Composite
85.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 86.8 | 73.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.03 | in index |
| billing conduct | 59.7 | 43.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.78 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 50.3 | 39.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.61 | in index |
| chow risk | 82.2 | 33.5 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 9.48 | in index |
| staffing risk | 43.0 | 43.1 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 8.27 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 43.4 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 33.5 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| financial risk | 73.7 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 3.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 39.5 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 43.1 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 68.8 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 72.5 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 39.3 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 39.3 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 43.1 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 43.1 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Occupancy | 0.90 | -0.58 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.83 | +0.20 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.18 | +0.18 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.90 | -0.63 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.83 | -0.45 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.38 | +0.15 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | VA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.40 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.11 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.32 | 2.96 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.43 | 3.20 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 104.3 | 3.40 | 0.11 | 1.07 | 2.22 | 3.32 | 18.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 108.5 | 3.25 | 0.12 | 0.99 | 2.14 | 3.20 | 16.8% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 108.3 | 3.30 | 0.26 | 0.88 | 2.16 | 3.32 | 14.5% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 110.1 | 3.13 | 0.20 | 0.89 | 2.05 | 3.11 | 19.4% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 106.8 | 3.02 | 0.16 | 0.90 | 1.96 | 2.97 | 16.2% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 95.7 | 3.01 | 0.10 | 0.93 | 1.97 | 2.97 | 9.4% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 84.7 | 3.29 | 0.10 | 1.08 | 2.11 | 3.28 | 3.2% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 89.0 | 3.57 | 0.13 | 1.22 | 2.21 | 3.54 | 19.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 84.8 | 2.69 | 0.18 | 1.00 | 1.51 | 2.69 | 12.8% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 84.5 | 3.53 | 0.15 | 1.22 | 2.17 | 3.46 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 80.3 | 3.89 | 0.06 | 1.56 | 2.27 | 3.77 | 8.3% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 80.8 | 3.94 | 0.07 | 1.54 | 2.34 | 3.78 | 8.3% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 81.3 | 5.03 | 0.23 | 1.60 | 3.20 | 4.53 | 20.8% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 79.2 | 4.36 | 0.24 | 1.38 | 2.73 | 4.08 | 6.9% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 71.2 | 4.60 | 0.26 | 1.33 | 3.01 | 4.24 | 0.9% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 63.1 | 3.95 | 0.13 | 1.44 | 2.38 | 3.75 | 1.9% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0660 | Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs. | D | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0770 | Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents. | D | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0800 | Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs. | E | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | E | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0809 | Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times. | E | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | E | 2025-03-25 |
| 2025-02-18 | Health · complaint | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | E | 2025-03-25 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health · complaint | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | D | 2024-12-12 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health · complaint | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | D | 2024-12-12 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-12-12 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health · complaint | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2024-12-12 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health · complaint | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2024-12-12 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-12-12 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health · complaint | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | E | 2024-12-12 |
| 2024-02-14 | Health | F0567 | Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs. | D | 2024-04-18 |
| 2024-02-14 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2024-04-18 |
| 2024-02-14 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | D | 2024-04-18 |
| 2024-02-14 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-04-18 |
| 2024-02-14 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-04-18 |
| 2024-02-14 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2024-04-18 |
| 2024-02-14 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2024-04-18 |
| 2024-02-14 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-04-18 |
| 2024-02-14 | Health | F0887 | Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status. | E | 2024-04-18 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA SNF OPERATIONS HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2023-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LYAM FAMILY TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2023-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| 1047 MECCA STREET ROANOKE PROPCO LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2024-04-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| SHAPIRO, AKIVA | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VANHOUSEN, SUSAN | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2023-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| YDI IRREVOCABLE TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2023-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SUSAN VANHOUSEN | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 0% | 2023-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AKIVA SHAPIRO | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | Woodstock Valley Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 88 | 803 SOUTH MAIN STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Jamestown Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 1811 JAMESTOWN ROAD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Windsor Grove Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 114 | 23352 COURTHOUSE HIGHWAY OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Grayson Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 120 | 400 SOUTH INDEPENDENCE AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | SKYLINE NURSING & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 90 | 237 FRANKLIN PIKE ROAD SE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | KINGS DAUGHTERS COMMUNITY HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 117 | 1410 NORTH AUGUSTA STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Ghent Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 222 | 3900 LLEWELLYN AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | ASHLAND NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 190 | 906 THOMPSON STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-19 | The Boulevard Post Acute | — | — | — | 81 | BOULEVARD OPERATOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | FRANCIS MARION MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 109 | FRANCIS MARION OPERATING GROUP LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | POPLAR HILL HEALTH AND REHAB | — | — | — | 113 | FAUQUIER OPCO LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | NORTHERN CARDINAL REHABILITATION AND NURSING | — | — | — | 120 | NORTHERN CARDINAL REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 51770 | acs median gross | 0 | $833 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51770 | fmr | 0 | $1,004 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51770 | acs median gross | 1 | $847 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51770 | fmr | 1 | $1,053 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51770 | acs median gross | 2 | $967 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51770 | fmr | 2 | $1,254 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51770 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,282 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51770 | fmr | 3 | $1,743 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51770 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,484 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51770 | fmr | 4 | $2,104 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51770 | acs median gross | $996 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 51770 | acs recent mover gross | $1,390 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 24012 | acs median gross | 0 | $776 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 24012 | acs median gross | 1 | $916 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 24012 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,087 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 24012 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,386 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 24012 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,438 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 24012 | acs median gross | $1,049 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 24012 | acs recent mover gross | $1,673 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 24012 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,100 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | safmr | 0 | $1,000 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,155 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $945 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | safmr | 1 | $1,050 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,375 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,125 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | safmr | 2 | $1,250 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,914 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,566 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | safmr | 3 | $1,740 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,310 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,890 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24012 | safmr | 4 | $2,100 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |