Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,201–4,250

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4201	WATERFORD PLACE HEALTH CAMPUS	0.4%	72.6	B	IN	KOKOMO	103	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
4202	JESMOND NURSING HOME	0.4%	72.6	A	MA	NAHANT	57	—
4203	THE VILLAGE AT HERITAGE OAKS	0.4%	72.6	C	TX	CORSICANA	0	QUALITY CARE GIVERS INC
4204	FOUNTAINVIEW CARE CENTER	0.4%	72.6	D	NJ	LAKEWOOD	123	EZ CARE
4205	LEGACY PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	72.6	C	TN	KNOXVILLE	176	—
4206	MEMORIAL HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	72.6	A	TX	SEMINOLE	40	—
4207	PREMIER NSG & REHAB CENTER OF FAR ROCKAWAY	0.4%	72.6	B	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	183	—
4208	ST MARY'S CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE	0.4%	72.6	C	NJ	CHERRY HILL	215	—
4209	Sugar Land Health Care Center	0.4%	72.6	B	TX	Sugar Land	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4210	WASHINGTON SENIOR LIVING	0.4%	72.6	C	IL	WASHINGTON	122	ATRU LLC
4211	FITCHBURG REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.4%	72.6	D	MA	FITCHBURG	87	—
4212	Charter House Inc	0.4%	72.4	C	MN	ROCHESTER	32	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
4213	UPMC NORTHWEST TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT	0.4%	72.4	A	PA	SENECA	16	UPMC
4214	ST BENEDICTS HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	72.4	A	ND	DICKINSON	120	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
4215	Avina of Sun Prairie	0.4%	72.4	A	WI	Sun Prairie	50	—
4216	MILL MANOR CARE CENTER	0.4%	72.4	A	OH	VERMILION	33	—
4217	Avir at Cisco	0.4%	72.4	B	TX	CISCO	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4218	WATERS OF GREENCASTLE, THE	0.4%	72.4	C	IN	GREENCASTLE	100	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
4219	INGRAHAM MANOR REHAB AND NURSING	0.4%	72.4	C	CT	BRISTOL	128	—
4220	SUNNY ACRES SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION CTR	0.4%	72.4	A	MA	CHELMSFORD	93	—
4221	MOUNTAIN VILLA NURSING CENTER	0.4%	72.4	B	TX	EL PASO	0	—
4222	PREFERRED CARE AT CUMBERLAND	0.4%	72.4	C	NJ	BRIDGETON	196	—
4223	Good Samaritan Society - Bloomfield	0.4%	72.4	C	NE	Bloomfield	70	SANFORD
4224	MEDINA CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.4%	72.4	C	OH	MEDINA	80	—
4225	ARBOR SPRINGS HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER, LTD	0.4%	72.4	B	AL	OPELIKA	225	TRAYLOR PORTER HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
4226	Maine Veterans Home - So Paris	0.4%	72.4	A	ME	SOUTH PARIS	62	MAINE VETERANS HOME
4227	OASIS AT THE CONCH REPUBLIC NURSING AND REHAB	0.4%	72.4	D	FL	KEY WEST	120	—
4228	Windsor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center of Alice	0.4%	72.4	F	TX	Alice	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
4229	CHAPEL WOODS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	72.4	D	AR	WARREN	140	OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4230	ROBINSON NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER LLC	0.4%	72.4	B	AR	NORTH LITTLE ROCK	110	—
4231	Fairport Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	0.4%	72.4	B	NY	Fairport	196	—
4232	WYNFIELD PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	72.4	B	GA	ALBANY	186	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4233	ENID SENIOR CARE	0.4%	72.4	B	OK	ENID	102	MARSH POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
4234	Heritage Park of Katy Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.4%	72.4	C	TX	Katy	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
4235	JOSHUA TREE CARE CENTER	0.4%	72.4	B	OH	NORTH OLMSTED	36	—
4236	ELMHURST EXTENDED CARE CENTER	0.4%	72.4	F	IL	ELMHURST	108	—
4237	SUN HEALTH GRANDVIEW CARE CENTER	0.4%	72.4	B	AZ	SUN CITY WEST	72	SUN HEALTH SERVICES
4238	Dubuque Specialty Care	0.4%	72.4	C	IA	Dubuque	84	CARE INITIATIVES
4239	ALTENHEIM HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	0.4%	72.4	C	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	87	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
4240	RYDAL PARK OF PHILADELPHIA PRESBYTERY HOMES, INC	0.4%	72.4	A	PA	RYDAL	114	HUMANGOOD
4241	HUDSON ELMS NURSING CENTER	0.4%	72.4	D	OH	HUDSON	50	—
4242	NATCHITOCHES COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.4%	72.4	B	LA	NATCHITOCHES	120	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
4243	Roubal Care and Rehabilitation Center	0.4%	72.4	A	MI	Stephenson	39	—
4244	WASHINGTON HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.4%	72.4	C	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	94	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
4245	CABOT HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	0.4%	72.4	B	AR	CABOT	89	—
4246	OLD BROWNLEE COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.4%	72.4	A	LA	BOSSIER CITY	89	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
4247	Dubois Nursing Home	0.4%	72.4	C	PA	DUBOIS	140	CHR CONSULTING SERVICES INC
4248	WE CARE SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.4%	72.4	A	CA	HAYWARD	28	—
4249	JERSEYVILLE NSG & REHAB CENTER	0.4%	71.9	F	IL	JERSEYVILLE	111	—
4250	Samarkand Skilled Nursing Facility	0.4%	71.9	A	CA	Santa Barbara	63	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES

Showing 4,201–4,250 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.