Reads as: riskier than 79.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
GANZ DAVID
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.2 vs natl
OELBAUM YITZCHOK
8 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
GANZ DAVID
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
63% fined
OELBAUM YITZCHOK
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
53% fined
GANZ DAVID
15 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OK median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.83
2.78
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.22
0.18
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.84
2.72
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.82
2.80
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
46.9
2.83
0.22
0.86
1.75
2.84
0.0%
2025Q3
92
43.5
2.79
0.19
0.95
1.65
2.87
0.0%
2025Q2
91
42.9
2.95
0.21
1.03
1.70
2.96
3.9%
2025Q1
90
45.3
2.93
0.16
1.02
1.75
3.03
1.7%
2024Q4
92
42.0
3.31
0.19
1.04
2.08
3.37
0.0%
2024Q3
92
41.8
3.36
0.22
1.08
2.07
3.36
0.1%
2024Q2
91
45.9
3.08
0.19
1.11
1.78
2.89
9.7%
2024Q1
91
45.2
3.35
0.23
1.00
2.12
3.28
22.1%
2023Q4
92
43.7
3.02
0.25
1.00
1.77
2.90
16.2%
2023Q3
92
41.4
2.84
0.20
1.03
1.61
2.78
11.3%
2023Q2
91
37.6
3.23
0.27
1.07
1.89
3.00
27.5%
2023Q1
90
39.4
3.23
0.25
1.06
1.92
3.10
24.7%
2022Q4
92
39.9
2.93
0.16
0.92
1.85
2.90
16.0%
2022Q3
92
38.7
3.11
0.19
0.85
2.08
2.97
10.4%
2022Q2
91
33.1
3.88
0.28
0.81
2.79
3.97
19.9%
2022Q1
90
35.8
3.19
0.32
0.67
2.21
3.01
18.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-06
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-06
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-09-30
2025-03-17
Health · complaint
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
J
2025-04-13
2024-07-26
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
E
2024-08-16
2024-04-04
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-06-25
2024-04-04
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2024-06-25
2024-04-04
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
D
2024-06-25
2024-04-04
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2024-07-26
2024-04-04
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
E
2024-06-25
2024-04-04
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2024-06-25
2024-04-04
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2024-06-25
2024-04-04
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2024-06-25
2024-04-04
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2024-06-25
2024-04-04
Health
F0710
Obtain a doctor's order to admit a resident and ensure the resident is under a doctor's care.
D
2024-06-25
2024-04-04
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
E
2024-06-25
2024-04-04
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-07-10
2024-04-04
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-07-26
2024-04-04
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
D
2024-06-25
2024-03-27
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-05-17
2024-01-29
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2024-02-25
2024-01-29
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2024-02-25
2024-01-29
Health · complaint
F0943
Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation.
E
2024-02-25
2023-02-24
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-05-19
2023-02-24
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-05-19
2023-02-24
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-05-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
9
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
RIVERS EDGE OPERATIONS II LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
OELBAUM, YITZCHOK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
GANZ, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MANGANYA, RICHARD
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
RICHARD MANGANYA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID GANZ
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
40%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
S. ARYEH RETTER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YITZCHOK OELBAUM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVROHOM KRAVETZ
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 40143
acs median gross
0
$840
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143
fmr
0
$933
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40143
acs median gross
1
$911
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143
fmr
1
$987
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40143
acs median gross
2
$1,128
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143
fmr
2
$1,217
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40143
acs median gross
3
$1,368
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143
fmr
3
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40143
acs median gross
4
$1,716
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143
fmr
4
$1,858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40143
acs median gross
5
$1,806
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143
acs median gross
$1,110
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143
acs recent mover gross
$1,198
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74021
acs median gross
0
$837
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74021
acs median gross
1
$774
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74021
acs median gross
2
$989
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74021
acs median gross
3
$1,432
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74021
acs median gross
4
$2,118
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74021
acs median gross
$1,217
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74021
acs recent mover gross
$1,517
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 74021
payment standard 110
0
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
payment standard 90
0
$954
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
safmr
0
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
payment standard 110
1
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
payment standard 90
1
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
safmr
1
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
payment standard 110
2
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
payment standard 90
2
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
safmr
2
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
payment standard 110
3
$2,013
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
payment standard 90
3
$1,647
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
safmr
3
$1,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
payment standard 110
4
$2,321
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
payment standard 90
4
$1,899
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74021
safmr
4
$2,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.