Composite
74.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 89.4 | 76.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.63 | in index |
| billing conduct | 63.9 | 45.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 14.75 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 53.3 | 42.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.30 | in index |
| chow risk | 82.4 | 34.2 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 9.51 | in index |
| staffing risk | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 0.50 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 45.0 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 34.2 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| financial risk | 76.7 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 42.9 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 2.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 71.4 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 75.5 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 42.8 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 42.8 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 2.7 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 2.7 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.32 | -0.45 | |
| Occupancy | 0.84 | -0.43 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.32 | -0.88 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.84 | -0.41 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | +0.39 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 5.32 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.59 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 5.11 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 5.40 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 41.4 | 5.32 | 0.59 | 1.67 | 3.06 | 5.11 | 9.7% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 43.3 | 5.19 | 0.56 | 1.69 | 2.94 | 4.90 | 13.9% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 39.2 | 5.27 | 0.55 | 1.80 | 2.93 | 5.02 | 7.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 36.9 | 5.50 | 0.49 | 1.98 | 3.03 | 5.32 | 7.5% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 38.0 | 5.47 | 0.43 | 1.96 | 3.08 | 5.33 | 9.3% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 38.1 | 5.38 | 0.42 | 1.86 | 3.09 | 5.14 | 11.9% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 37.3 | 5.43 | 0.42 | 1.85 | 3.16 | 5.19 | 6.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 40.3 | 5.03 | 0.30 | 1.74 | 2.99 | 4.98 | 8.7% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 35.2 | 5.74 | 0.22 | 2.04 | 3.48 | 5.50 | 10.3% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 33.4 | 5.99 | 0.87 | 1.77 | 3.35 | 5.42 | 8.9% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 34.3 | 5.54 | 0.76 | 1.63 | 3.15 | 5.15 | 5.1% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 31.2 | 5.50 | 0.66 | 1.53 | 3.31 | 5.19 | 8.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 23.9 | 5.81 | 0.76 | 1.78 | 3.26 | 5.56 | 10.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 24.5 | 5.44 | 0.54 | 1.62 | 3.28 | 5.09 | 8.5% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 24.3 | 5.21 | 0.63 | 1.53 | 3.06 | 4.78 | 5.7% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 20.0 | 5.14 | 0.61 | 1.54 | 2.99 | 5.03 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2025-05-09 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | B | 2025-05-09 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-05-09 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-05-09 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2025-05-09 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-05-09 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | D | 2025-05-09 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | B | 2025-05-09 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | D | 2025-05-09 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-05-09 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | B | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | B | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0813 | Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | B | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2023-08-22 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-08-22 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-08-22 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | D | 2023-08-22 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | B | 2023-08-22 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-08-22 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-08-22 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-08-22 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | B | 2023-08-22 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2023-08-22 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | E | 2023-08-22 |
| 2023-08-03 | Health | F0909 | Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame. | D | 2023-08-22 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPIEKER 1991 TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 71% | 2016-08-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BOURNE, TROY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2016-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CURRIE, RYAN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2020-10-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CURRIE, RYAN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2016-08-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SPIEKER CLC LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2016-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SPIEKER, MEGHAN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2016-08-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SPIEKER, WARREN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2016-08-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RYAN CURRIE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 10% | 2020-10-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RYAN CURRIE | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2016-08-10 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TROY BOURNE | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2016-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MEGHAN SPIEKER | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 8% | 2016-08-10 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| WARREN SPIEKER | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 8% | 2016-08-10 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06059 | acs median gross | 0 | $2,100 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06059 | fmr | 0 | $2,682 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06059 | acs median gross | 1 | $2,115 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06059 | fmr | 1 | $2,746 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06059 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,460 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06059 | fmr | 2 | $3,236 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06059 | acs median gross | 3 | $3,107 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06059 | fmr | 3 | $4,393 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06059 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06059 | fmr | 4 | $5,246 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06059 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06059 | acs median gross | $2,434 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06059 | acs recent mover gross | $2,814 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 92694 | acs median gross | 0 | $2,631 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92694 | acs median gross | 1 | $2,291 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92694 | acs median gross | 2 | $3,288 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92694 | acs median gross | 3 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92694 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92694 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92694 | acs median gross | $3,454 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 92694 | acs recent mover gross | $3,469 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 92694 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $3,850 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $3,150 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | safmr | 0 | $3,500 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $3,938 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $3,222 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | safmr | 1 | $3,580 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $4,642 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $3,798 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | safmr | 2 | $4,220 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $6,303 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $5,157 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | safmr | 3 | $5,730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $7,524 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $6,156 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92694 | safmr | 4 | $6,840 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |