115 10TH AVENUE NORTHEAST, DEER RIVER, MN 56636 · CCN 245428 · chain ESSENTIA HEALTH
Composite
37.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
32
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 37.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.94
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.08
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.76
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.01
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
20.7
3.94
1.08
0.63
2.22
3.76
0.0%
2025Q3
92
21.8
4.29
0.99
0.55
2.74
3.82
0.0%
2025Q2
91
22.0
4.28
0.85
0.74
2.69
4.00
13.3%
2025Q1
90
20.4
4.91
1.07
0.63
3.21
4.64
31.7%
2024Q4
92
19.8
3.93
1.05
0.74
2.14
3.44
14.7%
2024Q3
92
21.1
0.18
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.19
0.0%
2024Q2
91
21.0
3.40
0.64
0.70
2.06
3.26
0.0%
2024Q1
91
20.7
3.38
0.58
0.70
2.10
3.09
0.0%
2023Q4
92
19.5
3.59
0.90
0.57
2.11
3.52
0.0%
2023Q3
92
18.1
3.85
0.94
0.67
2.23
3.60
0.7%
2023Q2
91
17.8
3.82
1.13
0.70
1.98
3.69
9.0%
2023Q1
90
16.0
4.27
1.29
0.75
2.23
4.31
14.8%
2022Q4
92
17.0
3.64
1.32
0.66
1.66
3.21
2.7%
2022Q3
92
19.4
2.79
1.27
0.43
1.09
2.56
0.0%
2022Q2
91
20.9
3.35
1.51
0.48
1.36
2.82
6.2%
2022Q1
90
19.3
4.04
1.84
0.47
1.73
3.60
9.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-05-08
2026-03-31
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2026-03-22
2025-12-17
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2026-01-16
2025-12-17
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-01-16
2025-12-17
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
K
2026-01-16
2025-07-30
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
C
2025-08-25
2025-07-30
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-08-25
2025-03-12
Health
F0576
Ensure residents have reasonable access to and privacy in their use of communication methods.
F
2025-03-25
2025-03-12
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2025-03-25
2025-03-12
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2025-03-28
2025-03-12
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-03-28
2025-03-12
Health
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
F
2025-03-28
2024-05-16
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-06-07
2024-05-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-06-07
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
36
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ESSENTIA HEALTH
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARONSON NORR, NANCY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BACHAND, ADAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BERGSTROM, AMY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOREN, KEVIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
DUININCK, TROY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ESSENTIA HEALTH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-12
current
pecos_ownership
JAMAR, THOMAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LOBAN, GEORGE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LUND, JARED
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEYER, DEBORAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-22
current
pecos_ownership
SERTICH, ANTHONY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SKORUPA, KRISTA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-05-06
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, BRUCE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ST MARYS DULUTH CLINIC HEALTH SYSTEM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-12
current
pecos_ownership
ST MARYS DULUTH CLINIC HEALTH SYSTEM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
TERCH, JUSTIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-10-22
current
pecos_ownership
URBANSKI, REBECCA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WATTERS, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
YUNG, ANTHONY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY SERTICH
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JARED LUND
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN BOREN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADAM BACHAND
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMY BERGSTROM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY YUNG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRUCE SMITH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2026-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH MEYER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE LOBAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUSTIN TERCH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-10-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTA SKORUPA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-05-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL WATTERS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NANCY ARONSON NORR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REBECCA URBANSKI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS JAMAR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TROY DUININCK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27061
acs median gross
0
$677
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
fmr
0
$754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27061
acs median gross
1
$757
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
fmr
1
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27061
acs median gross
2
$1,038
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
fmr
2
$1,074
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27061
acs median gross
3
$1,275
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
fmr
3
$1,401
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27061
acs median gross
4
$1,396
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
fmr
4
$1,516
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27061
acs median gross
5
$1,347
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
acs median gross
$988
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
acs recent mover gross
$1,052
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56636
acs median gross
1
$656
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56636
acs median gross
2
$815
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56636
acs median gross
3
$817
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56636
acs median gross
4
$975
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56636
acs median gross
$820
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56636
acs recent mover gross
$860
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 56636
payment standard 110
0
$759
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
payment standard 90
0
$621
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
safmr
0
$690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
payment standard 110
1
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
payment standard 90
1
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
safmr
1
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
payment standard 110
3
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
payment standard 90
3
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
safmr
3
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
payment standard 110
4
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
payment standard 90
4
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56636
safmr
4
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.