Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

5,801–5,850

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5801	Heartsworth Center For Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.2%	61.8	C	OK	Vinita	146	RIVERS EDGE OPERATIONS II LLC
5802	ST JOE MANOR	0.2%	61.8	B	MO	BONNE TERRE	155	—
5803	CHESTNUT PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.2%	61.8	C	NY	ONEONTA	80	—
5804	King Nursing & Rehabilitation Community	0.2%	61.8	B	MI	Houghton Lake	61	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
5805	AVALON SPRINGS HEALTH CAMPUS	0.2%	61.8	C	IN	VALPARAISO	61	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
5806	PRESENTATION REHAB AND SKILLED CARE CENTER	0.2%	61.8	B	MA	BOSTON	122	ASCENTRIA CARE ALLIANCE INC
5807	THE TERRACE	0.2%	61.8	F	IL	WAUKEGAN	115	LAUREATE CHICAGOLAND HOLDINGS LLC
5808	SPRINGHILL VILLAGE	0.2%	61.8	A	IN	TERRE HAUTE	99	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
5809	HAMPSHIRE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.2%	61.8	A	WV	ROMNEY	30	VALLEY HEALTH SYSTEM
5810	SAINT MARY'S VILLA NURSING HOM	0.2%	61.8	A	PA	MOSCOW	112	COVENANT HEALTH
5811	Good Samaritan Society - Battle Lake	0.2%	61.8	A	MN	BATTLE LAKE	51	SANFORD
5812	Maple Grove Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	61.8	C	NC	Greensboro	210	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
5813	Alta Heights Post Acute	0.2%	61.8	A	TN	GOODLETTSVILLE	90	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
5814	CARMEL HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	0.2%	61.8	C	IN	CARMEL	188	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
5815	MANCHESTER REHAB AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	61.8	F	MO	BALLWIN	137	AMA HOLDINGS LLC
5816	Westview Acres Care Center	0.2%	61.8	A	IA	Leon	46	STEGOTEK INC
5817	EXTENDED CARE HOSPITAL OF WESTMINSTER	0.2%	61.8	A	CA	WESTMINSTER	99	—
5818	Good Samaritan Society - Beatrice	0.2%	61.8	C	NE	Beatrice	80	SANFORD
5819	Ambassador Health of Omaha	0.2%	61.8	A	NE	Omaha	146	AMBASSADOR HOLDING COMPANY
5820	THE COMMONS SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.2%	61.8	B	MA	LINCOLN	32	—
5821	CENTRAL PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.2%	61.8	B	NY	SYRACUSE	160	—
5822	FORT MYERS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.2%	61.8	A	FL	FORT MYERS	120	—
5823	OUR LADY OF PEACE INC	0.2%	61.8	A	VA	CHARLOTTESVILLE	30	—
5824	Oak Creek Rehabilitation Center of Kimberly	0.2%	61.8	B	ID	Kimberly	57	—
5825	ANGELS NURSING HEALTH CENTER	0.2%	61.8	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	49	—
5826	THE NURSING AND REHAB CENTER AT STADIUM PLACE	0.2%	61.8	B	MD	BALTIMORE	49	—
5827	DESOTO HEALTH AND REHAB	0.2%	61.8	A	FL	ARCADIA	78	—
5828	FOREST MANOR HEALTH AND REHAB	0.2%	61.8	A	AL	NORTHPORT	182	—
5829	Ambler Extended Care Center	0.2%	61.8	A	PA	AMBLER	100	—
5830	CLAIBORNE COUNTY SENIOR CARE	0.2%	61.8	A	MS	PORT GIBSON	65	—
5831	WEIRTON MEDICAL CENTER	0.2%	61.8	B	WV	WEIRTON	33	WEST VIRGINIA UNITED HEALTH SYSTEM INC
5832	WILLOW CROSSING HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	61.8	B	IN	COLUMBUS	112	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5833	Accura Healthcare of Muscatine	0.2%	61.8	C	IA	Muscatine	100	AVENUE94 LLC
5834	SKYLINE TERRACE CONV HOME	0.2%	61.8	A	VA	WOODSTOCK	70	—
5835	ALARIS HEALTH AT ST MARYS	0.2%	61.8	F	NJ	ORANGE	188	—
5836	LA VIDA SERENA NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	61.8	C	TX	DEL RIO	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
5837	OHMAN FAMILY LIVING AT HOLLY	0.2%	61.8	A	OH	NEWBURY	92	—
5838	Sterling Health Care and Rehab Center	0.2%	61.8	A	PA	MEDIA	164	—
5839	THE VILLAGE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	61.8	C	CA	HEMET	54	STRINGER FAMILY PARTNERSHIP
5840	THE MCKENDREE POST ACUTE & REHABILITATION	0.2%	61.8	D	TN	HERMITAGE	180	SAESSY IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5841	NIGHTINGALE AT GLENWOOD	0.2%	61.8	B	AR	GLENWOOD	80	SRI NIGHTINGALE LLC
5842	CRAIGHEAD NURSING CENTER	0.2%	61.8	A	AR	JONESBORO	121	—
5843	ALTERA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	61.8	C	AL	FAIRHOPE	83	GNH IRRV TR
5844	Roberta Trails of Journey LLC	0.2%	61.8	B	GA	ROBERTA	100	BARRES LLC
5845	Hadley Pointe Nursing Rehab & Care	0.2%	61.8	F	MA	HADLEY	154	—
5846	MIDDLETOWN PARK REHAB & HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	61.8	B	NY	MIDDLETOWN	230	—
5847	BEAR MOUNTAIN AT SUDBURY	0.2%	61.8	C	MA	SUDBURY	142	BEAR MOUNTAIN HEALTHCARE LLC
5848	SAN REMO	0.2%	61.8	D	TX	RICHARDSON	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5849	PROVIDENCE SEWARD MOUNTAIN HAVEN	0.2%	61.8	A	AK	SEWARD	40	PROVIDENCE HEALTH & SERVICES WASHINGTON
5850	SEA CREST NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	61.8	A	NY	BROOKLYN	320	—

Showing 5,801–5,850 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.