801 NORTH WASHINGTON, WEATHERFORD, OK 73096 · CCN 375530 · chain TWOMAGNETS LLC
Composite
51.2 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
81
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 51.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.6 vs natl
AARON MICHAEL
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
WILLIG ZACHARY
82 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
AEGIS THERAPIES INC
32 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
WILLIG ZACHARY
81 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
TWOMAGNETS LLC
45 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
89% fined
AARON MICHAEL
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
48% fined
WILLIG ZACHARY
82 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
13
2025Q2 HPRD
This facility
OK median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.70
2.78
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.02
0.18
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.52
2.72
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.77
2.80
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q2
91
64.8
2.70
0.02
0.60
2.08
2.52
1.0%
2025Q1
90
66.8
2.39
0.03
0.59
1.77
2.25
7.9%
2024Q4
92
62.8
2.60
0.03
0.62
1.95
2.51
0.0%
2024Q3
92
64.8
2.70
0.02
0.67
2.01
2.47
0.0%
2024Q2
91
67.3
2.52
0.02
0.63
1.87
2.35
0.0%
2024Q1
91
63.5
2.60
0.03
0.70
1.87
2.46
0.0%
2023Q4
92
66.9
2.24
0.12
0.50
1.62
2.08
0.0%
2023Q3
92
67.3
2.16
0.16
0.45
1.54
1.98
0.1%
2023Q2
91
63.6
2.45
0.24
0.51
1.71
2.24
0.0%
2023Q1
90
62.5
2.49
0.13
0.69
1.67
2.19
0.0%
2022Q4
92
65.0
2.31
0.15
0.55
1.61
1.96
0.0%
2022Q2
91
63.4
2.25
0.35
0.38
1.52
1.96
16.6%
2022Q1
90
64.1
1.77
0.10
0.45
1.23
1.65
5.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-06-10
2025-01-23
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2025-02-24
2025-01-23
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2025-02-24
2025-01-23
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2025-02-24
2025-01-23
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
E
2025-02-24
2025-01-23
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-02-24
2024-10-11
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-11-04
2023-11-01
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2023-12-26
2023-11-01
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-12-26
2022-06-24
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2022-08-08
2022-06-24
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
E
2022-08-08
2022-06-24
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2022-08-08
2022-06-24
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2022-08-08
2022-06-24
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
H
2022-08-08
2022-06-24
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2022-08-08
2022-06-24
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2022-08-08
2022-06-24
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2022-08-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
38
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AARON, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
AARON, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-12
current
pecos_ownership
AEGIS THERAPIES, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-10-22
current
pecos_ownership
AEGIS THERAPIES, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
BARTEL, HOWARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
CITIZENS BANK OF OKLAHOMA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
CITIZENS BANK OF OKLAHOMA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2002-01-17
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
GOSSEN, BART
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEGACY BANK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEGACY BANK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN, MELISSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ONSHIFT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
ONSHIFT INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
PETERS, JONATHAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
RAJI, SHERIFFDEEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
REDCAY, CLAIR
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-09-27
current
pecos_ownership
RILEY, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RUSSELL, MARCI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAWATZKY, JOSH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TWOMAGNETS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
TWOMAGNETS LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
WALDROP, DIANNA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, ZACHARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BART GOSSEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLAIR REDCAY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-09-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIANNA WALDROP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HOWARD BARTEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER RILEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN PETERS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSH SAWATZKY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARCI RUSSELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA MORGAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL AARON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL AARON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERIFFDEEN RAJI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZACHARY WILLIAMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 40039
acs median gross
0
$389
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40039
fmr
0
$646
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40039
acs median gross
1
$653
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40039
fmr
1
$732
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40039
acs median gross
2
$795
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40039
fmr
2
$937
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40039
acs median gross
3
$1,053
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40039
fmr
3
$1,303
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40039
acs median gross
4
$1,266
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40039
fmr
4
$1,572
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40039
acs median gross
5
$1,396
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40039
acs median gross
$824
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40039
acs recent mover gross
$879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73096
acs median gross
0
$387
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73096
acs median gross
1
$648
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73096
acs median gross
2
$779
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73096
acs median gross
3
$1,183
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73096
acs median gross
4
$1,369
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73096
acs median gross
$808
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73096
acs recent mover gross
$916
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 73096
payment standard 110
0
$715
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
payment standard 90
0
$585
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
safmr
0
$650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
payment standard 110
1
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
payment standard 90
1
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
safmr
1
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
payment standard 110
2
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
payment standard 90
2
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
safmr
2
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
payment standard 110
3
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
payment standard 90
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
safmr
3
$1,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
payment standard 110
4
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
payment standard 90
4
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73096
safmr
4
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.