Reads as: riskier than 83.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
ANDREWS JAMES
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
BAILEY TERESA
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
ELKINS ROAD ASSOCIATES LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
WELLINGTON HEALTHCARE SERVICES LP
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.32
3.28
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.33
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.10
3.10
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.40
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
70.6
3.32
0.33
1.09
1.90
3.10
2.0%
2025Q3
92
62.0
3.46
0.32
1.16
1.97
3.25
8.2%
2025Q2
91
73.8
2.93
0.28
0.90
1.75
2.69
0.0%
2025Q1
90
77.5
2.93
0.27
0.95
1.71
2.67
2.0%
2024Q4
92
67.7
3.29
0.21
1.22
1.87
3.06
0.0%
2024Q3
92
67.9
3.22
0.25
1.14
1.83
3.04
0.0%
2024Q2
91
67.3
3.59
0.26
1.23
2.10
3.18
0.0%
2024Q1
91
67.5
3.26
0.27
1.04
1.95
3.04
0.0%
2023Q4
92
69.0
3.06
0.30
0.93
1.82
2.83
0.0%
2023Q3
92
62.0
3.58
0.42
1.28
1.88
3.31
0.0%
2023Q2
91
69.5
3.11
0.28
1.13
1.70
2.65
0.1%
2023Q1
90
68.4
2.92
0.18
1.14
1.61
2.54
0.0%
2022Q4
92
74.8
2.32
0.17
0.78
1.36
2.10
0.0%
2022Q3
92
74.5
2.51
0.26
0.93
1.33
2.13
0.0%
2022Q2
91
78.9
2.37
0.23
0.76
1.39
2.17
0.0%
2022Q1
90
72.9
1.84
0.17
0.57
1.09
1.64
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
F
2025-04-25
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-04-25
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-04-25
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
J
2025-05-24
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
F
2025-05-24
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
F
2025-08-08
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-04-25
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
E
2025-08-08
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
E
2025-05-24
2024-03-07
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-04-06
2024-03-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-04-06
2022-04-26
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2022-06-01
2022-04-26
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2022-06-01
2022-04-26
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-06-01
2022-04-26
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2022-06-01
2022-04-26
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-06-01
2022-04-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2022-06-01
2020-02-12
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2020-03-18
2020-02-12
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2020-03-18
2020-02-12
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2020-03-18
2020-02-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2020-03-18
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
WELLINGTON HEALTHCARE SERVICES LP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2007-07-31
current
pecos_ownership
ANDREWS, JAMES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2007-07-03
current
pecos_ownership
ANDREWS, JAMES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2007-07-31
current
pecos_ownership
ANDREWS, JAMES
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2012-01-10
current
pecos_ownership
ANDWELL INVESTMENTS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2012-01-10
current
pecos_ownership
BAILEY, TERESA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELKINS ROAD ASSOCIATES LLC
GENERAL PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2007-07-31
current
pecos_ownership
KELMAN, MOSHE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NICKS SPEAKS, FELICIA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-12-20
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES ANDREWS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2012-01-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MOSHE KELMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
2%
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERESA BAILEY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
0%
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FELICIA NICKS SPEAKS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-12-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ANDREWS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2007-07-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ANDREWS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2007-07-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$1,767,380
$869,402
—
—
—
0
—
2023-06-30
$321,046
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-06-30
$315,925
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-06-30
$332,701
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 47157
acs median gross
0
$932
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47157
fmr
0
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47157
acs median gross
1
$1,052
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47157
fmr
1
$1,154
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47157
acs median gross
2
$1,163
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47157
fmr
2
$1,274
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47157
acs median gross
3
$1,396
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47157
fmr
3
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47157
acs median gross
4
$1,640
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47157
fmr
4
$1,959
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47157
acs median gross
5
$1,777
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47157
acs median gross
$1,232
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47157
acs recent mover gross
$1,412
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38053
acs median gross
1
$855
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38053
acs median gross
2
$1,040
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38053
acs median gross
3
$1,332
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38053
acs median gross
4
$1,578
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38053
acs median gross
$1,161
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38053
acs recent mover gross
$1,476
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 38053
payment standard 110
0
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
payment standard 90
0
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
safmr
0
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
payment standard 110
1
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
payment standard 90
1
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
safmr
1
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
payment standard 110
2
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
payment standard 90
2
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
safmr
2
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
payment standard 110
3
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
payment standard 90
3
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
safmr
3
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
payment standard 110
4
$2,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
payment standard 90
4
$1,746
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38053
safmr
4
$1,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.