1001 ALEX BELL ROAD, CENTERVILLE, OH 45459 · CCN 366100 · chain PACS HOLDINGS LLC
Composite
63.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
129
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 63.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
35 chains
WELLTOWER INC
135 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
33 chains
WELLTOWER OP LLC
147 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MURRAY JASON
40 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
LANDAU FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
J R FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
30 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.14
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.53
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.10
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.16
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
92.4
3.14
0.53
0.86
1.75
3.10
6.0%
2025Q3
92
87.9
3.11
0.37
0.88
1.87
3.02
0.5%
2025Q2
91
94.8
3.02
0.26
1.00
1.76
2.87
9.8%
2025Q1
90
93.8
3.14
0.32
1.07
1.76
2.80
7.0%
2024Q4
92
101.7
2.62
0.23
0.88
1.50
2.50
0.9%
2024Q3
92
109.0
2.50
0.26
0.79
1.46
2.48
0.2%
2024Q2
91
98.4
2.59
0.31
0.80
1.48
2.50
2.5%
2024Q1
91
96.5
2.74
0.30
0.86
1.58
2.71
14.3%
2023Q4
92
91.8
2.69
0.30
0.96
1.43
2.63
13.0%
2023Q3
92
85.4
2.84
0.45
0.94
1.44
2.74
6.5%
2023Q2
91
90.7
3.00
0.38
1.03
1.59
2.87
14.9%
2023Q1
90
93.0
3.04
0.34
1.04
1.66
3.08
27.8%
2022Q4
92
91.9
2.98
0.34
0.94
1.69
3.03
31.1%
2022Q3
92
85.6
2.47
0.39
0.95
1.12
2.50
32.4%
2022Q2
91
80.7
2.28
0.36
0.86
1.06
2.40
39.1%
2022Q1
90
77.3
2.95
0.45
1.02
1.48
3.02
50.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
20
C × 1D × 17E × 1F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-09-19
Health · complaint
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
C
2025-11-14
2025-03-27
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-04-24
2025-03-27
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
E
2025-04-24
2025-03-27
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-04-24
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-04-24
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-04-24
2025-03-27
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-04-24
2025-03-27
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
D
2025-04-24
2024-10-10
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-09-15
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-12-22
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-12-22
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-12-22
2022-06-16
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2022-08-11
2022-06-16
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-08-11
2022-06-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2022-08-11
2019-06-20
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2019-07-08
2019-06-20
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2019-07-08
2019-06-20
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2019-07-08
2019-06-20
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2019-07-08
2019-06-20
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2019-07-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
27
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
1001 E ALEX BELL ROAD OH OWNER LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
APT, FREDERICK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
INTEGRA WIP MEMBER LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
J & R FAMILY INVESTMENTS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
LANDAU FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-05
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
MURRAY, JASON
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
PALMER, GARY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
SNF OH HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
STRUCK, MARIANNE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELL INTEGRA MASTER JV LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELL PM HOLDCO JV LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER OP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY PALMER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIANNE STRUCK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$513,141
—
$513,141
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$366,571
—
$366,571
—
—
1
—
2023-04-30
$339,037
—
$339,037
—
—
2
—
2022-05-31
$366,155
—
$366,155
—
—
2
—
2021-05-31
$410,379
—
$410,379
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39113
acs median gross
0
$728
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
0
$928
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
1
$816
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
1
$1,009
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
2
$1,011
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
2
$1,273
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
3
$1,199
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
3
$1,651
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
4
$1,282
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
4
$1,817
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
5
$1,470
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
acs median gross
$1,026
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
acs recent mover gross
$1,198
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45459
acs median gross
0
$973
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45459
acs median gross
1
$1,122
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45459
acs median gross
2
$1,367
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45459
acs median gross
3
$1,573
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45459
acs median gross
4
$1,784
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45459
acs median gross
$1,276
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45459
acs recent mover gross
$1,650
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 45459
payment standard 110
0
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
payment standard 90
0
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
safmr
0
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
payment standard 110
1
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
payment standard 90
1
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
safmr
1
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
payment standard 110
2
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
payment standard 90
2
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
safmr
2
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
payment standard 110
3
$2,123
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
payment standard 90
3
$1,737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
safmr
3
$1,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
payment standard 110
4
$2,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
payment standard 90
4
$1,917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45459
safmr
4
$2,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.