Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

5,051–5,100

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5051	BELVEDERE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC	0.3%	66.9	C	AR	HOT SPRINGS	119	—
5052	Accura Healthcare of Ottumwa	0.3%	66.9	A	IA	Ottumwa	60	—
5053	SERENITY SPRING SENIOR LIVING AT NORTHWOOD	0.3%	66.9	D	IN	JASPER	107	GREENE COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL
5054	CALCASIEU COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.3%	66.9	C	LA	LAKE CHARLES	120	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
5055	HILLSIDE MANOR REHAB & EXTENDED CARE CENTER	0.3%	66.9	C	NY	JAMAICA EST	400	—
5056	FARIBAULT CARE CENTER	0.3%	66.9	—	MN	FARIBAULT	55	—
5057	AVIATA AT ST CLOUD	0.3%	66.9	B	FL	SAINT CLOUD	120	—
5058	MAYWOOD TERRACE LIVING CENTER	0.3%	66.9	C	MO	INDEPENDENCE	89	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
5059	WOODLAND HILLS NURSING CENTER	0.3%	66.9	—	OK	ALLEN	49	—
5060	SOUTHLAND HEALTHCARE AND REHAB CENTER	0.3%	66.9	F	GA	DUBLIN	126	REGIONAL HEALTH PROPERTIES INC
5061	GOLETA VALLEY COTTAGE HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.3%	66.9	—	CA	SANTA BARBARA	55	—
5062	BEAVER DAM NURSING & REHAB CENTER, INC	0.3%	66.9	B	KY	BEAVER DAM	58	—
5063	BELCOURT TERRACE NURSING HOME	0.3%	66.9	—	TN	NASHVILLE	49	—
5064	Briarcliff Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	66.9	D	TX	McAllen	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
5065	Bartlesville Health and Rehabilitation Community	0.3%	66.9	C	OK	Bartlesville	119	—
5066	Good Samaritan Society - Wagner	0.3%	66.9	—	SD	WAGNER	50	—
5067	GLENWOOD SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.3%	66.9	B	OK	GLENPOOL	119	BRIDGES ESOP INC
5068	Patriot Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	66.9	B	TN	PARIS	127	TN3 OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
5069	BUCKINGHAM AT NORWOOD, THE	0.3%	66.9	F	NJ	NORWOOD	240	—
5070	ABUNDANT CHRISTIAN LIVING COMMUNITY REHABILITATION	0.3%	66.9	A	TN	JOHNSON CITY	103	—
5071	LAMAR ESTATES NURSING CENTER	0.3%	66.9	C	CO	LAMAR	60	—
5072	FOCUSED CARE AT LAMESA	0.3%	66.9	C	TX	LAMESA	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5073	The Neighborhoods of White Lake	0.3%	66.9	A	MI	White Lake	39	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
5074	BEAUMONT HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	66.9	B	TX	BEAUMONT	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5075	COLLEGE PARK REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	66.9	A	NV	NORTH LAS VEGAS	188	—
5076	LAKEWOOD CARE CENTER	0.3%	66.9	A	MN	BAUDETTE	32	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
5077	SHARKEY-ISSAQUENA NURSING HOME	0.3%	66.9	A	MS	ROLLING FORK	54	—
5078	BETHEL POINTE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.3%	66.9	B	IN	MUNCIE	114	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
5079	Promontory Point Rehabilitation	0.3%	66.9	A	ID	Ammon	50	—
5080	MERAMEC NURSING	0.3%	66.9	B	MO	SULLIVAN	60	GC ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC
5081	MIAMI SHORES NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.3%	66.9	A	FL	MIAMI	99	—
5082	SHADESCREST HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	66.9	A	AL	JASPER	107	—
5083	MEADE DISTRICT HOSP LTCU DBA LONE TREE RETIREMENT	0.3%	66.9	A	KS	MEADE	45	—
5084	VALLEY VIEW REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	66.9	A	PA	MONTOURSVILLE	163	—
5085	ROCKVILLE SKILLED NURSING & REHAB CENTER, L L C	0.3%	66.9	A	NY	ROCKVILLE CENTRE	66	—
5086	Rehabilitation Center of South Georgia	0.3%	66.9	C	GA	TIFTON	178	—
5087	UNIVERSITY PLACE HEALTH CENTER AND ASSISTED LIVING	0.3%	66.4	A	IN	WEST LAFAYETTE	30	FRANCISCAN SISTERS OF CHICAGO SERVICES CORPORATION
5088	HOUSE OF GRACE NURSING FACILITY	0.3%	66.4	—	OK	MOORELAND	62	—
5089	MISSION LODGE SANITARIUM	0.3%	66.4	—	CA	SAN GABRIEL	59	—
5090	PITTSFIELD MANOR	0.3%	66.4	D	IL	PITTSFIELD	89	—
5091	HAMPTON WOODS NURSING CENTER, INC	0.3%	66.4	A	OH	POLAND	70	—
5092	VINEYARDS AT CONCORD, THE	0.3%	66.4	A	OH	FRANKFORT	32	—
5093	THE ATRIUM OF BELLMEAD	0.3%	66.4	B	TX	BELLMEAD	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5094	LIGHTHOUSE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	66.4	B	MA	REVERE	123	—
5095	GREYSTONE NURSING AND REHAB, LLC	0.3%	66.4	A	AR	CABOT	80	—
5096	Hamilton Health Services	0.3%	66.4	B	WI	Two Rivers	125	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
5097	UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.3%	66.4	A	NY	BRONX	46	—
5098	CORAL GABLES NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	66.4	B	FL	MIAMI	87	—
5099	RAYBURN HEALTH CARE & REHABILITATION	0.3%	66.4	B	TX	JASPER	0	—
5100	WILKINS HEALTH & REHABILITATION COMMUNITY	0.3%	66.4	A	OK	DUNCAN	118	—

Showing 5,051–5,100 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.