Composite
41.9 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 67.9 | 46.7 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 20.37 | in index |
| staffing risk | 70.6 | 70.6 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 17.65 | in index |
| financial risk | 16.5 | 24.6 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 4.95 | in index |
| chow risk | 16.6 | 24.2 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 2.49 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 46.7 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 22.4 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 26.1 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 24.6 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 3.9 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| staffing risk | 70.6 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 79.4 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 59.4 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 34.9 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 30.7 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 70.6 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 70.6 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.75 | |
| Chain size (log) | 5.31 | +0.73 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 5.31 | -1.89 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.88 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.11 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | VA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.98 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.24 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.78 | 2.96 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.05 | 3.20 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 112.9 | 2.98 | 0.24 | 1.04 | 1.69 | 2.78 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 112.6 | 2.96 | 0.18 | 1.11 | 1.68 | 2.80 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 111.8 | 2.95 | 0.20 | 1.02 | 1.73 | 2.75 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 109.5 | 2.77 | 0.17 | 1.06 | 1.54 | 2.77 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 111.5 | 2.94 | 0.23 | 0.98 | 1.74 | 2.85 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 110.2 | 3.02 | 0.25 | 0.96 | 1.81 | 2.81 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 111.0 | 3.04 | 0.21 | 1.07 | 1.76 | 2.73 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 111.2 | 2.94 | 0.25 | 0.95 | 1.74 | 2.71 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 108.0 | 3.04 | 0.21 | 1.02 | 1.81 | 2.86 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 105.4 | 3.13 | 0.23 | 1.05 | 1.85 | 2.94 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 95.2 | 3.06 | 0.25 | 1.03 | 1.78 | 2.77 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 96.0 | 2.93 | 0.18 | 1.04 | 1.71 | 2.76 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 91.8 | 3.01 | 0.22 | 1.10 | 1.69 | 2.90 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 96.8 | 2.82 | 0.23 | 1.06 | 1.53 | 2.74 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 93.7 | 2.83 | 0.33 | 0.93 | 1.58 | 2.67 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 94.7 | 2.82 | 0.26 | 0.95 | 1.61 | 2.64 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-12 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2023-08-26 |
| 2023-07-12 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-08-26 |
| 2023-07-12 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2023-08-26 |
| 2023-07-12 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-08-26 |
| 2023-07-12 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2023-08-26 |
| 2023-07-12 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-08-26 |
| 2023-07-12 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-08-26 |
| 2023-07-12 | Health | F0909 | Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame. | D | 2023-08-26 |
| 2022-01-06 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2022-02-18 |
| 2022-01-06 | Health | F0622 | Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged. | D | 2022-02-18 |
| 2022-01-06 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | B | 2022-02-18 |
| 2022-01-06 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2022-02-18 |
| 2022-01-06 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2022-02-18 |
| 2022-01-06 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2022-02-18 |
| 2022-01-06 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2022-02-18 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0622 | Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| 2019-10-24 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2019-11-29 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BREEDEN, JENNIFER | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BREEDEN, JENNIFER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BROCHERO, ALFONSO | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BROCHERO, ALFONSO | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2021-10-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CROSS, CINDY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 1994-04-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FLETCHER, TODD | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2021-05-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HENRY, TERRY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 1999-08-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LAY, LISA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2017-04-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LIFE CARE ASSOCIATES, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| LIFE CARE ASSOCIATES, LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2005-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC. | DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC. | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2006-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC. | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LONAS, MANDY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2019-03-13 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PRESTON, AUBREY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-03-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PRESTON, FORREST | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2005-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PRESTON, FORREST | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| SOLOMON, JENNIFER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2019-05-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SWANKER, RICHARD | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2022-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| THURMOND, JOAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2000-09-22 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ZIEGLER, JAMES | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2006-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FORREST PRESTON | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 98% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ANTHONY COOPER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2017-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CINDY CROSS | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 1994-04-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOAN THURMOND | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2000-09-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | Woodstock Valley Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 88 | 803 SOUTH MAIN STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Jamestown Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 1811 JAMESTOWN ROAD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Windsor Grove Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 114 | 23352 COURTHOUSE HIGHWAY OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Grayson Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 120 | 400 SOUTH INDEPENDENCE AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | SKYLINE NURSING & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 90 | 237 FRANKLIN PIKE ROAD SE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | KINGS DAUGHTERS COMMUNITY HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 117 | 1410 NORTH AUGUSTA STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Ghent Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 222 | 3900 LLEWELLYN AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | ASHLAND NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 190 | 906 THOMPSON STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-19 | The Boulevard Post Acute | — | — | — | 81 | BOULEVARD OPERATOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | FRANCIS MARION MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 109 | FRANCIS MARION OPERATING GROUP LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | POPLAR HILL HEALTH AND REHAB | — | — | — | 113 | FAUQUIER OPCO LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | NORTHERN CARDINAL REHABILITATION AND NURSING | — | — | — | 120 | NORTHERN CARDINAL REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 51171 | fmr | 0 | $849 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51171 | acs median gross | 1 | $779 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51171 | fmr | 1 | $855 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51171 | acs median gross | 2 | $963 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51171 | fmr | 2 | $1,091 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51171 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,148 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51171 | fmr | 3 | $1,394 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51171 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,794 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51171 | fmr | 4 | $1,523 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51171 | acs median gross | 5 | $948 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51171 | acs median gross | $984 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 51171 | acs recent mover gross | $1,068 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 22844 | acs median gross | 1 | $708 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 22844 | acs median gross | 2 | $986 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 22844 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,134 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 22844 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,664 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 22844 | acs median gross | $946 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 22844 | acs recent mover gross | $1,208 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 22844 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,078 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $882 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | safmr | 0 | $980 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,078 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $882 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | safmr | 1 | $980 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,386 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,134 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | safmr | 2 | $1,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,530 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | safmr | 3 | $1,700 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,299 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,881 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 22844 | safmr | 4 | $2,090 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |