Reads as: riskier than 24.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
LTC CONSULTING SERVICES LLC
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
STALEY THOMAS
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.75
3.15
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.44
0.46
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.63
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.79
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
73.9
3.75
0.44
0.67
2.64
3.63
7.8%
2025Q3
92
73.6
3.52
0.41
0.64
2.47
3.38
0.1%
2025Q2
91
73.0
3.61
0.41
0.72
2.48
3.50
1.9%
2025Q1
90
70.0
3.53
0.53
0.60
2.41
3.40
1.9%
2024Q4
92
69.8
3.58
0.58
0.49
2.51
3.47
14.2%
2024Q3
92
64.9
4.03
0.48
0.72
2.83
3.83
6.3%
2024Q2
91
66.5
4.03
0.29
0.88
2.86
3.83
3.0%
2024Q1
91
66.0
4.17
0.27
1.00
2.91
4.04
7.9%
2023Q4
92
67.7
2.67
0.20
0.64
1.83
2.66
3.0%
2023Q3
92
69.9
3.82
0.35
0.97
2.50
3.68
5.1%
2023Q2
91
67.4
3.92
0.38
0.97
2.58
3.77
10.8%
2023Q1
90
67.6
3.86
0.46
0.88
2.52
3.82
11.4%
2022Q4
92
66.4
3.57
0.55
0.83
2.19
3.52
4.1%
2022Q3
92
59.7
4.03
0.57
0.74
2.72
3.90
12.0%
2022Q2
91
59.8
3.82
0.57
0.67
2.58
3.55
4.7%
2022Q1
90
58.5
4.08
0.54
0.72
2.82
3.84
11.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
13
D × 12E × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-10-23
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-12-12
2025-10-23
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-12-12
2025-08-14
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-09-05
2025-08-14
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-09-05
2025-08-14
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-09-05
2025-08-14
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2025-09-05
2024-08-29
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-09-12
2024-01-04
Health
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2024-01-29
2024-01-04
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-01-29
2024-01-04
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-01-29
2024-01-04
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-01-29
2024-01-04
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-01-29
2024-01-04
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-01-29
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
1202 MAQUOKETA PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-05
current
pecos_ownership
HOFFMAN, JESSICA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-03
current
pecos_ownership
LTC CONSULTING SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-05
current
pecos_ownership
MIDWEST SNF HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-05
current
pecos_ownership
PAVEL, ASHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHEINBEIN, JOSHUA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
STALEY, THOMAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STELLAR HEALTHCARE MGMT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-05
current
pecos_ownership
STELLAR HEALTHCARE MGMT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-03
current
pecos_ownership
SVARC, JONAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-05
current
pecos_ownership
TEGELER, TAMI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-05
current
pecos_ownership
YY SEA FAMILY IRREVOCABLE TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-05
current
pecos_ownership
JONAH SVARC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2024-01-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHELDON GOLDBERGER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2024-01-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHLOMO HOFFMAN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2024-01-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TAMI TEGELER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-01-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
1
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,776,354
—
$625,464
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2024-01-05
—
BETTENDORF IA SNF OPCO LLC
BOARD OF TRUSTEES GRAND CHARITY FUNDS IOWA MASONIC NURSING HOME
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 19163
acs median gross
0
$863
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19163
fmr
0
$817
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19163
acs median gross
1
$819
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19163
fmr
1
$928
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19163
acs median gross
2
$1,031
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19163
fmr
2
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19163
acs median gross
3
$1,347
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19163
fmr
3
$1,498
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19163
acs median gross
4
$1,685
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19163
fmr
4
$1,819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19163
acs median gross
5
$1,250
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19163
acs median gross
$1,005
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19163
acs recent mover gross
$1,181
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52722
acs median gross
0
$1,086
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52722
acs median gross
1
$826
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52722
acs median gross
2
$1,121
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52722
acs median gross
3
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52722
acs median gross
4
$2,299
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52722
acs median gross
$1,189
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52722
acs recent mover gross
$1,629
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 52722
payment standard 110
0
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
payment standard 90
0
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
safmr
0
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
payment standard 110
1
$1,221
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
payment standard 90
1
$999
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
safmr
1
$1,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
payment standard 110
2
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
payment standard 90
2
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
safmr
2
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
payment standard 110
3
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
payment standard 90
3
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
safmr
3
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
payment standard 110
4
$2,398
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
payment standard 90
4
$1,962
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52722
safmr
4
$2,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.