Reads as: riskier than 42.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.51
3.28
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.42
0.52
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.27
3.14
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.60
3.32
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
78.9
3.51
0.42
0.98
2.10
3.27
8.7%
2025Q3
92
75.1
3.59
0.32
1.16
2.11
3.35
5.3%
2025Q2
91
68.4
3.77
0.43
1.11
2.22
3.56
8.3%
2025Q1
90
72.7
3.54
0.42
1.02
2.09
3.43
6.0%
2024Q4
92
71.4
3.58
0.59
0.83
2.15
3.46
7.7%
2024Q3
92
72.1
3.53
0.61
0.79
2.13
3.37
6.9%
2024Q2
91
72.0
3.42
0.59
0.74
2.08
3.36
10.3%
2024Q1
91
72.9
3.72
0.76
0.81
2.15
3.52
19.3%
2023Q4
92
75.9
3.50
0.41
0.95
2.14
3.38
16.7%
2023Q3
92
78.1
3.45
0.43
1.07
1.95
3.21
20.2%
2023Q2
91
72.6
3.31
0.55
0.92
1.85
2.94
32.0%
2023Q1
90
71.5
4.51
0.99
1.33
2.19
3.11
23.2%
2022Q4
92
71.7
4.76
0.58
1.72
2.46
2.94
31.3%
2022Q3
92
71.3
3.34
0.27
1.12
1.95
3.12
43.8%
2022Q2
91
73.3
3.13
0.18
1.19
1.76
2.99
58.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
8
B × 1D × 6F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-07-24
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2025-08-13
2025-07-24
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-08-13
2024-05-14
Health
F0553
Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care.
B
2024-06-13
2024-05-14
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2024-06-06
2024-05-14
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-06-12
2024-05-14
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2024-06-11
2024-05-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-06-11
2023-03-30
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2023-04-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
27
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
RICHARD COURVILLE 1999 REVOCABLE TRUST, AS AMENDED
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-08-17
current
pecos_ownership
TCN REALTY LP
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
TCN REALTY LP
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
COURVILLE, ADAM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2024-08-17
current
pecos_ownership
COURVILLE, MICHAEL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2024-08-17
current
pecos_ownership
COURVILLE, RYAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2024-08-17
current
pecos_ownership
AUJLA, JATINDER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-11-05
current
pecos_ownership
COURVILLE, RYAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-08-19
current
pecos_ownership
COURVILLE, RYAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-28
current
pecos_ownership
DIDOMENICO, PAULETTE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
EKBERG, JEFFREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-27
current
pecos_ownership
EKBERG, JEFFREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-29
current
pecos_ownership
TCN REALTY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-29
current
pecos_ownership
THE COURVILLE COMPANY INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-21
current
pecos_ownership
THE COURVILLE COMPANY INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
RYAN COURVILLE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2024-08-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RYAN COURVILLE
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2019-07-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADAM COURVILLE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2024-08-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL COURVILLE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2024-08-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RYAN COURVILLE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2024-08-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JATINDER AUJLA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-11-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY EKBERG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY EKBERG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAULETTE DIDOMENICO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TCN REALTY LP
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TCN REALTY LP
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TCN REALTY LP
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,176,715
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2023-12-31
$1,285,044
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2022-12-31
$1,281,972
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2021-12-31
$1,062,110
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2020-12-31
$1,050,677
—
—
—
—
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 33011
acs median gross
0
$1,194
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs median gross
1
$1,296
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs median gross
2
$1,722
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs median gross
3
$1,835
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs median gross
4
$2,025
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs median gross
5
$1,566
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs median gross
$1,623
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 33011
acs recent mover gross
$1,932
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03060
acs median gross
0
$1,147
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03060
acs median gross
1
$1,279
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03060
acs median gross
2
$1,663
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03060
acs median gross
3
$1,871
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03060
acs median gross
4
$1,810
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03060
acs median gross
5
$1,243
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03060
acs median gross
$1,597
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 03060
acs recent mover gross
$1,758
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 03060
payment standard 110
0
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
payment standard 90
0
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
safmr
0
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
payment standard 110
1
$1,793
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
payment standard 90
1
$1,467
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
safmr
1
$1,630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
payment standard 110
2
$2,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
payment standard 90
2
$1,863
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
safmr
2
$2,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
payment standard 110
3
$3,025
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
payment standard 90
3
$2,475
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
safmr
3
$2,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
payment standard 110
4
$3,212
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
payment standard 90
4
$2,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 03060
safmr
4
$2,920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.