Composite
96.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 98.3 | 91.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 22.68 | in index |
| staffing risk | 90.1 | 90.1 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 17.33 | in index |
| billing conduct | 66.2 | 45.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.28 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 54.0 | 43.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.46 | in index |
| chow risk | 46.7 | 52.0 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.39 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 45.9 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 23.8 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 80.1 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 91.8 | F | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 43.8 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 90.1 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 41.5 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 21.5 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 75.8 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 90.3 | F | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 43.7 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 43.7 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 90.1 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 90.1 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.74 | -1.58 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.34 | +0.43 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 12.00 | +0.12 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.53 | +0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 12.00 | -0.80 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.34 | +0.29 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.53 | +0.29 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.74 | -0.26 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | +0.23 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OH median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.53 | 3.24 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.26 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.30 | 3.11 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.62 | 3.29 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 69.6 | 2.53 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 2.02 | 2.30 | 34.3% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 70.1 | 2.70 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 2.01 | 2.57 | 28.2% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 69.3 | 2.55 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 2.02 | 2.38 | 33.4% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 74.4 | 2.67 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 2.08 | 2.59 | 26.2% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 78.4 | 2.94 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 2.47 | 2.85 | 17.7% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 82.5 | 3.15 | 0.19 | 0.35 | 2.61 | 2.93 | 22.7% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 73.6 | 3.69 | 0.24 | 0.62 | 2.83 | 3.44 | 29.8% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 71.8 | 3.68 | 0.20 | 0.69 | 2.78 | 3.30 | 28.5% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 66.3 | 3.92 | 0.17 | 0.89 | 2.86 | 3.51 | 22.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 61.4 | 4.23 | 0.20 | 1.22 | 2.81 | 3.81 | 20.1% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 56.9 | 4.19 | 0.08 | 1.26 | 2.85 | 3.98 | 34.4% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 54.0 | 4.50 | 0.42 | 1.14 | 2.94 | 4.20 | 38.3% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 54.4 | 4.52 | 0.75 | 0.93 | 2.84 | 4.19 | 33.8% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 52.8 | 4.63 | 0.81 | 1.04 | 2.78 | 4.45 | 30.4% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 45.9 | 5.07 | 0.73 | 1.31 | 3.04 | 4.82 | 41.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 47.1 | 4.70 | 0.71 | 1.20 | 2.79 | 4.40 | 36.2% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2026-04-23 |
| 2026-04-13 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2026-04-23 |
| 2026-04-13 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2026-04-23 |
| 2026-04-13 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2026-04-23 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2026-03-16 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | G | 2026-03-16 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health · complaint | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | F | 2026-03-16 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health · complaint | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | F | 2026-03-16 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-03-16 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2026-03-16 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2026-03-26 |
| 2026-02-23 | Health · complaint | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | F | 2026-03-16 |
| 2025-01-27 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2025-02-13 |
| 2025-01-27 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-02-13 |
| 2025-01-27 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-02-13 |
| 2025-01-27 | Health · complaint | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2025-02-13 |
| 2024-11-18 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-12-10 |
| 2024-09-30 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-10-15 |
| 2024-09-30 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-10-15 |
| 2024-09-30 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-10-15 |
| 2024-05-16 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-06-05 |
| 2024-05-16 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-06-05 |
| 2024-05-16 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-06-05 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-03-20 |
| 2024-02-02 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-03-20 |
| 2024-02-02 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2024-03-20 |
| 2024-02-02 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2024-03-20 |
| 2024-02-02 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-03-20 |
| 2024-02-02 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-03-20 |
| 2024-02-02 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-03-20 |
| 2024-02-02 | Health | F0685 | Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services. | D | 2024-03-20 |
| 2024-02-02 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-03-20 |
| 2024-02-02 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-03-20 |
| 2024-02-02 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-03-20 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARECORE HEALTH LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-10-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FASTEN HALBERSTAM LLP | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-10-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GENNANTONIO, MARGRETTA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HERTANU, CHAIM | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-10-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HERTANU, CHAIM | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MARGARET HALL PROPCO | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| MARGARET HALL PROPCO | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| MARGARET HALL REALTY, LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-10-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MOBLEY, MICHAEL | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CHAIM HERTANU | DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2023-10-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CHAIM HERTANU | CORPORATE OFFICER | 100% | 2023-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARGRETTA GENNANTONIO | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MICHAEL MOBLEY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-31 | — | CARECORE AT MARGARET HALL LLC | ST. MARGARET HALL | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | SAPPHIRE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | SAPPHIRE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF POINT PLACE | — | — | — | 82 | POINT PLACE OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON | — | — | — | 82 | NEW LEXINGTON OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | ATRIUM OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Inniswood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | FHS INNISWOOD, INC. |
| 2024-12-31 | COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 110 | CS OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF PERRYSBURG | — | — | — | 75 | PERRYSBURG OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | GRAFTON OAKS NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | GO OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF KENT | — | — | — | 74 | KENT OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | Chardon Woods | — | — | — | 161 | CHARDON WOODS OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-12-16 | The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 60 | PAVILION AT CANAL FULTON LLC |
| 2024-12-02 | BENNINGTON GLEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | FHS BENNINGTON INC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 39061 | acs median gross | 0 | $888 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39061 | fmr | 0 | $958 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39061 | acs median gross | 1 | $885 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39061 | fmr | 1 | $1,051 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39061 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,136 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39061 | fmr | 2 | $1,353 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39061 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,432 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39061 | fmr | 3 | $1,785 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39061 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,645 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39061 | fmr | 4 | $1,976 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39061 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,941 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39061 | acs median gross | $1,075 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 39061 | acs recent mover gross | $1,331 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 45206 | acs median gross | 0 | $582 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 45206 | acs median gross | 1 | $718 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 45206 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,220 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 45206 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,505 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 45206 | acs median gross | $933 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 45206 | acs recent mover gross | $1,701 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 45206 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $946 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $774 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | safmr | 0 | $860 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,045 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $855 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | safmr | 1 | $950 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,342 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,098 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | safmr | 2 | $1,220 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,771 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,449 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | safmr | 3 | $1,610 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,958 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,602 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 45206 | safmr | 4 | $1,780 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |