Reads as: riskier than 50.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.21
3.28
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.39
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.16
3.10
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.23
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
75.0
3.21
0.39
0.77
2.06
3.16
19.9%
2025Q3
92
76.0
3.20
0.40
0.73
2.06
3.10
0.0%
2025Q2
91
76.2
3.16
0.31
0.76
2.10
3.18
19.0%
2025Q1
90
86.2
2.88
0.38
0.61
1.89
2.85
18.0%
2024Q4
92
92.5
2.71
0.26
0.71
1.74
2.64
20.1%
2024Q3
92
79.6
3.08
0.26
0.84
1.98
2.97
16.1%
2024Q2
91
78.1
3.51
0.31
0.93
2.28
3.38
14.4%
2024Q1
91
79.6
3.29
0.36
0.85
2.07
3.19
16.0%
2023Q4
92
76.9
3.31
0.32
0.86
2.12
3.17
14.5%
2023Q3
92
77.5
3.41
0.32
0.85
2.23
3.30
14.9%
2023Q2
91
83.0
3.28
0.37
0.74
2.17
3.12
22.5%
2023Q1
90
83.0
3.20
0.43
0.73
2.04
3.13
23.0%
2022Q4
92
75.8
3.35
0.37
0.81
2.18
3.30
24.7%
2022Q3
92
62.0
3.31
0.31
0.78
2.22
3.21
21.5%
2022Q2
91
63.4
3.24
0.45
0.79
2.00
3.14
15.1%
2022Q1
90
60.7
3.52
0.45
0.96
2.11
3.54
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
11
C × 1D × 9F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-04
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-03-20
2023-11-08
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-12-06
2023-11-08
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-11-26
2023-11-08
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-12-13
2023-11-08
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-12-08
2023-11-08
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-12-04
2023-11-08
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-11-30
2020-01-16
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2020-01-20
2020-01-16
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
C
2020-01-20
2020-01-16
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2020-02-13
2020-01-16
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2020-02-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
37
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BRADLEY, DON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
BURTON, WILLIAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, CLINTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FLOYD, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-21
current
pecos_ownership
HOLCOMBE, MICHELLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KUPCHYNSKY, KATHLEEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAXWELL, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
OCOEE FOUNDATION INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
OCOEE FOUNDATION INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-04-15
current
pecos_ownership
OCOEE SEVERVILLE PROPERTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
OCOEE SEVERVILLE PROPERTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PHILLIPS, DOROTHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
PIONEER CONSULTING LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PIONEER CONSULTING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-03
current
pecos_ownership
SHEEHAN, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHEEHAN, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-04-15
current
pecos_ownership
SHEEHAN, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
SHEEHAN, MARGARET
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, FRANK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-03
current
pecos_ownership
CLINTON DAVIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN SHEEHAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2015-04-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OCOEE SEVERVILLE PROPERTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
OCOEE SEVERVILLE PROPERTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
OCOEE SEVERVILLE PROPERTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
DAVID MAXWELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DON BRADLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-04-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOROTHY PHILLIPS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-04-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANK SMITH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-04-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN SHEEHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN SHEEHAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHLEEN KUPCHYNSKY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARGARET SHEEHAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-04-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL FLOYD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE HOLCOMBE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM BURTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-04-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$909,001
$584,181
$324,820
—
—
3
propco
2023-12-31
$778,431
$495,687
—
—
—
3
propco
2022-12-31
$796,412
$534,215
—
—
—
3
propco
2021-12-31
$811,003
$523,740
—
—
—
3
propco
2020-12-31
$513,000
$513,000
—
—
—
1
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 47155
acs median gross
0
$939
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47155
fmr
0
$883
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47155
acs median gross
1
$892
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47155
fmr
1
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47155
acs median gross
2
$1,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47155
fmr
2
$1,159
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47155
acs median gross
3
$1,220
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47155
fmr
3
$1,522
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47155
acs median gross
4
$1,311
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47155
fmr
4
$1,535
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47155
acs median gross
5
$1,553
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47155
acs median gross
$1,072
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47155
acs recent mover gross
$1,151
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37862
acs median gross
0
$537
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37862
acs median gross
1
$599
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37862
acs median gross
2
$998
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37862
acs median gross
3
$1,298
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37862
acs median gross
4
$1,164
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37862
acs median gross
$1,004
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37862
acs recent mover gross
$964
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 37862
payment standard 110
0
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
payment standard 90
0
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
safmr
0
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
payment standard 110
1
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
payment standard 90
1
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
safmr
1
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
payment standard 110
2
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
payment standard 90
2
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
safmr
2
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
payment standard 110
3
$1,617
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
payment standard 90
3
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
safmr
3
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
payment standard 110
4
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
payment standard 90
4
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37862
safmr
4
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.