Composite
75.9 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 71.6 | 67.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 16.52 | in index |
| financial risk | 70.5 | 59.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 16.27 | in index |
| staffing risk | 49.6 | 49.6 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 9.54 | in index |
| billing conduct | 41.3 | 36.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 9.53 | in index |
| chow risk | 58.6 | 57.0 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 6.76 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 36.0 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 89.0 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 59.5 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 5.9 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 67.1 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 49.6 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 72.2 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 52.2 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 55.5 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 62.7 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 66.9 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 66.9 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 49.6 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 49.6 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.37 | +0.53 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | -0.15 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 4.37 | -1.34 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.11 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.26 | +0.09 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OH median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.29 | 3.24 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.16 | 3.11 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.34 | 3.29 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 66.9 | 3.29 | 0.39 | 0.86 | 2.03 | 3.16 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 63.3 | 3.18 | 0.31 | 1.00 | 1.88 | 3.06 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 62.0 | 3.13 | 0.20 | 0.98 | 1.95 | 2.99 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 63.8 | 2.92 | 0.17 | 0.95 | 1.80 | 2.80 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 64.2 | 3.03 | 0.16 | 0.94 | 1.93 | 2.82 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 71.1 | 2.85 | 0.19 | 0.76 | 1.90 | 2.60 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 69.7 | 2.71 | 0.11 | 0.86 | 1.75 | 2.57 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 69.5 | 2.83 | 0.10 | 0.91 | 1.82 | 2.61 | 0.1% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 63.5 | 2.75 | 0.07 | 0.73 | 1.95 | 2.64 | 1.3% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 64.1 | 2.89 | 0.18 | 0.80 | 1.91 | 2.72 | 0.6% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 71.4 | 2.75 | 0.14 | 0.87 | 1.73 | 2.67 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 67.4 | 3.01 | 0.12 | 0.92 | 1.96 | 2.86 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 64.9 | 2.94 | 0.23 | 0.83 | 1.87 | 2.69 | 0.9% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 65.5 | 2.74 | 0.11 | 0.88 | 1.75 | 2.69 | 0.3% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 64.0 | 2.74 | 0.18 | 0.82 | 1.74 | 2.59 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 59.9 | 3.04 | 0.16 | 0.90 | 1.97 | 2.90 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-17 | Fine | $27,846 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2026-03-03 |
| 2025-01-23 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-02-11 |
| 2025-01-23 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | G | 2025-02-11 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | F | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | E | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-06-25 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-07-02 |
| 2024-06-25 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-07-02 |
| 2023-12-18 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-01-04 |
| 2023-10-24 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-11-02 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2023-09-06 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2023-09-06 |
| 2023-04-03 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2023-04-25 |
| 2023-04-03 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-04-25 |
| 2023-04-03 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-04-25 |
| 2023-04-03 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2023-04-25 |
| 2023-04-03 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2023-04-25 |
| 2023-04-03 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-04-25 |
| 2023-04-03 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-04-25 |
| 2023-04-03 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-04-25 |
| 2023-04-03 | Health | F0810 | Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance. | D | 2023-04-25 |
| 2023-04-03 | Health | F0885 | Report COVID19 data to residents and families. | F | 2023-04-25 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARK OPCO GROUP, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| B&Y HEALTHCARE S CORP | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| B&Y TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CODY HEALTHCARE S CORP | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CRAIG FLASHNER 2007 TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FLASHNER, CRAIG | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KIRK, KRISTINE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2016-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NOBLE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NORCROSS, ROBERT | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PERLSTEIN, YITZCHOK | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PRESTIGE ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2016-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ROGERS, STACEY | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CRAIG FLASHNER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KRISTINE KIRK | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2016-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERT NORCROSS | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STACEY ROGERS | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| YITZCHOK PERLSTEIN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | SAPPHIRE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | SAPPHIRE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF POINT PLACE | — | — | — | 82 | POINT PLACE OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON | — | — | — | 82 | NEW LEXINGTON OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | ATRIUM OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Inniswood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | FHS INNISWOOD, INC. |
| 2024-12-31 | COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 110 | CS OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF PERRYSBURG | — | — | — | 75 | PERRYSBURG OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | GRAFTON OAKS NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | GO OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF KENT | — | — | — | 74 | KENT OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | Chardon Woods | — | — | — | 161 | CHARDON WOODS OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-12-16 | The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 60 | PAVILION AT CANAL FULTON LLC |
| 2024-12-02 | BENNINGTON GLEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | FHS BENNINGTON INC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 39019 | acs median gross | 0 | $362 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39019 | fmr | 0 | $749 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39019 | acs median gross | 1 | $344 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39019 | fmr | 1 | $846 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39019 | acs median gross | 2 | $810 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39019 | fmr | 2 | $1,086 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39019 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,087 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39019 | fmr | 3 | $1,371 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39019 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,551 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39019 | fmr | 4 | $1,451 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39019 | acs median gross | $863 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 39019 | acs recent mover gross | $1,088 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44657 | acs median gross | 0 | $629 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44657 | acs median gross | 1 | $583 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44657 | acs median gross | 2 | $737 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44657 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,098 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44657 | acs median gross | 4 | $944 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44657 | acs median gross | $905 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44657 | acs recent mover gross | $1,231 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 44657 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $781 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | safmr | 0 | $710 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | safmr | 1 | $800 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,122 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $918 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | safmr | 2 | $1,020 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,419 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,161 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | safmr | 3 | $1,290 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,507 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,233 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44657 | safmr | 4 | $1,370 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |