Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,501–4,550

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4501	HILLCREST HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.4%	70.3	B	TN	ASHLAND CITY	95	—
4502	WILTON MEADOWS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	70.3	C	CT	WILTON	148	—
4503	KONA COMMUNITY HOSPITAL	0.4%	70.3	—	HI	KEALAKEKUA	18	—
4504	LYONSVIEW HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	70.3	A	TN	KNOXVILLE	222	—
4505	Good Samaritan Society - Lakota	0.4%	70.3	B	ND	LAKOTA	38	SANFORD
4506	OHIO LIVING SARAH MOORE	0.4%	70.3	A	OH	DELAWARE	47	—
4507	OCOEE TRANSITIONAL CARE CENTER LLC	0.4%	70.3	A	TN	MARYVILLE	76	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
4508	Wynhoven Community Care Center	0.4%	70.3	B	LA	Marrero	188	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
4509	HARRY AND JEANETTE WEINBERG CARE CENTER	0.4%	70.3	B	HI	KANEOHE	44	SANFORD
4510	Conesus Lake Nursing Home, LLC	0.4%	70.3	A	NY	Livonia	48	—
4511	MONTGOMERY CHILDREN'S SPECIALTY CENTER	0.4%	70.3	A	AL	MONTGOMERY	54	—
4512	WINDCREST HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.4%	70.3	B	TX	ABILENE	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
4513	NEW EAST SIDE NURSING HOME	0.4%	70.3	C	NY	NEW YORK	58	—
4514	Houston Heights Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.4%	70.3	B	TX	Houston	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
4515	ELDERWOOD AT WILLIAMSVILLE	0.4%	70.3	C	NY	WILLIAMSVILLE	200	—
4516	Bremond Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.4%	70.3	C	TX	Bremond	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
4517	AVIATA AT BROOKSVILLE	0.4%	70.3	B	FL	BROOKSVILLE	120	—
4518	Lincoln Park Nursing and Rehab LLC	0.4%	70.3	D	WI	RACINE	122	—
4519	JUNIPER VILLAGE AT BROOKLINE-REHABILITATION AND SK	0.4%	70.3	C	PA	STATE COLLEGE	116	JUNIPER MANAGEMENT LLC
4520	Good Samaritan Society - Auburn	0.4%	70.3	C	NE	Auburn	102	SANFORD
4521	On With Life Long Term Care	0.4%	70.3	A	IA	Polk City	40	ON WITH LIFE INC
4522	BLUFFS, THE	0.4%	70.3	B	MO	COLUMBIA	132	—
4523	Premier Healthcare at Harrington House	0.4%	70.3	D	MA	WALPOLE	90	—
4524	CURA OF LONG PRAIRIE	0.4%	70.3	B	MN	LONG PRAIRIE	60	—
4525	MILTON HOME, THE	0.4%	70.3	A	IN	SOUTH BEND	34	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
4526	Steuben Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare	0.4%	70.3	A	NY	Bath	105	—
4527	Nursing Center at La Posada, The	0.4%	70.3	A	FL	PALM BEACH GARDENS	40	—
4528	OAK CREST	0.4%	70.3	A	IL	DEKALB	17	—
4529	THE GRAND REHABILITATION AND NURSING AT QUEENS	0.4%	70.3	A	NY	WHITESTONE	179	—
4530	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT VINELAND	0.4%	70.3	C	NJ	VINELAND	190	—
4531	CAPRI HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	70.3	C	FL	VENICE	129	—
4532	GLENBROOK	0.4%	70.3	A	CA	CARLSBAD	94	—
4533	Good Samaritan Society - Jackson	0.4%	70.3	A	MN	JACKSON	46	SANFORD
4534	Kenansville Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	0.4%	70.3	B	NC	Kenansville	92	—
4535	ALTHEA WOODLAND NURSING HOME	0.4%	70.3	A	MD	SILVER SPRING	50	—
4536	PRAIRIEVIEW AT THE GARLANDS	0.4%	70.3	A	IL	BARRINGTON	20	—
4537	Walnut Grove Care & Rehab Center	0.4%	70.3	C	OK	McAlester	80	JFB OK TRUST
4538	LUTHERAN LIFE VILLAGES	0.4%	70.3	A	IN	FORT WAYNE	84	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
4539	FRANKLIN NURSING HOME	0.4%	70.3	B	TX	FRANKLIN	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4540	LOFT REHAB OF ROCK SPRINGS, THE	0.4%	70.3	F	IL	DECATUR	195	—
4541	NORTHWEST FLORIDA COMMUNITY HOSPITAL (SNU)	0.4%	70.3	A	FL	CHIPLEY	34	—
4542	GARDEN VILLAGE	0.4%	70.3	B	WA	YAKIMA	101	—
4543	SEABURY	0.4%	70.3	B	CT	BLOOMFIELD	72	HEALTHPRO HERITAGE LLC
4544	OAK VIEW HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	70.3	A	FL	ORANGE PARK	120	—
4545	Trinity Elms	0.4%	70.3	B	NC	Clemmons	100	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
4546	JOHN J HAINKEL JR HOME AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	70.3	B	LA	NEW ORLEANS	142	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
4547	Alpine Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.4%	70.3	B	OH	XENIA	99	AAA EMINENT LLC
4548	Corewell Health Grand Rapids Hospitals Rehabilitat	0.4%	70.3	B	MI	Grand Rapids	120	COREWELL HEALTH
4549	CARMEL HOME	0.4%	70.3	A	KY	OWENSBORO	18	—
4550	Edenbrook of Oshkosh	0.4%	70.3	C	WI	Oshkosh	110	—

Showing 4,501–4,550 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.