Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,651–4,700

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4651	Schulenburg Regency Nursing Center	0.3%	69.5	C	TX	Schulenburg	0	OAK MANOR, INC
4652	UNION PLAZA CARE CENTER	0.3%	69.5	A	NY	FLUSHING	280	—
4653	Elmbrook Home	0.3%	69.5	B	OK	Ardmore	126	ELMBROOK PROPERTIES INC
4654	OTTERBEIN AT MAINEVILLE	0.3%	69.5	A	OH	MAINEVILLE	60	OTTERBEIN HOME
4655	WINGATE AT SILVER LAKE	0.3%	69.5	B	MA	KINGSTON	164	—
4656	ANNISTON HEALTH AND REHAB SERVICES	0.3%	69.5	A	AL	ANNISTON	85	NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES INC
4657	Legacy at Corsicana Rehabilitation and Healthcare	0.3%	69.5	D	TX	CORSICANA	0	QUALITY CARE GIVERS INC
4658	Crestview Healthcare Residence	0.3%	69.5	C	TX	Waco	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
4659	LAKEPOINT EL DORADO, LLC	0.3%	69.5	F	KS	EL DORADO	75	MANHATTAN RETIREMENT FOUNDATION INC
4660	MEDICALODGES KINSLEY	0.3%	69.5	C	KS	KINSLEY	42	MEDICALODGES INC
4661	DITMAS PARK CARE CENTER	0.3%	69.5	C	NY	BROOKLYN	200	—
4662	Corning Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare	0.3%	69.5	A	NY	Corning	120	—
4663	Holston Health and Rehabilitation	0.3%	69.5	F	VA	WYTHEVILLE	137	ARK POST ACUTE NETWORK LLC
4664	LESLIE LAKES RETIREMENT CENTER	0.3%	69.5	C	LA	ARCADIA	150	DCZ HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
4665	SUSQUEHANNA NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER, L L C	0.3%	69.5	C	NY	JOHNSON CITY	160	—
4666	CRESTWOOD MANOR	0.3%	69.5	A	CA	MODESTO	194	—
4667	MAJESTIC CARE OF TERRE HAUTE	0.3%	69.5	B	IN	TERRE HAUTE	104	MAJOR HOSPITAL
4668	Chautauqua Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	69.5	B	NY	DUNKIRK	216	—
4669	GOOD SAMARITAN REHAB AND CARE CENTER	0.3%	69.5	A	CA	STOCKTON	98	—
4670	PLATTSBURGH REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	69.5	A	NY	PLATTSBURGH	89	—
4671	ST MARTHA CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE	0.3%	69.5	B	PA	DOWNINGTOWN	120	—
4672	Mini-Cassia Care Center	0.3%	69.5	A	ID	Burley	68	QUEST FLP
4673	ARBOR GRACE WELLNESS CENTER	0.3%	69.5	D	TX	LITTLEFIELD	0	—
4674	GRACELAND REHABILITATION AND NURSING CARE CENTER	0.3%	69.5	F	TN	MEMPHIS	240	—
4675	Mentor Hills Post Acute	0.3%	69.5	C	OH	MENTOR	147	DMD MANAGEMENT INC
4676	MIONA GERIATRIC & DEMENTIA CENTER	0.3%	69.5	A	GA	IDEAL	88	—
4677	PARKVIEW HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	69.5	B	CA	ANAHEIM	41	—
4678	Zearing Health Care, LLC	0.3%	69.5	A	IA	Zearing	40	—
4679	ST ANTHONY COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.3%	69.5	C	LA	METAIRIE	124	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
4680	GULF COAST MEDICAL CENTER SKILLED NURSING UNIT	0.3%	69.5	B	FL	FORT MYERS	75	LEE HEALTH SYSTEM INC
4681	CIMARRON NURSING CENTER	0.3%	69.5	A	OK	KINGFISHER	92	TIFFANY SEAY EXEMPT TR
4682	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	0.3%	69.5	B	IN	HOPE	75	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
4683	RENAISSANCE TERRACE	0.3%	69.5	B	TN	HARRIMAN	130	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
4684	Pine Creek Rehabilitation and Nursing	0.3%	69.5	F	UT	Salt Lake City	34	—
4685	NORTH WOODS VILLAGE	0.3%	69.5	C	IN	KOKOMO	155	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
4686	GOLDEN GATE REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	69.5	C	NY	STATEN ISLAND	238	—
4687	AVIATA AT COUNTRYSIDE	0.3%	69.5	B	FL	PALM HARBOR	120	—
4688	PINE CREST GUEST HOME INC	0.3%	69.5	A	MS	HAZLEHURST	55	—
4689	BRIARWOOD NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER,INC	0.3%	69.5	B	AR	LITTLE ROCK	120	—
4690	SUMMIT HEALTH AND LIVING	0.3%	69.5	A	IN	SUMMITVILLE	34	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
4691	HARMONY CARE AT FLORESVILLE	0.3%	69.5	C	TX	FLORESVILLE	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4692	THE SPRINGS OF PINE BLUFF	0.3%	69.5	A	AR	PINE BLUFF	103	—
4693	ANDERSON, THE	0.3%	69.5	C	OH	CINCINNATI	100	—
4694	PARK SHORE	0.3%	69.0	A	WA	SEATTLE	28	PRESBYTERIAN RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES NORTHWEST
4695	The Orchards at Roseville	0.3%	69.0	C	MI	Roseville	169	—
4696	La Bella of Aurora	0.3%	69.0	F	IL	AURORA	68	—
4697	KIRTLAND WOODS OF JOURNEY	0.3%	69.0	D	OH	KIRTLAND	177	AJOJ HOLDINGS LLC
4698	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT MEMORIAL BRIDGE	0.3%	69.0	D	NJ	PENNS GROVE	161	—
4699	Bethany Home	0.3%	69.0	B	WI	Waupaca	100	—
4700	HIGHLAND PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	69.0	B	NY	WELLSVILLE	80	—

Showing 4,651–4,700 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.