Reads as: riskier than 74.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.1 vs natl
GENESIS NH HOLDINGS LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.2 vs natl
OJUTALAYO AYOBAMI
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.28
3.28
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.03
0.52
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.14
3.14
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.33
3.32
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
59.4
3.28
1.03
0.56
1.69
3.14
0.6%
2025Q3
92
62.7
3.22
0.95
0.53
1.75
3.13
0.3%
2025Q2
91
62.6
3.30
0.95
0.56
1.78
3.04
0.3%
2025Q1
90
66.0
3.21
0.90
0.61
1.70
3.04
2.9%
2024Q4
92
64.2
3.25
1.05
0.71
1.49
2.87
0.0%
2024Q3
92
62.8
3.33
1.00
0.72
1.61
3.06
3.3%
2024Q2
91
64.1
3.31
1.06
0.73
1.52
2.93
4.2%
2024Q1
91
63.6
3.31
1.11
0.72
1.47
2.99
0.0%
2023Q4
92
62.6
3.27
1.11
0.69
1.48
3.08
0.0%
2023Q3
92
59.9
3.43
1.17
0.67
1.59
3.13
0.0%
2023Q2
91
64.9
3.46
1.00
0.77
1.69
3.10
1.1%
2023Q1
90
65.9
3.29
0.96
0.85
1.48
2.93
2.5%
2022Q4
92
66.3
3.04
0.93
0.77
1.33
2.62
2.3%
2022Q3
92
65.7
2.72
0.56
0.82
1.34
2.55
3.5%
2022Q2
91
66.3
2.99
0.42
1.05
1.52
2.93
0.0%
2022Q1
90
61.9
3.24
0.43
1.08
1.73
3.09
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide doctor's orders for the resident's immediate care at the time the resident was admitted.
G
2025-11-14
2025-12-17
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-02-09
2025-03-13
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2025-04-15
2025-03-13
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
B
2025-04-15
2025-03-13
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-04-22
2025-03-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-04-22
2025-03-13
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
D
2025-04-22
2024-04-02
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-04-29
2024-04-02
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
B
2024-04-29
2024-04-02
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-04-24
2024-04-02
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-04-19
2024-01-09
Health · complaint
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
B
2024-02-02
2023-03-10
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2023-04-07
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
32
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
191 HACKETT HILL ROAD OPERATIONS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2014-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BERG, MICHAEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRIDGEFORD, LAURA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
CULLEROT, ELIZABETH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-09
current
pecos_ownership
CULLEROT, ELIZABETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEN OPERATIONS I LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2012-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEN OPERATIONS II LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2012-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
GENESIS HEALTHCARE INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-03-02
current
pecos_ownership
GENESIS HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2012-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
GENESIS HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-03-02
current
pecos_ownership
GENESIS NH HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2014-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
GENESIS OPERATIONS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2014-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MENDELSON, AVI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
OJUTALAYO, AYOBAMI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
OJUTALAYO, AYOBAMI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-09
current
pecos_ownership
SUN HEALTHCARE GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-03-02
current
pecos_ownership
WHITMAN, ARNOLD
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2012-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
FC-GEN OPERATIONS INVESTMENT LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2012-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GHC HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2012-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUNDANCE REHABILITATION HOLDCO INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-03-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARNOLD WHITMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2012-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2012-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZAC PROPERTIES XI LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
12%
2012-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN FISHMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2012-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER OP, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVI MENDELSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA BRIDGEFORD
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL BERG
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2012-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AYOBAMI OJUTALAYO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AYOBAMI OJUTALAYO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH CULLEROT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH CULLEROT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$1,655,036
—
$506,471
$1,027,555
$58,985
5
—
2023-09-30
$1,540,943
—
$521,249
$849,708
$113,653
5
—
2022-09-30
$1,432,129
—
$460,933
$827,561
$112,277
5
—
2021-09-30
$1,243,379
—
$431,734
$727,430
$53,735
5
—
2020-09-30
$846,425
—
$379,261
$410,202
$28,792
9
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
30
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 33011
acs median gross
0
$1,194
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs median gross
1
$1,296
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs median gross
2
$1,722
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs median gross
3
$1,835
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs median gross
4
$2,025
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs median gross
5
$1,566
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs median gross
$1,623
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs recent mover gross
$1,932
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03102
acs median gross
0
$845
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03102
acs median gross
1
$1,285
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03102
acs median gross
2
$1,723
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03102
acs median gross
3
$1,737
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03102
acs median gross
4
$2,500
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03102
acs median gross
$1,626
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03102
acs recent mover gross
$1,943
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 03102
payment standard 110
0
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
payment standard 90
0
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
safmr
0
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
payment standard 110
1
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
payment standard 90
1
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
safmr
1
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
payment standard 110
2
$2,167
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
payment standard 90
2
$1,773
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
safmr
2
$1,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
payment standard 110
3
$2,596
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
payment standard 90
3
$2,124
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
safmr
3
$2,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
payment standard 110
4
$2,871
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
payment standard 90
4
$2,349
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03102
safmr
4
$2,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.