Reads as: riskier than 82.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
BLACKROCK INC
303 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
VANGUARD GROUP INC
324 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MORGAN STANLEY
39 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
46 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.15
3.28
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.27
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.20
3.10
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.13
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
61.7
3.15
0.27
0.75
2.13
3.20
0.0%
2025Q3
92
60.0
3.41
0.23
0.90
2.28
3.38
0.0%
2025Q2
91
61.6
3.13
0.22
0.80
2.11
3.06
0.0%
2025Q1
90
59.4
3.24
0.18
0.86
2.20
3.17
0.0%
2024Q4
92
62.6
3.11
0.23
0.84
2.03
3.10
0.0%
2024Q3
92
54.2
3.48
0.39
0.78
2.31
3.37
2.4%
2024Q2
91
52.0
3.85
0.39
0.97
2.48
3.69
7.1%
2024Q1
91
56.2
3.65
0.48
0.78
2.39
3.57
18.6%
2023Q4
92
49.5
3.57
0.50
0.73
2.34
3.50
21.9%
2023Q3
92
47.1
3.39
0.52
0.71
2.16
3.33
21.7%
2023Q2
91
44.3
3.27
0.64
0.69
1.94
3.25
23.1%
2023Q1
90
42.7
3.46
0.78
0.61
2.07
3.33
23.2%
2022Q4
92
41.5
3.38
0.59
0.73
2.05
3.24
24.3%
2022Q3
92
56.4
3.02
0.53
0.58
1.92
2.91
36.0%
2022Q2
91
61.1
2.96
0.42
0.48
2.05
2.72
56.1%
2022Q1
90
61.1
3.14
0.48
0.58
2.07
2.94
60.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-03-27
2025-03-13
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-03-27
2025-03-13
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-03-27
2025-03-13
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-03-27
2025-03-13
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2025-03-27
2025-03-13
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
D
2025-03-27
2025-03-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-03-27
2025-03-13
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2025-03-27
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-11-10
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-11-10
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-11-10
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
D
2023-11-10
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2023-11-10
2022-06-22
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2022-08-05
2022-06-22
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2022-08-05
2022-06-22
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2022-08-05
2022-06-22
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2022-08-05
2022-06-22
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-08-05
2022-06-22
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2022-08-05
2022-06-22
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-08-05
2022-06-22
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2022-08-05
2022-06-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-08-05
2019-10-09
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2019-10-31
2019-10-09
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2019-10-31
2019-10-09
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
E
2019-10-31
2019-10-09
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-10-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
27
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BLACKROCK INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
DODSON, VICKI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOYNER, JESICA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIDD, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-31
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
NHC-OP LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
NHC/DELAWARE INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHELLY, TIMOTHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
TEMPEST, TYLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-07
current
pecos_ownership
TEMPEST, TYLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-22
current
pecos_ownership
USSERY, ROBERT
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-07
current
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
VINCENT, BRANDON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-19
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-11-28
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2023-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRANDON VINCENT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN KIDD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESICA JOYNER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN WILLIAMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY SHELLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TYLER TEMPEST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TYLER TEMPEST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICKI DODSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$666,144
—
$400,324
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$248,964
—
$101,990
—
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 47037
acs median gross
0
$1,414
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
fmr
0
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47037
acs median gross
1
$1,421
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
fmr
1
$1,578
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47037
acs median gross
2
$1,562
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
fmr
2
$1,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47037
acs median gross
3
$1,938
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
fmr
3
$2,211
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47037
acs median gross
4
$2,183
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
fmr
4
$2,696
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47037
acs median gross
5
$2,135
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
acs median gross
$1,582
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
acs recent mover gross
$1,787
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37214
acs median gross
1
$1,498
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37214
acs median gross
2
$1,700
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37214
acs median gross
3
$2,074
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37214
acs median gross
4
$2,101
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37214
acs median gross
$1,684
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37214
acs recent mover gross
$1,888
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 37214
payment standard 110
0
$1,914
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
payment standard 90
0
$1,566
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
safmr
0
$1,740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
payment standard 110
1
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
payment standard 90
1
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
safmr
1
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
payment standard 110
2
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
payment standard 90
2
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
safmr
2
$2,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
payment standard 110
3
$2,816
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
payment standard 90
3
$2,304
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
safmr
3
$2,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
payment standard 110
4
$3,432
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
payment standard 90
4
$2,808
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37214
safmr
4
$3,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.