Reads as: riskier than 20.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.2 vs natl
LEGACY HEALTHCARE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
79 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.2 vs natl
SHABAT MENACHEM
85 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
RAJCHENBACH CHAIM
49 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.20
3.15
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.30
0.46
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.12
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.23
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
54.6
3.20
0.30
0.65
2.24
3.12
0.0%
2025Q3
92
55.3
3.25
0.31
0.65
2.29
3.13
0.0%
2025Q2
91
51.3
3.18
0.20
0.74
2.24
3.07
0.0%
2025Q1
90
52.7
3.45
0.19
0.70
2.56
3.47
0.0%
2024Q4
92
57.6
3.32
0.18
0.65
2.49
3.21
0.0%
2024Q3
92
56.4
3.22
0.19
0.57
2.45
3.07
0.0%
2024Q2
91
51.2
3.33
0.25
0.63
2.45
3.10
0.0%
2024Q1
91
51.6
3.22
0.22
0.64
2.36
3.06
0.0%
2023Q4
92
55.5
2.99
0.24
0.63
2.12
2.84
0.0%
2023Q3
92
53.0
2.98
0.19
0.59
2.20
2.82
0.0%
2023Q2
91
47.6
3.24
0.17
0.70
2.37
3.19
0.0%
2023Q1
90
42.1
3.67
0.22
0.82
2.62
3.61
0.0%
2022Q4
92
37.9
3.97
0.33
0.80
2.84
3.99
0.0%
2022Q3
92
41.2
3.71
0.30
0.84
2.58
3.60
0.0%
2022Q2
91
40.8
3.58
0.24
0.90
2.44
3.41
3.9%
2022Q1
90
41.0
3.47
0.23
0.92
2.32
3.22
12.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
0
No deficiencies on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
61
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BEASLEY, KARLA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BEHOUNEK, LINSEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BORCHERDING, JENNY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BURKEN, SHERI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BUTLER, CATHERINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADE CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADE CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
CCG GORGONA LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
FRIEDENBERG, LAURA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
FRIEDMAN, BRIAN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2012-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
GORGONA HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
GORGONA PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
GORGONA SUB HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
HEDBERG, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
HEYING, LARINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
HOUSTON, MINDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
JAEGER, KRYSTLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, RACHEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
LARSON, MELISSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
LEGACY HEALTHCARE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
MCCLURE, DOROTHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JAIME
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
MN8 RH HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
OTTERBECK, PATRICIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
RAJCHENBACH, AVRUM
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2008-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
RAJCHENBACH, CHAIM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
RAJCHENBACH, RIVKA
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2008-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
SHABAT, AHUVA
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2012-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
SHABAT, MENACHEM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
SHEAR, KILEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
VAN VEGHEL, ELIZABETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
WIERSCHEM, BOBBIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
IOWA PORTFOLIO OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
46%
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GPN FAM TR UA 04282008
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
46%
2024-08-15
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
OAKWAY OPERATIONS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOROS GENERATION TRUST U/A/D 1/3/12
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AHUVA SHABAT
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2012-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVRUM RAJCHENBACH
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2008-04-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BOBBIE WIERSCHEM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN FRIEDMAN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2012-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CATHERINE BUTLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAIM RAJCHENBACH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOROTHY MCCLURE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH VAN VEGHEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAIME MITCHELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER HEDBERG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNY BORCHERDING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARLA BEASLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KILEY SHEAR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRYSTLE JAEGER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARINA HEYING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA FRIEDENBERG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINSEY BEHOUNEK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA LARSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MENACHEM SHABAT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MINDY HOUSTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA OTTERBECK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RACHEL JOHNSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RIVKA RAJCHENBACH
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2008-04-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERI BURKEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$94,269
—
—
—
—
1
—
2024-08-14
$326,690
—
$214,928
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$463,598
—
$323,233
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$416,870
—
$299,052
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$456,649
—
$308,456
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$449,595
—
$298,972
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
29
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 19081
fmr
0
$682
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19081
acs median gross
1
$655
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19081
fmr
1
$745
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19081
acs median gross
2
$750
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19081
fmr
2
$919
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19081
acs median gross
3
$828
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19081
fmr
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19081
acs median gross
4
$1,056
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19081
fmr
4
$1,542
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19081
acs median gross
$736
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19081
acs recent mover gross
$458
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50423
acs median gross
1
$625
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50423
acs median gross
3
$619
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50423
acs median gross
$773
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 50423
payment standard 110
0
$979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
payment standard 90
0
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
safmr
0
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
payment standard 110
1
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
payment standard 90
1
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
safmr
1
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
payment standard 110
2
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
payment standard 90
2
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
safmr
2
$1,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
payment standard 110
3
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
payment standard 90
3
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
safmr
3
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
payment standard 110
4
$2,211
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
payment standard 90
4
$1,809
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50423
safmr
4
$2,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.