
payment standard 90
1
$936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
safmr
1
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
payment standard 110
2
$1,463
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
payment standard 90
2
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
safmr
2
$1,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
payment standard 110
3
$1,859
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
payment standard 90
3
$1,521
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
safmr
3
$1,690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
payment standard 110
4
$1,947
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
payment standard 90
4
$1,593
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37091
safmr
4
$1,770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.